UK EU Elections — Brexit Regret?, Populist Surge? — Everything you need to know
A DIVIDED COUNTRY PROVIDES A DAMNING VERDICT ON THE GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION
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The results of the UK’s EU Elections show a deeply fragmented country that is increasingly rejecting the traditional main parties — Labour and the Conservatives — who combined got less than a quarter of votes cast. This came just two years after a general election where Labour and the Conservatives got an unprecedented 82.4% of votes. Last week’s poor showing for those parties is a clear rebuke from voters of their unclear Brexit positions. The Conservatives remain split between no-deal/ ‘hard’ Brexit advocates, supporters of Theresa May’s deal and second referendum advocates. Meanwhile, Labour is split between MP’s in leave-voting areas, such as the North and Wales, who want to leave with a deal, and the rest of their MP’s who want a second referendum and continued EU membership.
Thursday’s election showed the Brexit Party and UKIP getting 34% of the vote, while the pro-remain parties (Lib Dems, Greens, Change UK, SNP, Plaid Cyrmu) got 39% of votes cast. Meanwhile Labour lost half their MEP’s and got 14% of votes cast and, the Conservatives went from 19 to just 4 MEP’s and got less than 10% of the vote. This was clearly a rejection of the muddled-compromise positions of Labour and the Conservatives. Indeed, a bitterly divided country was able to send one clear message — that they want their parties to take bold and uncompromising positions regarding our relationship with the EU.
“a bitterly divided country was able to send a clear message”
Using this election to try and work out how Britain would vote in a second referendum is hard. It is clear that remain parties got more votes than leave parties, but neither got a majority of votes and, it’s debatable as to how to classify the Conservatives and Labour. Some would classify both parties as pro-leave as the leaders of both have expressed their desire to leave the EU with a deal. However, this ignores that fact that polling has shown that a vast majority of Labour members and supporters across all area’s of the country (including in leave-voting areas such as, the North) want to remain as well as polling in the lead up to the EU elections that showed Conservative voters equally split concerning how they voted in the 2016 Referendum.
Moreover, at 36.9%, turnout was significantly lower in these elections than what one would expect them to be in a second referendum, making it even harder to use these results to make a definite conclusion about whether voters regret Brexit. Ultimately, if one wants to know if voters still support Brexit they should look at recent polling concerning the matter. While the reputation of polls has been unfairly diminished by the EU Referendum and the American Presidential Election — the errors in each case were relatively small and within the margin-of-error — polls remain the best indicator of predicting how people will vote in upcoming and hypothetical elections and referendums.
“The reputation of polls has been unfairly diminished. They remain the best indicator of predicting how people will vote”
What recent polls suggest is that a small majority of voters would choose to remain in a second referendum. However, the leads for remaining vary greatly poll-to-poll and are usually within the margin of error — meaning that it is still possible that if a referendum was held today people would still vote leave. And, even if a small majority of voters do want to remain in the EU, that could easily change during the course of a campaign.
However, even if the results can’t tell us how a second referendum would go, they are still really important. They’ve confirmed that Labour and the Conservatives are haemorrhaging support and, have shown the stark socio-economic and geographical divides within the country — from London: where the Lib Dems won the most votes, to Scotland: where the SNP won more than twice as many votes than any other party, to the rest of Wales and England where the Brexit Party won a plurality of votes. The results also saw the breakdown of many traditional voting patterns, most notably in Wales, where before the election, Labour had won every national election — bar one — for the last century. Now, Welsh Labour are having to come to terms with the fact that fewer than 1 in 6 Welsh voters voted from them and, that they came behind the Brexit Party and Plaid Cyrmu and, were almost beaten by the Liberal Democrats.
The country’s geographical divides were stark. In Scotland, Wales, the South West and South East the votes for remain parties were greater than those for UKIP and the Brexit Party and, in the North West and East, Yorks and Humber, East of England and the, West and East Midlands the opposite was true. Results across the country make it seem clear that Brexit will be the dividing line in British politics for the foreseeable future.
These elections were also the first electoral test for Britain’s newest parties — The Brexit Party and Change UK. Nigel Farage’s new party were obviously the winner of the night, picking up 30% of votes and 29 seats, while many in Change UK were disappointed with getting just 3% of the vote and 0 seats. However, some defended Change’s performance, such as Change MP Anna Soubry, who said the results were good for a party only founded a few weeks ago. Seemingly in response to comparisons of Change’s performance with the Brexit Party’s performance, Soubry suggested that Farage’s party wasn’t “genuinely new” — echoing the idea that the Brexit Party more closely resembles a reincarnation of ‘old’ UKIP (as they are led by the parties former leader) than that of a new party and, that therefore their performance should be judged in comparison to UKIP’s in 2014, rather than in isolation. Indeed, it does seem that 2014 UKIP voters moved wholesale to the Brexit Party. Nevertheless, Farage’s party still managed to outperform UKIP’s 2014 performance by 4% and won 5 extra seats.
But, viewing Change UK as the only “genuinely new” party does make their performance seem less disappointing, though, it is undeniable that there was lost potential for the party and that trend lines are not moving in their favour. The parties actual share of the vote was less than half of what they were polling at, at the start of the campaign and, hopes that they could get high profile candidates such as, Rachel Johnson and, Gavin Esler elected failed to materialise. This is why many, including Change’s leader, Heidi Allen, are talking about joining forces with the Lib Dems — whose 20% vote share exceeded expectations.
“Viewing Change UK as the only “genuinely new” party makes their performance seem less disappointing, but, it’s undeniable that there was lost potential for the party”
These elections will likely have far-reaching effects on the policies of the Conservatives and Labour. The desertion of the Conservative base to the Brexit Party will likely push many leadership contenders to the right on the issue of Brexit — with many likely to embrace the possibility of a ‘no-deal’ or rule out a further extension of Article 50. Meanwhile, the movement of Labour’s 2017 voters in favour of the Greens and Lib Dem’s will place further pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to support a second referendum on EU membership.
Ultimately, while both sides have been able to interpret these results to strengthen their side, this election clearly disincentives both parties from compromising on Brexit and, thus increases the likelihood that the Brexit outcome will be one that many in the country find to be intolerable. Voters agree that they don’t like Labour and the Conservatives handling of Brexit, but find it impossible to agree on what the right way out of this situation is.
