Previewing the five council by-elections of 20th October 2022
“All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order”
Correction Corner
Before we start this week, there are a couple of corrections to the Leicester piece from last week. Aasiya Bora may have finished as runner-up in last week’s by-election, but in fact she placed third in last year’s poll. Keith Vaz is no longer the chair of the Leicester East branch of Labour; he is now the constituency party’s campaigns officer, which can’t be a particularly comfortable position to hold given his candidate’s disastrous performance last week.
The apparent disconnect between the national polls, in which the Conservative vote is crashing, and last week’s local by-elections, which saw the Conservatives gain two seats, did cause quite a lot of headscratching in the online discussion. In truth all the clues to both Conservative gains were there in last week’s Previews, and I am grateful to the significant number of people whom I noticed in my Twitter mentions shouting at someone else to read that piece. At least it shows somebody is reading it.
Local by-election results don’t always reflect the national political scene, and we shouldn’t always expect them to. A rising political tide will normally work to lift all boats, but some get lifted more than others and there’s always something going on in the local picture to confound the national one if you look hard enough.
And we also should remember that the electoral process runs more slowly than the 24-hour news cycle or the shelf-life of a Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary or lettuce. When there is a sudden shift in public opinion, it can take time for this to fully feed through to local by-election results because a significant number of the votes counted in any particular week will be postal votes cast a few weeks previously. With this in mind, it may be worth noting that a number of returning officers for this week’s polls have been asking postal voters not to delay in sending their ballots back, because of the current series of postal strikes.
Which brings us to the five by-elections on 20th October 2022. It’s a very different set to last week, with the Conservatives defending three seats and the Lib Dems and Labour one each. Let’s start on the south coast, with the Lib Dem defence:
Portchester East
Fareham council, Hampshire; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Jean Kelly.
We start this week on the northern bank of Portsmouth Harbour, in a location which has been important for many centuries. Let’s travel back in the time to the third century AD, when the Roman empire was in full swing and the Romans had a bit of a problem defending the offshore province of Britannia, whose south-eastern coast was under attack from Saxon heathens. The result was a series of fortifications known as the Saxon Shore Forts, guarding the coast of what became England from the Wash to the Solent. The forts were well-built enough that some of them, centuries later, were re-fortified as mediaeval castles.
Including Portchester. The Saxon Shore fort here, generally identified as Portus Adurni, is located on a promontory at the head of Portsmouth Harbour. It is described as the best-preserved Roman fort north of the Alps, with nearly all of the Roman outer walls and bastions still standing today. Some of the space within the fort is now occupied by a Norman castle, which was a frequent destination for English kings from Henry II onwards. Portchester was a regular embarkation point for English armies looking for a fight with the French; as late as the Napoleonic Wars, over 7,000 French prisoners of war were incarcerated here.
Despite the presence of this castle for so long, Portchester has never developed into a major town. Royal Mail doesn’t recognise it as a town at all, classifying every address within the ward as “Fareham”. As a military base Portchester has been eclipsed by the city of Portsmouth, which occupies Portsea Island on the far side of the harbour. Parts of the mainland are also within the Portsmouth city limits, but not Portchester; this has instead ended up as part of the borough of Fareham to the west.
Fareham and Portsmouth are part of one continuous urban area, with Portchester being the hinge in the middle of it. This is because of the presence of the steep Portsdown Hill to the north which forces all lines of communication to run through this ward, including the M27 motorway and the West Coastway railway line. Portchester railway station has regular trains to Southampton, Portsmouth and London.
Fareham council is one of the few English councils which re-elects half of its members every two years. Despite this, it has an odd number of councillors: the current composition is 25 Conservatives, 4 Lib Dems plus this vacancy, and an independent. The odd one out here is Portchester East ward, which — perhaps because of its position in a corner of the borough — has three councillors rather than the usual two. As a result Portchester East alternates between electing one and two councillors at each poll, which is an electoral cycle it shares with only one other ward in the country.
The large Conservative majority on Fareham borough also reflects national politics. Fareham has returned Conservative MPs continuously since the Fareham constituency was first created in 1885. Since 2015 its incumbent has been wisdom-free zone Suella Braverman, who finished sixth in the recent Conservative leadership election; her resulting tenure as Home Secretary lasted until, er, yesterday.
Portchester East, however, bucks this Conservative trend by being the only ward of Fareham borough which consistently returns Liberal Democrat councillors. The Conservatives have come close to winning on occasion in recent years, and the May 2022 result had a Lib Dem lead of 51–35: that’s closer than the last time those two seats were fought in 2018 (60–29), but not as close as the single-seat election in 2021 (44–40). The ward is part of the Fareham Portchester division of Hampshire county council, a Lib Dem-Conservative marginal where the Lib Dems increased their majority last year.
Despite its political stability Portchester East ward has had a fairly high turnover of councillors in recent years, and all of its current representatives were in their first term of office including the outgoing councillor Jean Kelly, who was first elected in 2021. Kelly now lives in faraway Liverpool, and she quit the council at the start of September following criticism of that decision.
Defending for the Lib Dems is Ciaran Urry-Tuttiett, who might be wanting to make his own journey to Liverpool fairly soon: he is a committed Eurovision fan who presents a Song Contest-themed radio show. Urry-Tuttiett contested Fareham North ward in May. The Conservatives have reselected Harry Davis, who is still a teenager but already has a previous campaign in this ward under his belt: he was runner-up here in May. Another young candidate on the ballot is Dominic Martin for Labour, who completes the candidate list along with Dave Wiltshire of the Fareham Independent Group. The local press have interviewed all the candidates, and you can find out more here (link).
Parliamentary constituency: Fareham
Hampshire county council division: Fareham Portchester
ONS Travel to Work Area: Portsmouth
Postcode districts: PO16, PO17
Harry Davis (C)
Dominic Martin (Lab)
Ciaran Urry-Tuttiett (LD)
Dave Wiltshire (Fareham Ind Group)
May 2022 result LD 1769/1635 C 1205/1128 Lab 361/345 Ind 146
May 2021 result LD 1569 C 1417 Lab 402 Ind 145
May 2018 result LD 2011/1791 C 979/783 Lab 338/329
May 2016 result LD 1433 C 1221 Lab 495
May 2014 result LD 2134/1962 C 712/634 Lab 433/426
May 2012 result LD 1516 C 791 Lab 492
March 2012 by-election LD 1216 C 840 Lab 323 Grn 90 Ind 77
May 2010 result LD 3554/3178 C 1929/1231 Lab 721/607
May 2008 result LD 1802 C 1055 Lab 326 BNP 323
May 2006 result LD 2394/2015 C 939/820 BNP 389 Lab 345/320
June 2004 result LD 1889 C 1190 Lab 501
May 2002 result LD 2222/1931/1921 C 732/709/644 Lab 688/616/530
Previous results in detail
Tillingbourne
Guildford council, Surrey; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Richard Billington.
We stay within the South East region for our first Conservative defence of the week, in Surrey. Tillingbourne ward covers three parishes in the North Downs, none of which are called Tillingbourne: the name instead refers to the River Tillingbourne, which flows from east to west through the ward before joining the River Wey south of Guildford. The valley is followed by the Reading-Gatwick railway line, whose stations at Gomshall and Chilworth are within this ward.
The Tillingbourne valley used to be a major industrial area, with the river providing a reliable source of water power. This industry included the Chilworth gunpowder factory, which was established in 1625 and supplied explosives to the East India Company and other customers for nearly three centuries. Further up the valley is Shere, which has a lot of unspoilt Tudor architecture and is a favourite location for artists and film-makers. Shere is the centre of a large parish which includes Gomshall and some beautiful North Downs landscape.
This area may be somewhat off the beaten track but it has a relatively educated and well-off demographic, and Tillingbourne ward has returned at least one Conservative to Guildford council at every election this century. The Tories held both seats from 2007 after an independent councillor retired.
The late Richard Billington was first elected here in 2011 and had topped the poll in all three of his elections. Billington served on the Guildford council cabinet from 2012 to 2018, and he was mayor of Guildford in 2019–21. His mayoral term was extended to two years due to the pandemic, and during the second of those mayoral years he underwent surgery to remove a brain tumour. Unfortunately, a new tumour was found earlier this year, and Billington passed away in May.
He had done well to get that far in political as well as health terms. The 2019 Guildford borough elections were a disaster for the Conservatives, who crashed from 35 seats on the council to just 9. The Liberal Democrats became the largest party with 17 seats, 15 seats went to the Residents for Guildford and Villages, four to the Guildford Greenbelt Group, two to Labour and one to the Greens. The Lib Dems and the Residents for Guildford and Villages run the council in coalition.
Sitting as part of the Residents for Guildford and Villages group is Guildford’s Green councillor, Diana Jones. She was returned here in Tillingbourne ward, where she gained the ward’s second seat from the Conservatives by just eleven votes. The shares of the vote quoted by the Local Elections Archive Project were 37% for the Conservatives, 33% for the Greens and 30% for the Lib Dems, but this overstates the Green and Lib Dem scores because they had only one candidate each through what might have been an electoral pact. There seem to have been a lot of electoral pacts going on in the 2019 Guildford elections, with the two localist groups in particular not opposing each other.
Other elections since May 2019 suggest that things have not improved for the Guildford Conservatives. Tillingbourne ward is part of the Shere division of Surrey county council, which the Conservatives held only narrowly in the 2021 county elections against a strong campaign from the Guildford Greenbelt Group. The ward is part of the Mole Valley parliamentary seat, which is safe for the Conservative MP Sir Paul Beresford but swung strongly to the Liberal Democrats in December 2019 against the national trend.
It’s taken quite some time for the Guildford Conservatives to organise this by-election following Billington’s death in May, and one wonders whether they might have delayed too long given the party’s recent downturn in the national polls. They will have the benefit of facing a number of opposition candidates, which increases the chances of a freak vote split.
Defending for the Conservatives is Justin Offord, who lives some distance to the north in Send; he fought Send ward in a by-election in May 2021 (Andrew’s Previews 2021, page 144), failing to dislodge the Guildford Greenbelt Group. The Green candidate is Sam Peters, who stood here in the county council elections in May and finished third with an increased vote share. The Lib Dem candidate is Richard Morris. Two other parties have also nominated candidates after skipping this ward last time: completing the ballot paper are John Marsh for Labour and Clare Price of the Residents for Guildford and Villages.
Parliamentary constituency: Mole Valley
Surrey county council division: Shere
ONS Travel to Work Area: Guildford and Aldershot
Postcode districts: GU4, GU5, KT24, RH5
John Marsh (Lab)
Richard Morris (LD)
Justin Offord (C)
Sam Peters (Grn)
Clare Price (Residents for Guildford and Villages)
May 2019 result C 825/734 Grn 745 LD 679
May 2015 result C 2072/1694 Guildford Greenbelt Group 896 LD 479/380 Lab 329/275
May 2011 result C 1670/1499 LD 487 Lab 357
May 2007 result C 1371/1307 Ind 593 LD 335 Lab 136/102
May 2003 result Ind 1559 C 1435 LD 811 Lab 238
Previous results in detail
Thorpe St Andrew North West
Broadland council, Norfolk; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Nigel Shaw.
Our big city by-election of the week comes in Norwich — or not, as the case may be. The Norwich city boundaries haven’t changed for a very long time, and many of the city’s northern suburbs actually lie within the Broadland district even though they are very much part of the city’s built-up area.
This includes Thorpe St Andrew, which lies immediately east of the city boundary on the north bank of the River Yare. We are literally over the road from the social housing and tower blocks of Norwich’s Heartsease estate; but Thorpe St Andrew North West ward, while not being a particularly middle-class area, is a lot higher on the social scale than the Heartsease.
Which perhaps explains why North West ward has had a full slate of Conservative councillors since the current boundaries were introduced in 2004. At the last Broadland elections in 2019 the Conservatives had a 56–29 lead over Labour. The Conservatives also hold the Woodside division of Norfolk county council, which covers this ward. The Parliamentary Boundary Commission have not been fooled by the fact that this ward is outside the Norwich city limits and they have sensibly placed the area within the Norwich North constituency; this has been held since a 2009 by-election by the Conservatives’ Chloe Smith, who joined the Cabinet last month as Work and Pensions secretary. Smith’s majority is only just over 10 percentage points, and Labour will have their eye on this seat at the next general election.
This by-election is to replace the late Conservative councillor Nigel Shaw, who passed away in August at the age of 70 after twenty unbroken years representing this ward on Broadland council. He had also served on Norfolk county council in the past. Before settling down to public service here, Shaw had travelled across Europe working as a DJ.
Defending for the Conservatives is Peter Berry, who represents the area on Thorpe St Andrew town council. Labour have selected the wonderfully-named Calix Eden. Brian Howe completes the candidate list for the Lib Dems.
Parliamentary constituency: Norwich North
Norfolk county council division: Woodside
ONS Travel to Work Area: Norwich
Postcode district: NR7
Peter Berry (C)
Calix Eden (Lab)
Brian Howe (LD)
May 2019 result C 1184/1068/1042 Lab 612/601/601 LD 313/309/302
May 2015 result C 2136/1844/1834 Lab 1450/1182/1156 UKIP 877 LD 490/472/358
May 2011 result C 1394/1313/1298 Lab 919/893/880 UKIP 288 LD 270
May 2007 result C 1325/1246/1210 Lab 648/634/582 LD 341/287/273
June 2004 result C 1121/1012/1001 Lab 864/800/797 LD 470/445/410
Previous results in detail
Devauden
Monmouthshire council, Gwent; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Bob Greenland.
Our Welsh by-election this week takes place in the south-eastern corner of the county. Devauden ward is a hilly and rural area lying between the Wye valley to the east and the Usk valley to the west.
The village of Devauden itself is the location where John Wesley first preached in Wales, doing so on the village green in 1739. The ward also includes a number of other small villages, as far west as Llangwm. This was historically hunting territory, and to some extent still is: the village of Itton at the southern end of the ward is home to the foxhounds of the Curre and Llangibby Hunt.
This ward had minor boundary changes for the 2022 election, extending it south-east to the edge of Chepstow, as a result of changes to community boundaries. On its previous boundaries Devauden made the top 30 wards in England and Wales for the 45–64 age bracket, and had a relatively educated demographic with high levels of owner-occupation. It was in the top 10 wards in Wales for those working in the professional/scientific/technical and IT/communication sectors. This might look like an educated commuter demographic, and indeed the census return is eerily similar to that of Tillingbourne ward above. Also like Tillingbourne ward, Devauden is a hilly ward somewhat off the beaten track.
Since 2004 this ward had been represented on Monmouthshire council by the Conservatives’ Bob Greenland, who was elected without a contest in 2008 and had large leads over the Lib Dems in 2004, 2012 and 2017. All of those local elections also resulted in Conservative-led government of Monmouthshire county council, the party winning an overall majority in 2004, 2008 and 2017 and ruling from 2012 to 2017 in coalition with the Lib Dems.
Monmouthshire is the most strongly Conservative part of Wales at national level, and the Monmouth constituency — which covers a very similar area to the council — is the only constituency to return Conservatives at every Senedd Cymru election to date. Its original AM David T C Davies has served as the Monmouth MP since 2005; he was succeeded in the Senedd in 2007 by Nick Ramsay. Ramsay contested the Welsh Conservative leadership election after the previous leader Nick Bourne lost his seat in the 2011 Assembly election; he finished a close second to Andrew R T Davies.
Following a number of controversies including a “police incident” at Ramsay’s home and his being seen drinking alcohol on Senedd premises in breach of COVID restrictions, the Conservatives deselected Ramsay for the 2021 Senedd election in favour of the long-serving Monmouthshire council leader Peter Fox, who was duly elected with a reduced majority over Labour of 43–32. Ramsay sought re-election as an independent candidate, finishing sixth out of ten candidates and losing his deposit; although that was a better performance than outgoing former UKIP MS Mark Reckless, who sought re-election here for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party and finished seventh.
The swing to Labour seen in the 2021 Senedd election in Monmouth was amplified in the 2022 Welsh local elections, where in Monmouthshire the Conservatives lost their majority and Labour finished as the largest party for the first time since 1995. Labour are now running the council as a minority with 22 out of 46 seats; a gain here will give their administration half of the council. How likely is that? Well, Labour contested Devauden ward this year for the first time this century, and finished in second place: Bob Greenland, who had been deputy leader of the Conservative group and of the council since 2008, was re-elected for a fifth term of office with a 49–31 lead. Greenland passed away in August 2022 from cancer; his last tweet was a criticism of the outgoing Prime Minster Boris Johnson.
Greenland’s death results in a by-election which might look a tricky Conservative defence on current national polling and recent local form. Their defending candidate is Rachel Buckler, a small business owner who contested Crucorney ward in May. Labour have selected Jim MacTaggart, a retired IT professional who sits on Chepstow town council. Also standing are Emily Fairman for the Greens (who returns from May’s election), Nick Ramsay (yes, that Nick Ramsay) for the Liberal Democrats, and farmer and independent candidate Ed Webb. The South Wales Argus have interviewed all the candidates, and you can find out more here (link).
Westminster and Senedd constituency: Monmouth
ONS Travel to Work Area: Newport
Postcode districts: NP15, NP16
Rachel Buckler (C)
Emily Fairman (Grn)
Jim MacTaggart (Lab)
Nick Ramsay (LD)
Ed Webb (Ind)
May 2022 result C 318 Lab 198 Grn 66 LD 63
Previous result in detail
Moss Bank
St Helens council, Merseyside; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Iysha Begum.
We finish with the Labour defence of the week, which comes at the northern end of St Helens. This town was called into existence by the Industrial Revolution as a centre of heavy industry, partly thanks to its location on the Lancashire coalfield, and it became a major centre for pharmaceuticals and glassmaking. Pilkington Glass is still a big employer in St Helens but no longer has the dominance it once did; the company was taken over by a Japanese firm in 2006, and some of its St Helens factories have since ceased production. This includes the Cowley Hill works to the north of the town centre, which is now being redeveloped.
The Cowley Hill site lies at the southern end of Moss Bank ward, which runs north across the A580 dual carriageway. The East Lancs Road, as it’s known locally, was the UK’s first major intercity road project: it was built in the 1930s to provide a fast link between Salford/Manchester and the Port of Liverpool, and its almost-straight alignment, flat junctions and parallel cycle paths hark back to an earlier era of road design. Next to the East Lancs Road is Carr Mill Dam, the largest inland body of water in Merseyside, which lies on the ward boundary; this is a place of relative peace and quiet, unless the Lancashire Powerboat Racing Club — who are based here — are out on the water.
The Moss Bank ward has a fairly unremarkable census return, except that it just squeaks into the top 100 wards in England and Wales for Christianity (79.7%). This is a feature of the census return for north-west England; lapsed Christians, particularly lapsed Catholics, in this region are much more likely to put their old religion down on the census form than lapsed Christians elsewhere in the country. Of the 98 wards with a higher Christian percentage than Moss Bank, 95 are in north-west England including all of the top 20.
St Helens is the smallest of England’s 36 metropolitan boroughs in terms of council size, with a total of 48 councillors. All of them were up for re-election in May with new ward boundaries being introduced; this resulted in an increased Labour majority with 35 council seats against 4 Lib Dems and three seats each for the Conservatives, Greens and independents. Moss Bank ward was left almost untouched by the boundary changes so we can read its political history over quite a long period: it was a safe Lib Dem ward until the Merseyside Lib Dem vote evaporated in 2010 on the formation of the Coalition, and has been a safe Labour ward since then. In May the Labour slate polled 52% here with the Conservatives and Lib Dems on 17% each.
The Labour slate included (Zeena) Iysha Begum, who was elected at the age of just 18; at the time she was a student at Winstanley College in Wigan and doing volunteer work for a local community interest company. She had moved to St Helens in 2018 with her mother and brothers, fleeing domestic violence. Unfortunately Begum’s time on the council lasted only a few months before she resigned due to a change in her personal circumstances.
St Helens has moved away from the normal thirds electoral cycle for metropolitan boroughs, so the winner of the by-election to replace Begum will not need to seek re-election until May 2026. Defending for Labour is former St Helens councillor Jeanette Banks, who represented Haydock ward from 2011 (when she gained her seat from the Lib Dems) to 2019 (when she lost her seat to the Greens), returned in 2021 for Earlestown ward, and lost re-election in the successor seat of Newton-le-Willows West in May. The Conservatives have selected Samantha Peet, who contested Thatto Heath ward in May. Another former councillor returns for the Lib Dems: David Kent won a by-election to this ward in July 2009, lost his seat in 2011 and is now standing here for the fifth time since then. Those are your three candidates.
Parliamentary constituency: St Helens North
ONS Travel to Work Area: Warrington and Wigan
Postcode districts: WA10, WA11
Jeanette Banks (Lab)
David Kent (LD)
Samantha Peet (C)
May 2022 result Lab 1547/1476/1375 C 514 LD 494/460 Ind 419
Previous result in detail
If you enjoyed these previews, there are many more like them — going back to 2016 — in the Andrew’s Previews books, which are available to buy now (link). You can also support future previews by donating to the Local Elections Archive Project (link).
Andrew Teale
