The Real Reason Prediction Markets are Bullish on Trump
And why the smart money is still on Harris
According to most professional pollsters, as well as polling aggregators like fivethirtyeight.com, the presidential election is essentially a coin flip. But if you wander over to major prediction markets, Donald Trump is favored by a two-to-one margin. So what gives? Do the people placing bets on Trump know something we don’t?
To answer that question, it helps to ask who’s making all these bets. I couldn’t find any demographic data on prediction markets’ users. They may not even collect it, and if they do they don’t appear to be making it public. Still, that doesn’t mean we can’t draw any inferences about who those users are.
Prediction markets are essentially a form of gambling, and we know quite a lot about the demographics of that particular pastime. According to one recent study, men gamble twice as often as women and are nearly three times as likely to have a gambling addiction. (In fact, the prevalence of gambling among both men and women has increased in recent years, likely a result of online gambling options, especially sports betting. But the gender gap has persisted.)
Why is that important? Well, one of the most oft-remarked upon features of this election is the massive gender gap between…
