What Labour and The Conservatives need to do to win a majority // a profile of key marginal seats
To win a majority at the next election Labour need to gain another 64 seats, whereas, The Conservatives need to gain just 9 more. This means, Labour still face an uphill battle to win the next election while, the Tories are in reaching distance of a majority — though the polls are going in the wrong direction for them. In this article I will explore some of the key seats that could decide the next election and, gain an insight into what it would take for Labour to take power or, for The Conservatives to tighten their grip on it.
Despite The Conservatives dim poll numbers, they do have an electoral advantage in that, they could lose the popular vote while winning the most seats. The downside for them, though, is that Labour could rely on Parliament’s third party — The SNP — to prop up their Government. However, The SNP are on the brink of political collapse — were their vote share to go down to 30% they could win as few as 6 seats. So, with the uncertainty that another hung parliament could cause, it’s easy to see why both parties are working towards a majority, however, that’s easier said than done.
Of the first 64 seats on Labour’s target list 45 are held by The Conservative, 18 by The SNP and, 1 by Plaid Cymru — the Welsh Nationalists. To win these seats on a ‘Uniform National Swing’ they would need to win a 0.32% swing from Plaid, 3.57% from The SNP and, 3.43% from The Conservatives.
Here are some more key statistics about the 64 Labour target seats;
- 29 or, 45% of the seats voted remain (higher than the national average)
- 35 or, 55% of the seats voted leave (lower than the national average)
- 44 0r, 69% of the seats have a higher than average proportion of UK born citizens
- 5 or, 8% of the seats are in The South East
- 18 or, 28% of the seats are in Scotland
- 4 or, 6% of the seats are in Wales
- 4 or, 6% of the seats are in Yorks/Humber
- Just 1 of the seats are in Sussex
- 6 0r, 9% of the seats are in London
- Just 1 seat is in Essex
- 3 or, 5% of the seats are in Anglia
- 10 or, 16% of the seats are in The Midlands
- 9 or, 14% of the seats are in The North
- 3 or, 5% of the seats are in The South West
Of the 9 seats The Conservatives would need to form a majority government, 7 are held by Labour and, 2 are held by The SNP. To reach 326 seats they would need to win a 0.26% swing from The SNP and, a 0.24% swing from Labour. If just 526 people (0.0016% of all voters) had changed their vote to Conservative in the last election they would now have an overall majority.
Here are some more key statistics about the 9 Conservative target seats;
- 4 or, 44% of the seats voted Remain (higher than the national average)
- 5 or, 56% of the seats voted Leave (lower than the national average)
- In each of the following areas there is just one of the nine targets seats; The South East, Yorks and Humber and, London
- 2 of the seats are in Scotland, both are held by The SNP
- 7 or, 78% of the seats have a higher than average proportion of UK born citizens
- 2 of the seats are in The Midlands
- 2 of the seats are in The North