Three Difference Makers for the Nuggets and Heat in the NBA Finals
Three keys that set each team apart in the championship battle
The Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat clawed their way to the NBA Finals, spoiling many people’s dreams of a Lakers-Celtics rematch. Still, it has the chance to be more exciting than people think: an eighth-seeded underdog against a #1 seed looking for their first title in franchise history.
But aside from the players and their effort on the floor, it’s the little things that will prove pivotal for each team in the 2023 Finals. Here are three keys for both the Nuggets and Heat heading into game 1 on Thursday.
Denver Nuggets
Capitalize in the Paint
The Nuggets have been the best offensive team in the playoffs with a rating of 119.7. It’s in large part to the efforts of Jokic and Murray, but also due to the number of three-level scorers in their rotation. While many are quick to point out their standout three-point shooting, the Nuggets will need to remain aggressive inside the arc to deter a scrappy Miami Heat squad.
That’s remarkably easy when both of your top options are incredible playmakers. On cuts, Denver has scored 1.27 points per possession, maintaining a 63.1% field goal percentage and drawing shooting fouls 17% of the time. They’ve displayed a knack for paint scoring throughout the playoffs, scoring 44% of their points from there, be it through drives, transition play, or pick-and-roll (1.16 PPP). The Nuggets are also facing a Heat team that has blocked the fewest shots per game in the postseason so far (3.4), and with the height and length advantage Denver holds, they should have no problem generating easy looks near the basket.
Take Advantage of Rest
While the Heat were busy fending off the Celtics for an extra week, Denver has been well-rested since their sweep of the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Now, it’s up to them to use that rejuvenated energy and shift it towards organizing their strategy and getting their bodies right.
One aspect where the days off will be crucial is in terms of transition play. The Nuggets have been one of the fastest teams throughout the playoffs with a PACE rating of 96.33 — though the Heat aren’t far behind with a rating of 95.75. Denver’s days off will prove useful in how energetic they start the series off, and setting a tone in the right direction immediately will be vital.
Force Someone Else to be the Hero
As astounding as Jimmy Butler has been throughout the playoffs, the Nuggets have found success in their defensive versatility against stars, and their battle with Jimmy Buckets is no different.
This calls upon their own supporting cast to contribute just as they’ve done all year long. Though Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Bruce Brown have all displayed their talents offensively, their effort on the defensive side of the ball — helping stop Butler while containing their own matchups — will be just as important from the jump. Butler averaged 20.5 points per game on 41.5% shooting against Denver in the regular season, but now, the Nuggets have to deal with “Playoff Jimmy.” If Denver can limit Butler’s impact on offense, it will be essential in altering the Heat’s strategy and extinguishing their flames once and for all.
Miami Heat
Protect the Paint
The Heat will have a chance to alter Denver’s dominance in the paint, and it won’t come solely from their perimeter defense. Of Miami’s main rotation, they have six players standing 6'5" or taller (seven if you count Tyler Herro, who is slated to return for game 3), all of whom are capable of disrupting looks at the rim through steals and blocks. They have a tall task of stopping a team that generates over half of their points inside the arc, but containing primary playmakers in Jokic, Murray, and Brown will be a solid first step in their paint protection. The next one is ensuring Bam Adebayo — who has averaged 3.2 fouls per game in the postseason — finds a way to remain on the floor. Otherwise, look for head coach Erik Spoelstra to turn to other avenues for help in the middle.
Contain Denver’s Three-Point Shooting (and Keep their own Threes Coming)
The next key for the Heat comes in the form of the three-point line, and the stops and buckets along with it. Throughout the playoffs, Miami has held their opponents to 32.5% shooting from distance (12.3 makes/38 attempts per game). Against a Nuggets team with a multitude of sharpshooters — all contributing to a squad that has shot 38.6% from deep in the playoffs — Miami’s perimeter defense will be an X-factor in the Finals.
The other X-factor for Miami will be, as expected, keeping their three-point shooting hot. The Heat have buried 39% of their triples this postseason, the highest mark among all 16 teams. Similar to Denver, practically everyone in Miami’s main rotation is a threat of distance, and it’s pivotal that they generate open looks — and, more importantly, knock them down — if they want to keep their title hopes alive.
Rely on Experience
Lastly, while the Nuggets come in as a rookie to the NBA Finals, the Heat have several veterans who are entering familiar territory. Udonis Haslem is entering his seventh NBA Finals, while other players such as Butler, Herro, and Lowry are entering their second. The fact that they’ve been on this stage before is reassuring for the first-timers on the roster, who haven’t backed away from the big lights and will definitely refuse to do so now.
Though a Heat vs. Nuggets Finals is not what many hoped for, it has a chance to surpass expectations and provide some more entertaining basketball in the battle for the Larry O’Brien. With most players on both sides looking for their first ring — including Miami’s nine undrafted players — this series is going to be one to remember.
