SOCIAL-PSYCHOLOGY
The Dangerous Reality of Our Belief in the Future
The Biggest Illusions of All; Predictability and Control.
“If life were predictable it would cease to be life, and be without flavor.” — Eleanor Roosevelt
We try to predict the future by understanding the past and then try to control it by understanding its causes. But, there is no such thing as predictability and control. At least not in the way we want to believe.
The future is inherently unpredictable. And the more we try to control it, the more we realize our little control.
The illusion of predictability and control is a fantasy.
It’s an illusion that can have dangerous consequences.
The illusion of predictability and control can lead to bad decisions and even disastrous results. It’s essential to be aware of this illusion and to understand that the future is, by definition, unpredictable.
Only by accepting the inherent unpredictability of the future can we make sound decisions and manage risk effectively. Otherwise, we’re just fooling ourselves.
Why Do We Need Predictability and Control?
Humans are naturally drawn to predictability and control. These are the two most important factors that influence our decision-making.
We want to feel in control of our lives, and we want to know what is going to happen next.
When we are faced with uncertainty, it creates fear and anxiety. This is because humans have a natural desire for security, which can be found in predictability and control.
Predictability is essential for many reasons, but mainly because it helps us decide how we live. We plan for the future on what we think will happen next so that we can prepare ourselves accordingly and decide how much time or money to invest in something.
For example, if we think a hurricane will hit our town next week, we will stock up on supplies and prepare our homes. If we couldn’t predict weather patterns, we would be at the mercy of nature and would never be able to prepare for disasters.
Predictability is also crucial for managing risk. When we know what might happen in the future, we can take steps to avoid or mitigate the risks.
For example, suppose we know there is a high chance of floods in our area. In that case, we can take out insurance policies to protect ourselves financially if it does occur.
We can also take measures to prevent floods from happening. This could involve building levees or dams to block the water or planting trees to help absorb the water.
Control is as crucial as predictability. Feeling like we control our lives gives us a sense of security and peace of mind. We know that we can influence the outcome of events and are not powerless against the forces of nature or others.
Control also allows us to make decisions based on our values and preferences. If we want to achieve something, we can take steps to make it happen.
Control gives us agency and the ability to shape our destiny.
The Problem With Predictability and Control
The problem with predictability and control is that they are both illusions.
The future is unpredictable, and the more we try to control it, the more we realize our little control.
This is not to say that predictability and control are useless. They do have their benefits, as discussed above. But we need to be aware of the limitations of these concepts so that we don’t make decisions based on false beliefs.
The illusion of predictability and control can lead to bad decision-making and even disastrous results.
“Promises are the uniquely human way of ordering the future, making it predictable and reliable to the extent that this is humanly possible.” — Hannah Arendt
The Limits of the Human Condition
The biggest problem with predictability and control is that they are both based on the false belief that humans can understand and influence the future. This is not possible.
We can never know what will happen, no matter how much we try to predict or control it. The best we can do is make educated guesses based on past trends and current information.
Our predictions and plans will likely change as new information arises.
As the saying goes, “the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.”
This doesn’t mean we should give up on planning or trying to control our lives. We still need to make decisions and take action, even though we can’t predict or control the future.
We need to accept the inherent uncertainty of the future and learn to live with it. We need to be okay with not knowing what will happen and not being in total control.
This can be difficult to swallow, but it is essential to understanding the human condition.
When we accept that we can’t predict or control the future, we become more humble and realistic about our place in the world. We become more open to new possibilities and less attached to our plans.
We also become more resilient in the face of adversity. When things don’t go according to plan, we don’t get as upset because we expect they might not. We roll with the punches and adapt to the ever-changing world around us.
A Brief History of the Need for Control & Predictability through Human Evolution
Humans have always strived for control and predictability, which can be seen in how we have evolved throughout our existence.
We can see this in how we’ve tried to control our environment and how we’ve been attempting to control our bodies.
The need for control and predictability has been a driving force in human evolution throughout history. This need has led us to try and make sense of everything around us to create a sense of order.
In the early days of human history, we were hunter-gatherers. This meant that our survival depended on our ability to control our environment and resources. We needed to be able to find food and shelter, and we needed to be able to protect ourselves from danger.
The need for control and predictability was evident in how we tried to control our bodies. We needed to be able to reproduce to ensure the continuation of our species. We also needed to be able to defend ourselves from physical threats.
Over time, we developed more sophisticated ways of controlling our environment and ourselves. We domesticated animals learned how to grow crops, and developed better tools and weapons. We also started to develop language and writing, which allowed us to communicate our thoughts and ideas.
As we became more sophisticated, the need for control and predictability began to change. We no longer needed to worry about immediate threats to our survival. Instead, we started to worry about more abstract concepts like the future and what would happen to us after we died.
This change in focus is evident in the way that religion developed. Religion provided a way for people to feel like they had some control over the future and what would happen to them after they died.
It also gave people a sense of community and belonging, which helped to offset the feelings of uncertainty that came with living in an unpredictable world.
The need for control and predictability has also been a driving force in the development of science. We have always strived to understand our world and find ways to predict and control the things that happen in it. This desire has led us to develop theories and laws that govern how the universe works.
In recent years, there has been a growing recognition of the limitations of human knowledge. We now know that there are many things that we will never be able to understand or control fully.
This realization has led to a more humble and realistic approach to life.
We are now learning to accept the inherent uncertainty of the future and embrace the things we cannot control. We are learning to live with ambiguity and uncertainty and becoming more resilient in facing adversity.
The need for control and predictability is a natural human desire. We need to learn to accept the inherent uncertainty of life and embrace the things we cannot control. Only then can we be free.
The Emotional Conflict Between Being More Open or Closed to the Unknown
The unknown is often a scary place for people. But, it’s also an intriguing place that can lead to discoveries and opportunities. The fear of the unknown can be one of the most challenging things for people to overcome.
The conflict between being more open or closed to the unknown is a constant battle for many. It’s hard to know what will happen when exposed to something you don’t know anything about. Still, it’s also hard not to want to explore and experience something new.
Many things in life are unknown and unpredictable. But, there are also many things that we have some control over. The key is to find the balance between being open to the unknown and being closed off from it.
Being too closed off from the unknown can lead to a life of missed opportunities. We may miss out on new experiences or relationships because we’re afraid of what might happen. We may also miss out on learning or developing new skills because we resist change.
Being too open to the unknown can also be dangerous. We may put ourselves in situations beyond our control or take risks we’re unprepared for. We may also feel lost and confused if we don’t have a solid foundation to fall back on.
The key is to find a balance between the two extremes.
We need to be open to the possibilities that the unknown offers, but we also need to be aware of the risks involved. We need to be willing to take some risks, but we also need to know when it’s time to stop and turn back.
“I do not want the things I do to be easy and predictable. I want them to be real.” — Stromae
Epistemic Humility
Epistemic humility is the recognition of the limitations of human knowledge. It is the acknowledgment that there are things that we will never be able to understand or control.
Epistemic humility is often seen as a weakness, but in reality, it’s a strength. It is a sign of maturity and wisdom. It shows that we are willing to admit when we don’t know something and are open to learning new things.
Epistemic humility is necessary because it allows us to let go of the need for control and predictability. It helps us accept life’s inherent uncertainty and embrace the things we cannot control.
In conclusion, one of the biggest illusions is the belief that we can predict and control everything. We need to realize that there are many things that we will never be able to understand or control.
We need to learn to accept the inherent uncertainty of life and embrace the things we cannot control.
What do you think about epistemic humility? Do you think it’s something that people should strive for? Let us know in the comments!
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