Breakthrough
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Breakthrough

Should Labour be happy with the polls?

Labour are struggling to beat the Tories in polls despite May’s unpopularity and party infighting, but is their unprecedented rise from 23 to to 40% in a matter of months something they should celebrate?

If the latest polls are to be believed just 31% approve of the job Theresa May is doing as Prime Minister, just 28% approve of her handling of Brexit and 48% of people think she should quit before 2022. Yet, according to a BMG poll, Labour still lag 3 points behind the Tories.

Now, it should be noted that there are many other polls that show Labour ahead, but even then their leads are modest and well within the margin of error. And, the vast majority of best PM polling shows that the public would prefer the continuation of a May premiership, as opposed to Prime Minister Corbyn.

Jeremy Corbyn at a Labour IN, EU campaign event // Source: Politico

Put into the context of Ed Miliband’s polling, the data looks even worse for Labour. This time 5 years ago Labour held a double digit lead over The Conservative Party — a party that was stronger, more united, and led by a more popular figure than they currently are. With Labour infighting likely to increase due to Brexit, and the Tories being due to appoint a new leader to fight the next election, is the only way down for Labour?

Well, not exactly. While, Brexit will likely cause infighting within Labour, it will also cause infighting within the Tories and the advantage for Labour is that, unless an early election is called, they will not have implement our exit from The EU. This means that they can continue their ambiguity on the topic of our place in Europe and, won’t have to deal with the electoral consequences of Brexit.

Labour can continue their ambiguity over the topic of our place in Europe and, won’t have to deal with the electoral consequences of Brexit.

There are also worrying sounds coming out of the economy. Experts agree that during the next five years there will be, at best, a decline in growth and, at worst, a full blown recession. Yet, there is an odd sense of confidence from Conservative insiders — who believe that they will learn from the mistakes of the 2017 campaign and easily beat Corbyn in the next election. Whether they do or not has yet to be seen.

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Tom Williams

Tom Williams

Political analysis | Bylines: Rantt Media, Extra Newsfeed, PMP Magazine, Backbench, Dialogue and Discourse | Editor: Breakthrough

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