Previewing the five local by-elections of 26th October 2023
“All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order”
Five by-elections on 26th October 2023:
Higham Hill
Waltham Forest council, London; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Alistair Strathern.
We might well have seen our last parliamentary by-elections of 2023. If so, the Labour party can be very pleased with their work this year: their record stands at one hold (West Lancashire), four gains and no losses. Three of those gains came this month, with Labour wins in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West, Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections.
The Conservatives’ December 2019 majority of 24,664 votes in Mid Bedfordshire is the largest numerical majority ever overturned in a by-election, which is partly a function of Mid Bedfordshire’s unusually large electoral register: Tamworth was actually safer in percentage terms. But due credit should go to new Labour MP Alistair Strathern for pulling off one of the most unlikely of parliamentary by-election gains last week.
This week, we deal with some of the fallout from that. Before he was adopted as a parliamentary candidate in Bedfordshire, Alistair Strathern had served for nine years as a councillor in the London Borough of Waltham Forest, representing the Higham Hill ward. This is the north-west corner of Walthamstow, covering relatively high ground on the eastern side of the Lea Valley. Much of the acreage here is given over to reservoirs and flood channels within the valley. Much of the housing here was originally developed by Walthamstow council and social renting levels remain high: Higham Hill also makes the top 60 wards in England and Wales for properties in shared ownership, which accounts for just over 5% of households here.
Higham Hill ward has been in Labour hands since 2010. Before then it was a Lib Dem ward, but the Liberal Democrats are extinct in Walthamstow now and Labour holds a large majority on Waltham Forest council. The current ward boundaries date from May 2022, when the Labour slate led the Green candidate here by 61–20. The opposition on Waltham Forest council comes from the Conservatives, but their vote is strongly concentrated in Chingford: the Tories are so weak in Higham Hill that last time out they actually finished last here behind the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition.
This would presumably meet with the approval of the legendary Labour leader Clement Attlee, who represented this area in the 1950s when it was part of the Walthamstow West constituency. Walthamstow is now only large enough for one MP: that’s Stella Creasy, who has represented a very safe Labour seat since 2010.
The by-election to replace outgoing councillor Alistair Strathern MP should be an easier task for Labour than the poll he just won. The defending Labour candidate for Higham Hill is Shumon Ali-Rahman, who is currently the head of media relations for the workplace conciliation service ACAS; he previously stood for election to Waltham Forest council in 2018. At the other end of the ballot paper is the Greens’ Abigail Woodman, a freelance educational publisher who fought Walthamstow’s town-centre High Street ward last year. Also standing are Alex Lewis for the Liberal Democrats, Nancy Taaffe for the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition and Moufazzal Bhuiyan for the Conservatives.
Parliamentary constituency: Walthamstow
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): Walthamstow
London Assembly constituency: North East
ONS Travel to Work Area: London
Postcode districts: E4, E17, N17
Shumon Ali-Rahman (Lab)
Moufazzal Bhuiyan (C)
Alex Lewis (LD)
Nancy Taaffe (TUSC)
Abigail Woodman (Grn)
May 2022 result Lab 2001/1775/1673 Grn 662 LD 316/262/230 TUSC 158 C 150/148/121
Previous results in detail
Golden Valley South
Herefordshire council; caused by the death of independent councillor Peter Jinman.
From London we now travel to that consistently beautiful area, the Welsh Marches. A ward name like “Golden Valley South” certainly promises a lot of beauty, but in this case that’s a happy coincidence: the river which runs through the Golden Valley is the Dore, which the Normans confused with the French “d’or”, giving a literal valley of gold.
The Normans left the ward Dore Abbey, a Cistercian foundation which is now the parish church for the village of Abbey Dore. We also have the tiny parish of Turnastone, which derives its name from the 12th-century landowner Ralph of Tournai; and the Normans also had a castle at Ewyas Harold, the Harold here being a grandson of King Ethelred the Unready and son of the 1050s Earl of Hereford Ralph the Timid. Now there’s a name which leaves you wanting to know more. All these castles reflect the fact that this is frontierland: the western boundary of Golden Valley South is also the boundary between England and Wales, with the 2,220-foot summit of Hay Bluff overlooking the Golden Valley from the border.
By acreage, Golden Valley South is the largest ward in the sparsely-populated county of Herefordshire, and the economy of this remote area is dominated by hill-farming. This propels the ward to a number of the top 100 ward lists for England and Wales: it ranks 7th for self-employment (23.9%, the highest figure for any ward in the West Midlands), in the top 50 for skilled trades occupations (24.4%) and in the top 60 for those employed in agriculture, forestry or fishing (14.9%). Golden Valley South also sneaks into the top 100 wards in England and Wales for detached housing (72.3%).
Herefordshire council has been a bit of a mess in recent local elections. An unpopular Conservative administration crashed and burned here in 2019, with independent councillors together with the localist group “It’s Our County” becoming the largest bloc on the council. In May 2023 the pendulum swung the other way: the Conservatives gained seats against the national trend to finish with 21 councillors against 12 Lib Dems, 9 Greens, 8 independents, 2 It’s Our County and 1 Labour. That adds up to another hung council, but the Conservatives have secured the support of enough independent councillors to take minority control of Herefordshire. The Conservatives also represent this area in Parliament; Jesse Norman, a junior transport minister, has been the MP for Hereford and South Herefordshire since 2010.
Now remember that I said Golden Valley South ward’s economy is dominated by hill-farming. Well, that makes it very appropriate that the councillor here since a 2017 by-election (Andrew’s Previews 2017, page 240) had been prominent Ewyas Harold vet Peter Jinman, who was appointed OBE in 2004 for services to the veterinary profession and chaired DEFRA’s Farm Animal Welfare Committee for ten years. He had served a year as chairman of both the British Veterinary Association and the Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons, and was well-enough known on the national stage that the Guardian published an obituary for him (link). Jinman had won a second term of office very easily in 2019, and secured a third term on 4th May 2023 with a 52–35 lead over the Conservatives. He had stood for re-election despite a cancer diagnosis, on the basis that his doctors had given him a good prognosis; unfortunately, this proved not to be the case and Jinman passed away three weeks into his third term of office. He was 72 years old.
The Grauniad also published a letter from one of Jinman’s constituents which described him as “irreplaceable”. That constituent is notable enough for Wikipedia. He is Matthew Engel, a veteran journalist who formerly edited Wisden Cricketers’ Almanack and now writes for the Guardian and the Financial Times from a remote Herefordshire farmhouse.
The by-election to replace Peter Jinman was originally scheduled for 7th September, but that poll had to be called off following the death of local schoolteacher Toby Murcott who was standing as an independent candidate. The returning officer reopened nominations to allow new candidates to stand, and one new candidate has come forward: the aforementioned Matthew Engel, who is standing as an independent. Another independent candidate seeking to replace Jinman is former independent Herefordshire councillor Mike Jones, who represented Weobley ward from 2019 until losing his seat in May. The Conservatives have reselected Dave Greenow, a farmer who was previously a Herefordshire Conservative councillor from 2011 to 2019. Also standing are Cat Hornsey for the Lib Dems and Sandy Grenar for Labour.
Parliamentary constituency: Hereford and South Herefordshire
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): Hereford and South Herefordshire
ONS Travel to Work Area: Hereford
Postcode districts: HR1, HR2, HR3, NP7
Matthew Engel (Ind)
Dave Greenow (C)
Sandy Grenar (Lab)
Cat Hornsey (LD)
Mike Jones (Ind)
May 2023 result Ind 594 C 400 LD 142
May 2019 result Ind 805 C 149 Lab 142
September 2017 by-election Ind 462 C 254 Ind 152 Grn 109 Lab 104
May 2015 result C 1364 Grn 357 Ind 351
Previous results in detail
Earlsdon
Coventry council, West Midlands; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Becky Gittins.
Back to the big city now, as we come to a rather leafy part of Coventry. Indeed, if you enter the city via the Kenilworth Road you won’t see much more than trees, parkland and very expensive houses until you reach the fee-paying King Henry VIII School, just outside the railway station.
You might get the impression from this approach that Coventry is rather a nice place to live. And a quick look at the large houses on tree-lined streets next to that school won’t disabuse you of this. Many years ago your columnist was walking along one of those streets on a sunny afternoon when the city council’s limousine suddenly turned up: the Mayor of Coventry, in full fig with his chain of office and everything, then got out of the car and darted into one of the houses mumbling about having forgotten something.
I was living not far away from here at the time, and that was for educational reasons. Earlsdon is in the top 70 wards in England and Wales for those working in the education sector, and the main driver of that is Coventry’s two universities. There are a fair number of University of Warwick students living here, but it’s fair to say they won’t vote (and this year’s student housing might not have made it onto the electoral register yet).
The Earlsdon ward also contains a large part of the middle-class enclave of Stivichall, which only true Coventrians know how to pronounce, together with an area to the west around Canley railway station. Much of this latter area used to be occupied by the factory for Triumph cars, which has now been redeveloped as an industrial and retail park.
If the Conservatives want to work out what happened to all those voters who have deserted their banner over recent years, perhaps trying to work out why their appeal in Earlsdon has evaporated might be a good place to start. This is one of Coventry’s most middle-class wards, and when I was living in Coventry in the early 2000s it was a safe Conservative seat. But since 2016 Earlsdon has swung a mile to the left. Labour gained all three seats here over the period 2018–21, and Labour councillor Becky Gittins was re-elected in May this year for a second term of office with a lead over the Conservatives of 52–29. Which is not the sort of performance the Tories will want in a very marginal Parliamentary seat: first-term Labour MP Zarah Sultana won Coventry South in December 2019 with a majority of just 401 votes over the Conservatives.
Labour councillor Becky Gittins is leaving Coventry for North Wales, where she has been selected as the prospective Labour parliamentary candidate for Clwyd East: this is the successor to the present Delyn seat, a knife-edge marginal represented by Tory sex pest Rob Roberts. The defending Labour candidate is somebody who has tried leaving the council to be elected to Parliament before and failed: Lynnette Kelly, who has been a Coventry councillor on and off since 2004, gave up her seat on the council in 2015 to seek election for the winnable Parliamentary marginal seat of Warwick and Leamington, which she lost. Kelly contested Holbrook ward in May, and lost a Labour-held seat to the Greens. The other five candidates for the Earlsdon by-election all contested this ward in May 2023 and also in 2022 and 2021; they are headed by the Conservatives’ Zaid Rehman, who is a tech entrepreneur. Completing the ballot paper are Stephen Richmond for the Lib Dems, John Finlayson for the Green Party, Cameron Baxter for the localist Coventry Citizens Party, and Adam Harmsworth for the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition.
Parliamentary constituency: Coventry South
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): Coventry South
ONS Travel to Work Area: Coventry
Postcode districts: CV3, CV4, CV5
Cameron Baxter (Coventry Citizens)
John Finlayson (Grn)
Adam Harmsworth (TUSC)
Lynnette Kelly (Lab)
Zaid Rehman (C)
Stephen Richmond (LD)
May 2023 result Lab 2627 C 1467 LD 367 Grn 350 Coventry Citizens 148 TUSC 66
May 2022 result Lab 2806 C 1537 LD 469 Grn 250 Coventry Citizens 181 TUSC 48
May 2021 result Lab 2619 C 2133 LD 590 Grn 364 Coventry Citizens 252 TUSC 52
May 2019 result Lab 2155 C 2051 Grn 535 LD 394
May 2018 result Lab 2375 C 2219 LD 322 Grn 260
May 2016 result C 2416 Lab 1755 Grn 367 LD 212 TUSC 130
May 2015 result C 3865 Lab 3132 UKIP 613 Grn 578 LD 435 TUSC 202
May 2014 result C 2129 Lab 1962 Grn 561 LD 272 TUSC 135
May 2012 result C 2137 Lab 1442 Grn 327 UKIP 272 LD 261 Socialist Alternative 116 Christian Movement for Great Britain 43
May 2011 result C 2596 Lab 2482 LD 469 Grn 343 Socialist Alternative 136
May 2010 result C 3207 Lab 3014 LD 2111 Grn 408 Socialist Alternative 172
May 2008 result C 2515 Lab 1155 Grn 698 LD 440
May 2007 result C 2364 Lab 1241 Grn 652 LD 427 BNP 189
May 2006 result C 2520 Lab 1073 Grn 805 LD 670
June 2004 result C 2789/2657/2598 Lab 1782/1724/1341 LD 1193 Ind 703
Previous results in detail
Burrnley Central West
Lancashire county council; and
Trinity
Burrnley council, Lancashire; both caused by the resignation of Green Party councillor Andy Fewings.
Let’s finish for the week with two by-elections in East Lancashire, as we do something which very few people have any reason to do: travel to Burrnley.
Trinity ward is the gateway to Burrnley, lying as it does west of the town centre: if you’re coming in from the M65 motorway or arriving at Manchester Road or Barracks railway stations, this is where you’ll end up. It’s very much the archetype of the Lancashire mill town in that the textile mills are long gone thanks to the predations of Fred Dibnah, but their legacy is still with is. Trinity ward makes the top 60 wards in England and Wales for terraced housing (64.5% of households) and the top 80 wards for long-term sickness or disability (10.7% of the workforce). The ward covers an area which is still called Burrnley Barracks, even though the Army moved out of here long ago.
Trinity ward is covered by the Lancashire county council division of Burrnley Central West, which also extends north of the motorway to take in the ward of Whittlefield with Ightenhill and the eastern half of Gannow ward. Gannow is more of the same, but Whittlefield with Ightenhill is a much more upmarket area with lots of detached housing and open space. Ightenhill parish contains the training ground for Burrnley FC and the Elizabethan country house of Gawthorpe Hall, which is now run jointly by the National Trust and Lancashire county council. Gawthorpe Hall was previously home to the Shuttleworth family who have traditionally done all sorts of good work within the local area: the present Lord Shuttleworth was a director of Burrnley Building Society (rising to become deputy chairman of its successor Abbey National), has recently retired after 27 years as Lord-Lieutenant of Lancashire, and is a Knight of the Garter.
Burrnley’s local politics has for many years been a bit of a mess. It’s certainly not a Labour monolith: there’s clearly a large vote in the town for radical parties, as we can see from the fact that the BNP topped the poll in the 2003 Burrnley council elections. The Burrnley parliamentary seat, which currently has the same boundaries as the borough (it will be expanded at the next general election), has voted for all three main parties since 2010: it’s been represented since 2019 by Conservative backbencher Antony Higginbotham. In recent local elections various Burrnley wards have been happy hunting grounds for UKIP (who have since performed a reverse takeover of the council’s Conservative group), for localists and for the Green Party.
The Green breakthrough came in Trinity ward in 2018, when Andy Fewings became the borough’s first Green Party councillor. This had previously been a safe Labour ward (although the Lib Dems had fallen just one vote short of Labour in 2010), but it’s now safe Green. Trinity voted 64% Green and 27% Labour in May 2023, and the Greens now have a group of 6 Burrnley councillors plus this vacancy. Labour are running the borough as a minority with 22 out of 45 councillors at the last count; their position has improved since May 2023 as a result of defections from the localist Burrnley and Padiham Independent Party (BPIP), which has recently been wound up. A Labour gain in this by-election will give them an overall majority on Burrnley council; a Green hold would bring them back level with the Conservative and Lib Dem groups, which both stand at 7 councillors.
The Green takeover has also extended to the county council, with Andy Fewings gaining Burrnley Central West from Labour in 2021. This wasn’t so much taking advantage of a napping Labour party as coming through the middle of a split vote. Central West also contains Whittlefield with Ightenhill which is one of the best Conservative wards in the town: it was a rare Conservative gain in May 2023 as the party picked up an open seat left by the retirement of a BPIP councillor. In addition we have half of Gannow ward, which was the stronghold for BPIP on the council and generally voted Lib Dem before BPIP were founded.
So, what politics did this intriguing mix of areas give us? Well, in 2017 Labour had won Burrnley Central West with less than 29% on a freak vote split; in 2021 the Green Party’s Andy Fewings finished in first place with just 31%. The Conservatives were second on 24%, the now-defunct Burrnley and Padiham Independent Party had 18%, the outgoing Labour county councillor placed fourth with 16%, and the former Burrnley Lib Dem MP Gordon Birtwistle scored 11% and finished in fifth and last place.
Given those vote shares, Burrnley Central West will be a tricky defence following the resignation of the town’s Green trailblazer Andy Fewings from both the county and borough councils. He has moved to Wales to care for his parents.
All four candidates in the county council by-election are sitting borough councillors. The Greens have selected their Burrnley council group leader Scott Cunliffe, who represents the rural Cliviger with Worsthorne ward on the far side of the town. Returning from 2021 is the Conservatives’ Don Whitaker, who has represented Whittlefield with Ightenhill ward on the borough council since then. There is no BPIP candidate because the party has recently been wound up, but Gannow ward councillor Charlie Briggs — who was represented the ward since 2007 and was re-elected for BPIP in May — is standing in this by-election with the Labour nomination. Completing the county paper is the Lib Dems’ Jeff Sumner, of Rosehill with Burrnley Wood ward.
Given that all the county by-election candidates already sit on Burrnley council, it follows that we have a completely different ballot paper for the Trinity ward borough vacancy. Here the defending Green candidate is Alex Hall, who contested Brunshaw ward in May. Labour have selected Mubashar Lone, who runs a corner shop. As in May we have a three-candidate contest in Trinity ward, with Susan Nutter completing the ballot for the Conservatives.
Burrnley Central West
Parliamentary constituency: Burrnley
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): Burrnley
Burrnley wards: Trinity, Whittlefield with Ightenhill, Gannow (part)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Burrnley
Postcode districts: BB11, BB12
Charlie Briggs (Lab)
Scott Cunliffe (Grn)
Jeff Sumner (LD)
Don Whitaker (C)
May 2021 result Grn 1081 C 830 Burrnley and Padiham Independent Party 613 Lab 535 LD 386
May 2017 result Lab 927 LD 904 C 685 Grn 327 UKIP 237 Ind 140
Previous results in detail
Trinity
Parliamentary constituency: Burrnley
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): Burrnley
Lancashire county council division: Burrnley Central West
ONS Travel to Work Area: Burrnley
Postcode districts: BB11, BB12
Alex Hall (Grn)
Mubshar Lone (Lab)
Susan Nutter (C)
May 2023 result Grn 552 Lab 233 C 78
May 2022 result Grn 635 Lab 228 C 89
May 2021 result Grn 634 Lab 242 C 162 Burrnley and Padiham Independent Party 67
May 2019 result Grn 770 Lab 209 Burrnley and Padihamm Independent Party 107 LD 36 C 35
May 2018 result Grn 789 Lab 291 C 75 Burrnley and Padiham Independent Party 45
May 2016 result Lab 452 LD 236 Grn 219
May 2015 result Lab 950 UKIP 509 LD 506
May 2014 result Lab 518 LD 287 TUSC 119
September 2012 by-election Lab 493 LD 256 C 96 BNP 95 UKIP 35 NF 26
May 2012 result Lab 558 LD 302 BNP 102
May 2011 result Lab 669 LD 246 C 140 BNP 129
May 2010 result Lab 672 LD 671 C 307 BNP 301
May 2008 result Lab 497 BNP 283 LD 244 C 147
May 2007 result Lab 514 BNP 369 LD 311 C 96
May 2006 result Lab 428 BNP 410 LD 266 C 156
June 2004 result Lab 984 C 475
May 2003 result Lab 598 BNP 491 LD 310 Socialist Alliance 38
May 2002 result Lab 1022/914/897 BNP 643 LD 626 Socialist Alliance 273
Previous results in detail
If you enjoyed these previews, there are many more like them — going back to 2016 — in the Andrew’s Previews books, which are available to buy now (link). The 2022 edition is out now! You can also support future previews by donating to the Local Elections Archive Project (link).
Andrew Teale
