How to sign the perfect replacement? River Plate and Big Data teach
Big Data shows that Palavecino and Paradela signings fit the profile of River midfielders in recent years
In June 2019 after oscillating during the last season led by Quique Setién, the directors of Real Betis, from Spain, called a press conference to announce a reformulation in the club’s organization chart and defend themselves from criticism from the press and fans. The first one, promptly addressed, was about the failed attempt to hire a striker in the winter market, the main shortage of the squad at the time.
President Ángel Haro then admitted the deficiency in the transfer window but explained that the hiring was based, in part, on the analysis of information and statistics, reiterating the board’s confidence in the entire process. To exemplify, Haro demonstrated how the hiring of Giovanni Lo Celso had been made the previous season, to supply the imminent departure of Fabián Ruiz (who ended up sold to Napoli).
Observing that the player could be loaned by Paris Saint-Germain, the club’s Big Data department compared the statistics of the two players; result: the metrics among them were 86.5% compatible (photo below). It was found that Lo Celso was the player among the top five European leagues that most resembled Ruiz, which the bettors were about to lose.
Betis then agreed on the loan from the Argentine and subsequently hired him permanently for € 22 million. After two seasons in Spain, and a month after the press conference, Lo Celso was negotiated with Tottenham for a total of € 48 million (loan of € 16 million and purchase for € 32 million), proving to have been a great signing.
This was not the first, and it certainly will not be the last hiring decision supported by statistical information. Big Data is already used in American sports and is becoming more and more frequent in football, especially in the Europeans who used data interpretation to get Richarlison out of Fluminense, for example.
In South America, although more incipient, the analysis of the numbers seems to gain strength in some clubs. In the case of two of River Plate’s most recent signings for the 2020/21 season, the data may explain the option for certain names instead of others.
Nacho Fernández’s replacement
With a structured work since 2014 led by its coach and idol Marcelo Gallardo, River Plate has a well-defined way of playing football, with quick and short triangulations in the midfield and pressure after the loss of the ball, among other characteristics.
Supported by a prolific grassroots category since the “Gallardo era”, the “Millionario” raised € 174.3 million in player sales and in most cases, managed replacements to match, remaining competitive on the national and international scene.
During the period technically gifted midfielders became symbols of the club. Juanfer Quintero, Pity Martínez and Nacho Fernández were left-handers responsible for leading the team in great achievements, they stood out, and were later traded out of the country. The latter, more recently, was announced by Atlético Mineiro.
In order to make up for this loss, River announced in less than a week two players who play close to the same sector as Nacho: Agustín Palavecino, who was at Deportivo Cali (COL) and José Paradela, formerly Gimansia (ARG). When we analyze the numbers, the goal of the arrivals becomes even clearer: to perform the same function as the player of the brazilian club.
Fernández’s main characteristics are the vision of the game, passing between lines, finishing, dead balls and sometimes arriving in the opponent’s great area. The portal specialized in data of South American football players, Sudanalytics, carried out in 2020 a simulation to find possible substitutes for the then holder of River. In the analysis, several questions were analyzed, among them, passes in depth, defensive duels and submissions (see more here).
Among the applied filters, the study came up with a list of a series of players, including Palavecino and Paradela. Specifically in the item “submissions” (graph below), for example, both have above average accuracy (players at the top of the graph) of the other “candidates”. Compared to Fernández, the former Deportivo Cali player finishes more times on average during a match, with even greater precision, while Paradela finishes less, but still manages to hit the target more.
Agustín Palavecino
Acquired for US $ 3.5 million for 65% of his pass, Palavecino is one of the two, the most ready player and closest to the statistics of Nacho Fernández. As the graph below explains, there is still some discrepancy between the players, but the “webs” of both have almost the same format, indicating similarities in the game; it can be seen that the vertices (tips of the geometric shape) of the two tend to be more accentuated in the same questions.
The accuracy of passes, offensive actions, precision of forward passes, dribbling and expected assistances (xA) from Palavecino, for example, are very close to those of his predecessor, while making more goals by rolling the ball — he manages to write down many of his goals from penalty — and giving more passes forward (setbacks in geometric form) seem to be his main difficulties (graph below).
The range of the field that the 24-year-old player occupies (map below) is however opposite to what Fernández was used to, but the movement seems to be almost the same. For being right-handed, Palavecino usually brings the ball from the left side of the field, where he played more in Deportivo Cali, inwards, which Nacho did, but starting from the right; that is, the two receive the ball and start from different sides, but at the end of the plays they tend to end up in the same place: in the central area of the field.
It is evident when comparing the heat maps that Fernández was able to cover more areas, but it is also to be expected that with time (and instructions from Gallardo), the same will happen with the new signing of River Plate.
José Paradela: Fernández project under construction
The similarities between Paradela and Fernández, in turn, are more evident in biotype and issues outside the field. Born on the outskirts of Buenos Aires, only 134 km distance the Quiroga municipalities (where Paradela was born) from Dudignac (Nacho’s “pueblo”). Both worked at Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata before transferring to River Plate, they are left-handed and, to top it all off, Paradela will wear the number 26 shirt, the same as Nacho’s, coincidences commented by the player of Atlético Mineiro himself:
“(Paradela) It has similar characteristics. He is left-handed, plays as an attacking midfielder, so he has the same characteristics. I wish him the best in the world because he is also from a city close to mine and that the people of the city come to play in the River makes me very happy. ”
Despite so many similarities and even being defined as “mini-Nacho” by Sudanalytics, Paradela has metrics below those of Fernández (mainly in smart passes) — and even Palavecino — with a more individualistic and dribbling profile than a ball driver. However, when we compare his statistics from last season to those of Nacho in his last year of Gymnasia, the similarities will appear again (graph of the publication below).
Like Palavecino, the number of assists expected (xA), forward passes, and dribbling stand out in close proximity to Nacho’s metrics. As a young player, 22 years old, it is to be hoped that his signing will have a maturation process led by Marcello Gallardo, to add new qualities to a player who has already proved useful in other moments of the game, as in defensive duels , however, that still lacks precision.
Candidates for new owners of the River Plate midfielder, Palavecino and Paradela arrive at different levels of performance, but in the not-so-distant future they should follow the same path as their predecessors, which, after analyzing some statistics, seems to be the most likely event; River’s promising signings.
LinkedIn: theodoromontoto
