2024 Media Landscape: Revisiting Our Predictions
by Ivanka Farrell
Six months ago, in the heat of summer and in the midst of the dual WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, we made a few predictions about how those labor battles and resulting disruption to production would impact the media landscape. Did our predictions come true?
What we said: The non-scripted show war: pay attention, but stay skeptical.
What we’re seeing:
New unscripted shows have been setting records for streamers. On the reality competition side, Peacock has created the new #1 unscripted series in the U.S. across all streaming platforms with “The Traitors.” And star athletes are scoring big for streamers: “Kelce” on Prime Video had the biggest first three days ever for a documentary film in the U.S., and Netflix’s “Beckham” series had nearly 60 million views in its first week.
Live programming is also having a moment in the sun. Just this week, the Grammy Awards, fueled by a few viral moments, reported an average 16.9 million viewers — making it the most-watched Grammys ceremony since 2020 (which notably aired before the pandemic). Last month’s Golden Globes saw a similar boost. With an average of 9.4 million viewers, it was the most watched Globes since before the pandemic.
And of course, the NFL has been a ratings darling, and we haven’t even gotten to the Super Bowl (Taylor’s Version) yet.
- The NFL made up 93 of the top 100 broadcast programs in 2023.
- The Chiefs-Dolphins playoff game was the most streamed live event ever — despite being behind a paywall — with 23 million viewers.
- This was the most-watched Monday Night Football season ever for ESPN.
Live events clearly still have convening power, but eyeballs are still split across platforms, so understanding who is tuning in where is the secret to success.
What we said: Don’t count out Michael Scott — legacy titles remain important.
What we’re seeing:
Michael Scott? We meant Michael Ross. Suits, the 2010s legal drama starring the Duchess of Sussex, set a record for the most-streamed show on television sets in a single year with 57.7 billion minutes of viewing time.
Per one Nielson executive, Suits was probably new to most of those who watched it on Netflix last year. The lesson? Track those legacy titles that viewers are rewatching again and again, but don’t count out a show just because it wasn’t a hit when it aired. Pay attention to what’s being watched + what’s talked about to make sure you’re grabbing your audience’s attention.
What we said: Stay nimble — consolidation is inevitable.
What we’re seeing:
Perhaps the biggest media news of the week is the joint sports streaming platform announced by ESPN, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery.
While few details were included in the announcement, this kind of major partnership begs the question: are the days of ‘the more the merrier’ over when it comes to streaming services? Notably, even with this new joint platform, sports programming will still be split across at least three streaming platforms, in addition to linear broadcasts.
Streaming started out as a way to simplify the TV offering — and make it cheaper. Since then, every publisher under the sun has come out with their own offering and app. Though sports programming will still be split across at least three different platforms (in addition to linear broadcasts), it seems that the pendulum is definitively swinging toward consolidation.
What we said: It’s YouTube’s time to shine — revisit your investment.
What we’re seeing:
YouTube TV is now one of the largest TV providers in the country, with more than 8 million subscribers as of this week. The platform is on track to eclipse top satellite providers soon — give it a few years, and it’s likely to catch up to cable rivals, too.
“Viewers globally now watch more than 1 billion hours on average of YouTube content on their TVs every day,” Head of YouTube Neal Mohan in his annual letter. If it wasn’t clear before that YouTube is more than makeup tutorials, tech reviews, and vloggers, it certainly is now.
Our recommendation remains the same — investing in YouTube is a wise use of your ad dollars, especially if you’re focusing on YouTube TV and YouTube Select to ensure you’re in a brand-safe environment.
The moral of the story? Everything comes back into style — whether it’s a 2010s TV series, media consolidation, or those flared jeans you haven’t worn since the aughts.
Because change is the only constant in this environment, we’ve always taken an audience-first approach. Regardless of how platforms evolve and consumption habits change, what matters most is knowing where your audience spends their time.
As we continue to watch media’s continued evolution, here’s the bottom line: know your audience, stay nimble, keep track of mergers and acquisitions in the media space — and get those flared jeans out of the attic.
