Relaxing the lockdowns — what’s next?
At stage one, the coronavirus was seen by the public as a relatively mild disease limited to a few unlucky people who had recently traveled. Many governments were in the phase of denial and no preventive steps were taken. Then — when the number of death cases surged abruptly, strict measures were introduced by governments in a rush to contain the outbreaks. This second stage also included the mindset shift towards widespread understanding that coronavirus is deadly and omnipresent. Nevertheless, the common belief remained that coronavirus is short-term or seasonal and is likely to pass in 1–2 months.
Now we are entering the next phase — adapting to the new order of things, where the coronavirus is essentially a long-lasting global epidemic. Harvard scientists suggest that many preventive measures may remain in place until 2022–25. Therefore, many countries are going to move from a shock-based short-term urgent lockdowns to more weighted and less severe long-term restrictions, that will allow keeping the economies operational in the mid-term. The new regime is called to maximize economic output and productivity from one side and minimize the virus spread and the number of deaths from the other. The full lockdowns seem to be over in May-June in most countries. But, unfortunately, life will not just become what it was in February 2020, as a number of restrictions are likely to stay with us:
1. Social distancing in public will widely remain in place. Supermarkets, transportation, offices will still be required to ensure the distance between people most of the time. Moreover, not shaking hands and keeping distance in public may slowly become the new cultural norms.
2. Production and on-site service-related businesses will be allowed to open up again, but many people will continue working remotely. However, governments may encourage firms that can work remotely to continue to do so (as it is currently done in Netherlands). IT, advertising, consulting firms may voluntarily switch to remote working until end of 2020. Activities like recruiting and sales may go entirely online. Universities may continue online lectures, allowing at least some students (e.g. those with predispositions to the disease) to continue their study remotely. At the end of the day, after the government and corporate managers are done, the power of decision-making of whether to work on-site or remotely might be passed to individuals, with many people deciding for themselves. The big eye-opener will be that in many industries (especially for those relying on more than monetary compensation for their employees) working remotely does not imply productivity losses. But at the same time, it decreases the risk of a company becoming dysfunctional, because of the virus outbreak spread in the office.
3. Restaurants and cinemas will open again, bars, nightclubs, and spas might remain closed. Reopened restaurants and cafes will be required to operate at reduced capacity ensuring guests are on the safe distance between each other. Bars and nightclubs may remain closed for several more months or a year, as it is genuinely hard to prevent transmission among drunk or excited people. Concerts and festivals are likely to be abolished for another year. We will need to survive without most of the offline entertainment venues for some time. Moreover, even in places where the government will allow entertainment venues to open, they still might remain empty, due to people’s fears (e.g. in South Korea, where the epidemic is already under control, cinemas are already open, but stay empty)
4. Cross-border travel restrictions are likely to remain in place. Many countries may continue to require all newcomers to undergo 14 days quarantine, which essentially implies a ban on short-term recreational and business travel. When testing capacity scales up, mass testing of incoming passenger traffic may ease this constraint in developed markets. Developing countries that heavily rely on tourists (e.g. Dominican Republic, Sri-Lanka, Maldives) may introduce a concept of a “quarantine vacation”, where tourists are admitted into the country to stay in isolated seaside or mountain resorts and will be restricted from going outside. Nevertheless, it will take years until air travel will recover to the pre-crisis level.
5. Governments may start utilizing smartphone-based contact-tracing systems. Such a system already works in Singapore. Citizens are encouraged to install an app that tracks (via Bluetooth) all the other smartphones that appear in close distance. If one person is tested positive for the coronavirus, all the potential retrospective contacts will receive a notification with information on their exposure. Depending on the number, duration and closeness of the contacts, appropriate actions will be recommended — from paying more attention to possible early symptoms to urgent isolation. This system may mark a change form one-fits all devastating lockdown to precise and accurate digital-based containment — although potentially at a cost of individual privacy.
All those measures are disruptive to normal life as we knew it. However, looking from a wider perspective, the coronavirus pandemic is not that bad, when it comes to the long-term humanity’s survival. If another virus, potentially more dangerous, comes in the future, mankind will already be better prepared to tackle it. The 2011 “Contagion” movie with Jude Law features a fictional MEV-1 virus spreading globally — with mortality of 20–30% (comparable to Ebola), flu-like high contagion levels, and no symptoms appearing until abrupt death. Comparing to this fictional future, we are lucky that the coronavirus mortality rate is only 1–4% and symptoms are notable relatively early. Strengthened emergency response capabilities, reinforced healthcare system and population trained on such relatively less deadly virus — all of those makes humankind much more prepared and therefore better protected against possible future virus threats.
