Brewers By the (Jersey) Numbers ’17 — #52 Jimmy Nelson
Spring Training officially begins next week with Opening Day a mere 52 days away.
The season feels like it’ll be here before we know it and yet it’s still so very far away with a plethora of profiles to write up between now and then.
But let’s focus on the now as we take a look back at the 2016 season of…
Jimmy Nelson.
This year as I put together the schedule for this annual project, I found myself looking at February 10th and being decidedly nonplussed.
That’s not Jimmy Nelson’s fault. Well, it kind of is, I guess. Nelson the pitcher did have the season that I don’t feel like recapping, but Nelson the person is a pleasure. That’s the difference between analyst and fan — the difference between writing about the performance and writing about the person. Nelson is friendly, approachable, and though quiet is always willing to face his shortcomings and failures.
The problem is that in 2016 Nelson had a lot more of those than anyone would have liked.
Nelson truly broke into the big leagues in significant fashion in 2014 when he made 12 starts for the Brewers, pitching 69.1 innings. He posted a 4.93 ERA and lost nine games in his 14 appearances, but people saw a lot of potential in the former 2nd round draft pick. Somewhat raw, needing more polish, but he seemed as though he was here to stay.
The next year saw steps forward as Nelson made 30 starts before a late season injury (no, I don’t want to remember). He lowered his ERA by 82 points, lowered his hits allowed rate from 10.6 H/9 to 8.3 and maintained his K/9 rate. Some of his supporting statistics were worrisome as his walk rate went up. Somewhat ironically, Nelson’s FIP got worse (and much more accurate to his ERA) despite the ERA drop. Strand rate played a part.
As those numbers are compared to 2016, however, Nelson stepped back. Here are his season lines from 2015 over 2016:
2015: 177.1 IP, 30 GS, 163 H, 89 R, 18 HR, 65 BB, 148 K, 13 HBP, 96 ERA+, 4.10 FIP, 1.286 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 2.28 K/BB
2016: 179.1 IP, 32 GS, 186 H, 108 R, 25 HR, 86 BB, 140 K, 17 HBP, 92 ERA+, 5.12 FIP, 1.517 WHIP, 9.3 H/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.3 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.63 K/BB
Those bolded/italicized numbers in 2016 are stats in which he led all of baseball. 86 walks is simply an untenable number for a pitcher who has as strong of a projection as Nelson has received. Nelson has never been a big strikeout guy as generating ground balls has long been his calling card when he’s going right, so that’s not really a concern on its own. However the combination of allowing over a home run per game, significant increase in walk rate and total and consecutive seasons leading MLB in hit batsmen should scream to you that there are some control issues in Nelson’s game right now.
I’m not saying that 2017 is a make or break year for Jimmy Nelson but he will be arbitration eligible soon and must on a more regular basis begin tapping into the potential that still exists.
On the positive side of things, Nelson did make every scheduled start in 2016 and had a lot of solid-to-strong outings in them. The month of August was particularly rough for the 6'6" native Alabaman, but April and July were good months and May was Nelson’s best month last year.
Perhaps Nelson was dealing with some nagging issues in August that weren’t enough to put him on the disabled list but were enough to impact his game. Players, in the moment, are very reluctant to blame any struggles on physical well-being. They’ll say that they’re fine, that nothing is wrong, and that they’ll watch film/work on mechanics/execute better going forward. Afterwards they’ll sometimes admit to an ailment that impacted them. Nelson, at least to the media, seems to internalize all of whatever could be affecting his game. In other words, if he was hurt in August, we’re unlikely to ever know it.
But the point I’m making is that Nelson clearly has the ability, clearly has done what he needs to do. I think 2017 mostly just requires more consistency in execution.
And if I had any idea how to do that, I’d be a MLB pitching coach and not just writing about my observations and perceptions. So, as a fan, I leave that task in the capable hands of Brewers Pitching Coach Derek Johnson and Nelson himself who works hard at his craft and knows what he’s doing.
I fully expect Nelson to make 30+ starts again for the Brewers in 2017. I hope that when they’re all logged that he’s regained the ground lost from 2015 to 2016 and taken additional strides forward.
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Follow Jimmy on Twitter: @Jimmy_J_Nelson
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Looking to catch up on this season’s BBtJN? Just click on a name below:
#59 Carlos Torres
#57 Chase Anderson
#56 Ryan Webb
#54 Michael Blazek
#53 Jhan Mariñez
