Previewing the five local by-elections of 13th July 2023
“All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order”
Five elections on 13th July 2023, with two Conservative defences, two Labour and one wildcard:
Dinnington
Rotherham council, South Yorkshire; caused by the disqualification of Conservative councillor Charlie Wooding.
There are a few wards up today which have appeared in Andrew’s Previews before, and we start with one of those. Dinnington ward is one of those areas whose inclusion in a metropolitan borough looks rather eccentric at first sight: there are no major towns here, and Sheffield (the main service centre for the area) is some distance away to the west. We have here five-and-a-bit parishes centred around Dinnington.
Dinnington is one of Yorkshire’s most obscure towns, having only become a town in 2003. It was called into being in 1905 for the sole purpose of providing housing for those working at the Dinnington Main Colliery, and the village’s population rose from 250 to 5,000 between the 1901 and 1911 censuses. Despite the end of coalmining in 1992 resulting in desperately high unemployment, Dinnington is becoming a commuter base for Worksop, Sheffield and Rotherham. And there used to be some engineering here from an unusual source: until 2015, Dinnington was home to a Formula 1 motor racing team variously known as Virgin Racing, Manor or Marussia. Jules Bianchi, the Frenchman who in 2015 became the most recent Formula 1 driver to die from an on-track accident, was a Marussia driver.
The current Dinnington ward was created in 2004 and slightly modified in 2021. It has generally been Labour but can also vote in significant numbers for the populist right: the BNP won here in 2008 and UKIP won one of the ward’s three seats at the all-up election in 2016. The UKIP councillor resigned a few months afterwards, and the resulting by-election in February 2017 was easily gained by Labour (Andrew’s Previews 2017, page 20).
The ward is part of the Rother Valley constituency, which has swung strongly to the Conservatives over the last decade; and in December 2019 Alexander Stafford became the first Conservative MP for Rother Valley since the seat was created in 1918. The Tories on built on that in the 2021 Rotherham council elections, coming from nowhere to displace UKIP as the main opposition force: the 2021 elections returned 32 Labour councillors, 20 Conservatives, 3 seats from the Rotherham Democratic Party (the remnants of the former UKIP group), 3 Lib Dems and an independent.
Nearly all of the Conservative group on Rotherham council represent wards in the Rother Valley constituency, including Dinnington which returned Conservative councillors in 2021 for the first time. On slightly revised boundaries the Conservative slate polled 36% of the vote and won all three seats; Labour had 25%, independent candidate Dave Smith 19% and the Greens polled 10%. There have been no local elections in Rotherham since, but in December 2021 the Conservatives lost two by-elections in the Rother Valley constituency, one of them in neighbouring Anston and Woodsetts ward to — the Lib Dems, who came from nowhere.
The circumstances of this by-election don’t give the Conservatives much encouragement to start with. It has been provoked by the disqualification of their councillor Charlie Wooding, who failed to turn up to any Rotherham council meetings in six months. With this being a traditionally-Labour ward in a parliamentary seat on the Labour target list, the result should be watched closely.
The 2017 Dinnington by-election had an extremely long ballot paper with eight candidates, and this poll is only one short of that total. Defending for the Conservatives is Julz Hall, who runs a boutique shop within the ward in the village of Laughton en le Morthen, where she lives. The Labour candidate is John Vjestica, who won the 2017 by-election but lost his seat in 2021. Independent candidate Dave Smith, the chairman of Dinnington town council, is fighting the ward for the eighth election in a row. The Greens have selected Paul Martin, who used to be a parish councillor in Kiveton Park and Aston (which is not part of this ward). Also standing are Matt Mears for the Lib Dems, Tony Harrison for Reform UK and Peter Key for the Yorkshire Party.
Parliamentary constituency: Rother Valley
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): Rother Valley
ONS Travel to Work Area: Sheffield
Postcode districts: S25, S65, S66, S81
Julz Hall (C)
Tony Harrison (Reform UK)
Peter Key (Yorkshire Party)
Paul Martin (Grn)
Matt Mears (LD)
Dave Smith (Ind)
John Vjestica (Lab)
May 2021 result C 1137/916/841 Lab 799/738/712 Ind 601/389 Grn 316/308 LD 284
Previous results in detail
West Depwade
Norfolk county council; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Barry Duffin.
This week’s other Conservative defence falls in deepest Norfolk. The West Depwade county division covers 16 parishes in the south of the county, generally to the north of the town of Diss. None of these parishes are called Depwade: the name is a reference to the long-abolished Depwade Rural District, which itself was named after an ancient Hundred of Norfolk. The name of Depwade was a reference to an unusually-deep ford, a “deep wade”, at Tasburgh which is not part of this division.
The only parish in this division with more than 1,000 electors is Dickleburgh and Rushall. Dickleburgh lies on the main road from Norwich to Ipswich, about three miles north-east of Diss, and may be best known to outsiders as the home of the TV and radio gardener Bob Flowerdew. He is an elector in this by-election. That main road is the successor to a Roman road, which once ran from Colchester to the capital of the Iceni at modern-day Caistor St Edmund. West Depwade division generally runs west of this road, striking due north from the edge of Diss all the way to Ashwellthorpe, which is closer to Norwich than to the county boundary.
This Norfolk county council division has voted Conservative at all five elections since it took on its current boundaries in 2005. However, for the 2021 county elections the Conservatives deselected long-serving county councillor Beverley Spratt, who did not take that well: he (yes, Beverley Spratt is a he) sought re-election as an independent candidate. The new Conservative candidate Barry Duffin held the seat with 44% of the vote, Spratt placed second with 24% and Labour came in third with 13%.
The local authority here is South Norfolk council, which is still Conservative-controlled but only just: the South Norfolk council elections last May returned 24 Conservative councillors out of a possible 46. Four of the five South Norfolk wards covering this county division returned a Conservative councillor in May, the exception being Mulbarton and Stoke Holy Cross ward which covers Ashwellthorpe and returned a full slate of Lib Dem councillors.
West Depwade division is part of the very safe Conservative constituency of South Norfolk, which has been represented since 2001 by Richard Bacon. He is only the third MP for this seat since 1954, when then-incumbent Peter Baker gained the dubious distinction of becoming the last MP to date to be expelled from the House of Commons: you can’t argue this wasn’t deserved, because Baker had just been sentenced to seven years in prison for fraud and forgery. The South Norfolk seat will be heavily redrawn at the next general election, and much of West Depwade division will be transferred into a completely new seat of Waveney Valley which will straddle the Norfolk-Suffolk border.
Barry Duffin was already due to stand down as district councillor for Forncett ward when he suddenly died in April at the age of 74. At the inquest into his death, which has been adjourned until October, the Norfolk assistant coroner recounted that he had suffered a brain haemorrhage as a result of a fall at his home. Duffin had served on South Norfolk council since 2015, and he had been a Norfolk county councillor since 2021.
Defending this seat for the Conservatives is Tony Holden, a former mayor of Wymondham who lost re-election to South Norfolk council in May. Beverley Spratt wants his seat back and he is standing again as an independent candidate. The Labour candidate is Pam Reekie, who is a parish councillor in Dickleburgh and Rushall and was an unsuccessful candidate for the ward covering that parish (Beck Vale, Dickleburgh and Scole) in the South Norfolk council election two months ago. Also standing are South Norfolk councillor Ian Spratt (no relation of Beverley) for the Lib Dems and Catherine Rowett for the Green Party; this division has a short boundary with the Green-majority district of Mid Suffolk, and rumour reaches this column’s ears that the Greens may be having a go at this by-election.
Parliamentary constituency: South Norfolk
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): Waveney Valley (part of Beck Vale, Dickleburgh and Schole ward; Bressingham and Burston ward; Bunwell ward), South Norfolk (part of Forncett ward; part of Mulbarton and Stoke Holy Cross ward)
South Norfolk wards: Beck Vale, Dickleburgh and Scole (part: Dickleburgh and Rushall, and Tivetshall parishes), Bressingham and Burston, Bunwell, Forncett (part: Forncett and Tacolneston parishes), Mulbarton and Stoke Holy Cross (part: Ashwellthorpe and Fundenhall parish)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Norwich
Postcode districts: IP21, IP22, NR15, NR16, NR18
Tony Holden (C)
Pam Reekie (Lab)
Catherine Rowett (Grn)
Beverley Spratt (Ind)
Ian Spratt (LD)
May 2021 result C 1632 Ind 888 Lab 478 LD 394 Grn 349
May 2017 result C 2413 LD 705 Lab 575
May 2013 result C 1531 UKIP 829 LD 508 Lab 446
June 2009 result C 2618 LD 1136 Lab 305
May 2005 result C 3072 LD 2722
Previous results in detail
Boleyn; and
Wall End
Newham council, London; caused respectively by the resignations of Labour councillor Cecilia Welsh and Luke Charters.
Our two Labour defences of the week both take place in the East End of London. We’ve come to East Ham, which is now generally considered as Inner London even though it was never part of the old County of London: East Ham remained within the Essex county council area until 1915, when it became a county borough. The main communication links here run east-west, with the London, Tilbury and Southend railway line and the London Underground District line forming the north boundary of both Boleyn and Wall End wards; the main road here is the Barking Road.
Boleyn and Wall End wards can be found either side of East Ham town centre. Wall End lies to the east, running along the Barking Road up to the borough boundary. Once this boundary was the River Roding, now it’s the North Circular Road which places East Ham firmly within the current iteration of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone — although relatively few residents here have access to a car in any event. The eponymous wall here was an embankment which prevented the Roding from flooding the area. Those parts of the ward which are less prone to flooding were filled with terraced housing around the turn of the 20th century.
There’s rather more to say about Boleyn ward, and indeed this column said rather more when previewing previous by-elections in December 2015 and December 2018 (Andrew’s Previews 2018, page 388). The name comes from the stately home and gardens of Green Street House, which became known locally as Boleyn Castle through some supposed connection with Queen Anne Boleyn which historical research has never quite got to the bottom of. The castle spawned the nearby Boleyn Tavern, which in 1931 hosted no less a figure than Mahatma Gandhi who talked football and radical politics with the locals over a glass or few of cream soda. One of Boleyn Castle’s towers was demolished in the 1950s but lived on for many years afterwards in the logo of West Ham United FC, whose former Boleyn Ground stadium was originally located in the castle grounds. West Ham moved to the London Stadium in the Stratford Olympic Park in 2016 and the Boleyn Ground site has been redeveloped for housing, but the statue of West Ham’s England World Cup winners Bobby Moore, Geoff Hurst and Martin Peters can still be seen in this ward on the corner of Green Street and Barking Road.
Both wards make a number of this column’s top 100 census lists. Wall End ranks 15th for those born in Bulgaria or Romania (10.3%), 29th for those born in Asia or the Middle East (35.4%), 39th for those working in sales or customer service (13.5%, which is the highest figure for any ward in London), 49th for those working in the administration or support sector (9.6%), 55th for Hinduism (17.6%) and 66th for Asian ethnicity (60.1%). Boleyn ward is only slightly less diverse in demographic terms, ranking 75th for those born in the Middle East or Asia (28.5%) and 87th for Islam (46.0%). Goodness knows what Gandhi would have made of that.
This demographic diversity is not matched by political diversity. Newham council, which replaced the old county boroughs of East Ham and West Ham in 1965, is the strongest borough for Labour in London local elections. From 2010 to 2022 the Labour party held the borough’s elected mayoralty and all sixty council seats. The redwash was broken last year when the Green Party won the two seats in Stratford Olympic Park ward, which is brand-new in every possible respect: new buildings, new housing, new residents and new ward boundaries which came in for the 2022 local elections. Those new boundaries increased the size of the council by six, so the score in the council chamber now stands at 64–2 to Labour.
Boleyn and Wall End both remain safe Labour wards. Last year Labour led the Conservative slate in Boleyn by 59–18; Wall End gave 49% to the Labour slate, 22% to independent candidate Swarup Choudhury, and 15% to the Conservatives. The local MP Sir Stephen Timms has represented this area in Parliament since he won the Newham North East by-election in 1994. His current East Ham constituency is seriously oversized with more than 90,000 electors and will be cut down for the next boundary review, but both Boleyn and Wall End wards will be staying put.
These two by-elections both result from Labour councillors standing down after a year’s service. Cecilia Welsh, who was in her first term as councillor for Boleyn ward, is concentrating on caring for her family and particularly looking after her mother, who has increasing care needs. By contrast, Luke Charters is hoping to advance his career: he has been selected as Labour’s prospective parliamentary candidate for the York Outer constituency at the next general election, and he is leaving London to concentrate on his parliamentary campaign in Yorkshire.
Defending Boleyn ward for Labour is Sofia Patel, a party staffer who has previously held roles in health and social care and managed a cinema in the area. The Conservatives have selected a candidate whose name contains all seven vowels or semivowels: Lawrencia Durojaiye stood in this ward last year, and she is a care worker who commutes to Newham from her home in Barnet. Also standing are Joe Hudson-Small for the Greens, independent Mehmood Mirza who finished in fourth place in the Newham mayoral election last year, Daniel Oxley for Reform UK and David Terrar for the Lib Dems.
The defending Labour candidate in Wall End ward is Stephanie Garfield, who works for the NHS and runs a small independent arts business. The independent candidate from last time is not standing again so his votes are up for grabs: hoping to capitalise on that is the Conservatives’ Durai Kannan, a businessman who is active in the local South Indian community. Also standing are Tassaduq Cheema for the Greens, David Sandground for Reform UK and Claire Pattie for the Lib Dems.
Boleyn
Parliamentary constituency: East Ham
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): East Ham
ONS Travel to Work Area: London
Postcode districts: E6, E13
Lawrencia Durojaiye (C)
Joe Hudson-Small (Grn)
Mehmood Mirza (Ind)
Daniel Oxley (Reform UK)
Sofia Patel (Lab)
David Terrar (LD)
May 2022 result Lab 1756/1487/1450 C 538/406/367 Grn 524/494/377 CPA 152
Previous results in detail
Wall End
Parliamentary constituency: East Ham
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): East Ham
ONS Travel to Work Area: London
Postcode district: E6
Tassaduq Cheema (Grn)
Stephanie Garfield (Lab)
Durai Kannan (C)
Claire Pattie (LD)
David Sandground (Reform UK)
May 2022 result Lab 2118/1929/1882 Ind 957 C 648/461/412 Grn 392/336/300 CPA 142/139/99 Reform UK 103
Previous results in detail
Castle Baynard
City of London Court of Aldermen; caused by the retirement of Alderman Ian Luder.
And finally, let’s have some light relief with a non-partisan election in the City of London. This is a poll for one of the city’s Aldermen, the senior councillors from whom the Lord Mayor of London is chosen. Aldermen technically have judicial roles and as a result of this they are expected to retire at 70; but there have been some fudges to this in recent years as a result of COVID, so Ian Luder is now standing down from the Aldermanic bench at the age of 72.
Of the City’s 25 Aldermen (one for each ward), Ian Luder was the second longest-serving having had continuous service since 2005; only Alison Gowman of Dowgate ward (first elected in 2002) is more senior. Luder was fast-tracked through the City’s offices, becoming a Sheriff of the city in 2007–08 and serving as Lord Mayor of London in 2008–09. He was the first Lord Mayor since the nineteenth century not to be knighted or made a Dame, instead accepting a CBE after his year of office was over. Outside politics Luder was a tax accountant; outside the City he was a Labour councillor in Bedford for many years, he was the Labour candidate for Yeovil in the 1979 general election (more on that next week), and in the 2015 general election he finished second as the UKIP candidate for South Basildon and East Thurrock. However, City elections are normally fought on non-partisan lines, and all of Luder’s wins here came as an independent candidate.
Ian Luder represented the ward of Castle Baynard, whose name recalls a mediaeval castle which mostly disappeared in the Great Fire. Its site close to the modern Blackfriars Bridge is now occupied by the brutalist Baynard House, an office building for BT. As this column related when we were last here in March, this is a large ward which takes in St Paul’s Cathedral, Blackfriars station and Fleet Street. The latter was once the home of the UK’s newspaper industry, but no more: all the journalists have now relocated away from the Street of Shame. Which is a bit disappointing, because this area’s association with printing and the written word goes all the way back to 1500: in that year the wonderfully-named Wynkyn de Worde set up his print shop next to the wedding-cake of St Brides church just to the south of Fleet Street.
To the north of Fleet Street, on Gough Square, can be found the house of the eighteenth-century lexicographer Samuel Johnson. It’s now a museum dedicated to his memory. Sat outside Dr Johnson’s house is a statue of his cat Hodge — a very fine cat, a very fine cat indeed. Since this is the internet and there is nothing which cannot be improved by a cat picture, here is Hodge’s statue.
Aldermen of the City of London are expected to seek re-election every six years, and Ian Luder stood down at the end of his third term: nobody challenged his re-election in 2011 or 2017, so this is the first contested Aldermanic election in Castle Baynard ward for eighteen years. The ward also elects eight of the City Corporation’s 100 Common Councilmen, so polls have been going on here at that lower level. At the most recent City elections in 2022 the City establishment slate registered the name “Castle Baynard Independent Party” with the Electoral Commission and stood under that name; but they only won seven of the eight seats available, with the only other candidate to stand — Martha Grekos — topping the poll. Grekos resigned from the Corporation a year later with her resignation statement implying that the other councillors for the ward had undermined her; the resulting by-election returned Michael Hudson, who had been the Castle Baynard Independent Party’s losing candidate a year earlier.
Open seats on the Aldermanic bench don’t come up very often, and there’s a lot of interest in this vacancy with seven candidates being nominated. Ian Luder and at least one of the ward’s Common Councilmen have apparently thrown their weight behind Sushil Saluja, who describes himself as an “experienced international business leader in technology, financial services and education”. Former Common Councilwoman Martha Grekos is back seeking elected office; she is a partner at an international law firm who specialises in planning law. One candidate from the March 2023 by-election is back for another go: that’s Edward Goodchild, a serial entrepreneur who was runner-up here earlier this year and who tied for third place in last year’s election for Alderman of Walbrook ward. I’ll take the other four candidates in alphabetical order: Desiree Artesi is a lawyer at the Temple specialising in constitutional and administrative law, Sally Bridgeland is an actuary who used to run the pension fund for BP, Waheeda Shah is a financial advisor and serial entrepreneur, and the wonderfully-named Wincie Wong is a senior figure in technology with NatWest.
Parliamentary constituency: Cities of London and Westminster
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): Cities of London and Westminster
London Assembly constituency: City and East
ONS Travel to Work Area: London
Postcode districts: EC1N, EC4A, EC4M, EC4V, EC4Y
Desiree Artesi (Ind)
Sally Bridgeland (Ind)
Edward Goodchild (Ind)
Martha Grekos (Ind)
Sushil Saluja (Ind)
Waheeda Shah (Ind)
Wincie Wong (Ind)
Housekeeping
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If you enjoyed these previews, there are many more like them — going back to 2016 — in the Andrew’s Previews books, which are available to buy now (link). You can also support future previews by donating to the Local Elections Archive Project (link).
Andrew Teale
