Valuing Closers At The Deadline (Keeper/Dynasty Formats)

Brian Creagh
Jul 24, 2017 · 3 min read

Closers are the cherry on top of a championship fantasy baseball team. You don’t build your team around them, and very rarely do you find them laying around your minor league roster or waiver wire in dynasty formats. Closers that crop-up mid-season are almost always failed starting prospects who are still owned by other managers in your league because of what they once were thought of. Edwin Diaz, Wade Davis, Aroldis Chapman, Felipe Rivero, and other top closers of 2017 had dreams of being a starter in their minor league careers.

Closers are also the most volatile and difficult to predict position in fantasy sports. The most talented don’t always get the most opportunities, and some managers can be fickle with how they deploy the back-end of their bullpen. Just look at who has failed as a closer using pre-season rankings for 2016 and 2017:

Pre-2017 RP Rankings
Pre-2016 Closer Rankings

The rankings above should be proof enough, that turnover in the closer position is rapid and unpredictable. While some of the names crossed off on this list have returned to closer roles elsewhere, they all went through extended periods without being the team’s primary closer.

All of this is to say that closers are the most temporary assets in dynasty league formats. Their value can disappear in less than a week.

As you proceed towards the trade deadline in your dynasty/keeper formats, be sure to maximize your return on any closers you currently have rostered. if your team is out of playoff contention, you should not hold any closer on your roster after the trade deadline. I don’t care if it’s Kenley Jansen, Edwin Diaz, or any lights-out closer — the role is not guaranteed next year. The more you believe you have a multi-year solution at closer, the more that asset is going to return in the trade market, so don’t hold on to him.

The reverse is true for teams looking for a closer to gear up for a championship run — don’t move any big assets for closers. It can be easy to imitate MLB teams who are willing to move big prospects for star closers like the Cubs moving Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman, or the Yankees moving Blake Rutherford and Ian Clarkin for David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle. The value proposition is entirely different because the organization is making the decision to have these players be put in roles they desire. We don’t get to choose how players we acquire are leveraged in games, which makes them far riskier assets than the one MLB teams are acquiring.

Takeaways

  • If your dynasty team is not going to make the playoffs, trade all of your closers for whatever you can get in return;
  • If your re-draft team is a fringe playoff contender, sell your closers for bats or SPs and hope to make-up the saves elsewhere. This is your last-ditch effort to get back in the race;
  • If your dynasty team is gearing up for a championship run, don’t pay the max price for a closer. And if the closer really is the missing piece, don’t trade anything of value in 2017, instead trade prospects or draft picks that carry similar risks as a closer.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@APFantasySports) for more advice or to reach out for further questions. Or email me at APFantasySports@gmail.com.

AP Fantasy Sports

Fantasy Sports, #NBADFS, #MLBDFS, #NFLDFS, Gambling

Brian Creagh

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“Inspiration exists, but it must find you working.”

AP Fantasy Sports

Fantasy Sports, #NBADFS, #MLBDFS, #NFLDFS, Gambling

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