Why China Won’t Invade: The Little Emperors
Calculations Beyond the Battlefield
The COVID-19 pandemic offered a glimpse into the Chinese government’s handling of crises: initially, the response was lauded by many as decisive and effective. However, as the stringent lockdowns dragged on, a near total public uprising emerged. The veneer of control cracked. In an almost instant reversal, the government caved and ended the program.
The lesson reverberates — there are limits to how much the population can be pushed. A dimension not widely discussed in the possibility of war to control Taiwan is the “Little Emperors” factor.
“The Little Emperors,” a generation born of the One-Child Policy, represent a precious commodity that the masses will never tolerate being put in harm’s way. In 1979, China implemented the One-Child Policy to control a demographic projected to cause economic disaster. The result was a generation of pampered only sons and grandsons.
Now filling the ranks of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), these young men — plagued by obesity, overindulged by the two older generations, and carrying the weighty ancestral legacy — could trigger a mass revolt if endangered. These boys, untested by war or widespread hardship, may lack the toughness to be a phalanx of invaders.
Despite its totalitarian nature, China’s leadership is acutely aware of the social and political costs of actions that could lead to widespread societal disruption. Sending the “Little Emperors” into battle — the single thread upon which multiple generations’ hopes and financial securities are hung — would not just be a military gamble, but a social one.
A grueling ground invasion, dragging on and causing many casualties like the war in Ukraine, would be unsustainable. The potential loss of life would reverberate through families and the economy, likely inciting a level of dissent and unrest unseen in decades.
Thus, when it comes to Taiwan, China’s leaders are likely to remember the lessons of the pandemic. The threshold for risking the lives of their most precious demographic is exceedingly high — likely too high for a direct military confrontation.
Instead, China may continue to assert its position through economic leverage and diplomatic pressure, methods that keep the “Little Emperors” out of harm’s way, and maintain the internal harmony paramount to the Communist Party’s rule.
