The quarantine is over: enriched financial data tell us about the impact on the industries

Last April, we were able to tell you about the impact of the quarantine on the industries through our enriched financial data. Now as most of businesses are re-opening again (at least in France), time has come to take a closer look at the impact of the “after-containment” on the industries. Bridge’s categorization algorithms provide in-depth statistics on the French’s expenses and incomes as people slowly go back to their daily lives.

Has quarantine impacted people’s savings?

Thanks to Bridge’s open-banking expertise, we can focus on people’s financial balance after the containment. What does the difference between the incomes and the spendings say? According to our findings, the overall balance is mostly positive. Bridge’s analysis demonstrates that people seem to have increased their balances by +700€ between February and April. More precisely, we observe:

• + 400 € increase for people whose salary is between 900€ and 1700€
• + 600 € increase for people whose salary is between 1700€ and 2500€
• + 1000 € increase for people whose salary is between 2500€ and 3300€

When looking at specific account types, we observe on average:

• an average decrease of -100 € for the life-insurances
• an average increase of +200 € for the checking accounts
• an average increase of +500 € for the checking accounts (including the French Livret A)

Does this mean that the livret A was the go-to-account of the containment? Bridge’s analysis agress with the study published by the OFCE (l’Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques, centre de recherche de SciencesPo.) according to which the French have saved up to 55 billion euros during the 8 weeks of the quarantine period.

Revenues are back up

As for our latest study, the detection of real wages is made possible, through our financial data enrichment technology. Thus, we could detect that the containment period didn’t have the same impact on different levels of salary. More precisely even though salaries have generally decreased during this period, certain population had a higher decrease.

When comparing the data from 18/02 to 10/03 and from 21/04 to 12/05, we observe the following revenue decrease:

• -5,3% for revenues between 900€ and 1700€
• -9,7% for revenues between 1700€ and 2500€
• -10,5% for revenues between 2500 and 3500€

When comparing the data from 07/02 to 06/03 and from 08/05 to 05/06, we observe the following revenue decrease:

• -12,3% for revenues between 900€ and 1700€
• -11% for revenues between 1700€ and 2500€
• -7,5% for revenues between 2500 and 3500€

However, the ending of the quarantine also means going back to work and resuming the paused activities. Thus, since May 11th, we can see that most revenues are back up.

In addition, we can see that since the ending of the containment, the number of transactions linked to the salaries slightly goes back up (without being as high as February)

• 0,2% increase for revenues between 900€ and 1700€
• 0,4% increase for revenues between 1700€ and 2500€
• -0,4% increase for revenues between 2500 and 3500€

State aids may have helped compensating the potential revenue decrease. In April our algorithms detected a revenue increase due to Pole Emploi (French unemployment agency) and due to the State Aids for Independent workers.

Consume less to adapt

According to our study, the French have adapted their consumption habits to the turmoil due to the sanitary crisis. Buying less has helped people compensate for the revenue decrease.

When comparing the data from 18/02 to 10/03 and from 21/04 to 12/05, we observe the following expense decreases:

• -17,9% for revenues between 900€ and 1700€
• -21,0% for revenues between 1700€ and 2500€
• -20,8% for revenues between 2500 and 3500€

When comparing the data from 07/02 to 06/03 and from 08/05 to 05/06, we observe the following expense decreases:

• -11,8% for revenues between 900€ and 1700€
• -15,8% for revenues between 1700€ and 2500€
• -15,8% for revenues between 2500 and 3500€

The impact on loans and mortgages

The credit industry was impacted by the quarantine. Thanks to Bridge’s credit algorithms, we can observe a 35% decrease in loan and mortgage reimbursements.

Riding a bike is the new thing

With specific social distancing measures, the French turned towards their bicycle to get moving. Expenses linked to cycling and sport merchants are skyrocketing.

Stores and services are reopening

Since May 11th, the French can now go shopping to “non-essential” stores. For the three levels of incomes we are studying here, the expenses are increasing. The French are enjoying shopping again. Let’s have a closer look!

Time has also come to get pretty and handsome again. Beauty shops, barbers, hairdressers are also back in business and the expenses linked to these industries are back up as well. No more home-scissors or home-clippers!

Now the quarantine is over, the French can also resume (or start) the medical procedures they paused because of the crisis.

Regarding the expenses related to leisure activities, people can now enjoy going to the restaurants again. The tourism industry is slowly getting back on its feet.

However, the video game industry didn’t benefit from the same level of expenses than at the beginning of the quarantine.

Reuniting

Getting a haircut is great, but what better satisfaction than seeing your family, friends, and colleagues again. Thanks to Bridge’s technology, we can see that since May 11th the French are moving again — they are going back to work, catching up with their family and their friends. The increasing amount of expenses linked to car-rentals or train tickets clearly shows it

You want to benefit from our Open Banking technology ? Start using Bridge or contact-us to learn more about Bridge.

About our analysis method:

• How was this study made ?

Our analysis is based on anonymised Bankin’ user data, respecting the privacy of all Bankin’ users and the regulation on personal data. For the purpose of this study, we analysed real anonymous data from 450 000 Bankin’ users, from the 19th of January until and including the 4th of June 2020.

• Our methodology

We analyzed data from the anonymised transactions in the following categories : “Revenues, pensions, Pharmacy Optic/Eye Doctor, Dentist, Doctor, Leisure, Supermarket, Gas, Tolls, Health, Beauty care, Loan reimbursement Shopping, Food & restaurants, Bars/Clubs, Hotels, Cultural visits, Travels / Holidays”. We also detected diverse brands: “Pôle Emploi, URSSAF, Dessange, Deguine, Jean-Louis David, Saint-Algue, Tchip coiffure, Playstation Network, Steam Games, Xbox, Nintendo ,Getaround, Airbnb, BlablaCar, Air France, Easyjet, SNCF Mobilités”.

• The expenses’ index

They represent the evolution in the transactions’ volume (indice 100). They do not depict in any way the gross volume of the transactions or the amount of the transactions.

For example, for the expenses related to beauty shops, on the 11th of May 2020. The graph doesn’t show that users spent more on Treatwell products than on Beauty Success products. It indicates that the increase in the number of transactions is higher for Treatwell than it is for Beauty Success.

This index is based on the period from 06/02 to 06/06 (included), where the date seems consistent with a “normal” expense period. Therefore, the value shown at a given date is spendings at this date, compared to the average for the period (06/02–06/06), divided by this average.

If the spendings at this date is equal to the average at this period, so the index will be equal to 0. An index 100 says that the spendings at this date is double of the average amount on the period.