Previewing the four council by-elections of 22nd September 2022
“All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order”
Four by-elections on 22nd September 2022:
Maresfield
Wealden council, East Sussex; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Peter Roundell.
Last week we saw the first two Conservative election wins of the Charles III/Truss era, one of which fell in Sussex. The Conservatives now have the chance for a second election win in Sussex in consecutive weeks, as they defend the Maresfield ward of Wealden council.
The village of Maresfield can be found in the Sussex countryside a few miles north of Uckfield, roughly equidistant from Crawley to the north-west, Tunbridge Wells to the north-east, Eastbourne to the south-east and Brighton to the south-west. This village lies at the southern end of Ashdown Forest, which was once a major ironworking centre; but by the time the Industrial Revolution came all the iron here had been worked out, and Maresfield remained a small agricultural village well into the 20th century. The First World War led to major changes here, as the lord of the manor then was Alexander Münster, a German prince who saw his estates confiscated and then sold off as war reparations. The Maresfield ward also includes the village of Nutley, located to the north-west on the main road towards East Grinstead.
Although this ward has the same boundaries as Maresfield parish, when Maresfield ward was created in 2019 it had no obvious predecessor. Before then Maresfield itself was part of the Buxted and Maresfield ward, Nutley was in the ward of Danehill/Fletching/Nutley, and the village of Dowdeswell to the north was included in Hartfield ward. These had all returned Conservative councillors at every occasion this century, and indeed nobody opposed the Conservative slate in Danehill/Fletching/Nutley in 2007. Peter Roundell had represented that ward since 2011, transferring to the new Maresfield ward in 2019 where he enjoyed a 62–31 lead over the Green Party. The ward is also in a safe-Conservative division of East Sussex county council (Maresfield and Buxted).
Peter Roundell resigned from Wealden council over the summer, with a newsletter from the local county councillor Roy Galley indicating that Roundell was opposed to the planning policy put forward by the local Conservative administration. So this could be a trickier by-election defence than it looks on paper for the new Conservative candidate, who is Roy Galley’s wife Helen. In a straight fight Helen Galley is opposed by the Green candidate Ian Tysh, a retired solicitor who fought this ward in 2019 and was runner-up here in the 2021 county council elections.
Parliamentary constituency: Wealden
East Sussex county council division: Maresfield and Buxted
ONS Travel to Work Area: Eastbourne (Maresfield), Crawley (Nutley), Tunbridge Wells (Dowdeswell)
Postcode district: TN22
Helen Galley (C)
Ian Tysh (Grn)
May 2019 result C 668 Grn 333 Lab 76
Previous results in detail
Sherbourne
Coventry council, West Midlands; caused by the death of Labour councillor Seamus Walsh.
For the second time in recent months this column travels to Coventry following the death of a Labour councillor who had only recently been re-elected in May. The previous by-election in Binley and Willenhall ward in July turned out to be rather closer than expected in what had traditionally been a safe Labour ward.
Sherbourne ward is politically very different territory. It’s named after the River Sherbourne, which runs under Coventry city centre but is in the open where it passes through this ward. The main thoroughfare here is the Holyhead Road, the main road from Coventry city centre to Birmingham, and Sherbourne ward runs from the inner ring road (the edge of the city centre) to the Allesley roundabout.
In the 2011 census Sherbourne ward had 3.3% of its population born in the Republic of Ireland, which was the highest Irish figure for any ward in the West Midlands and in the top 25 wards in England and Wales. Much of the ward’s housing is interwar development. with the exception of Spon End near the city centre where there are some older and newer buildings. Here can be found the Butts Park Area, home of Coventry rugby club, and the headquarters of Ofqual. Spon End is very much the working-class end of Sherbourne ward, compared to Coundon further out.
This is a by-election to watch, as we have here a very marginal ward in a very marginal parliamentary seat. The local constituency is Coventry North West, which returned the former Paymaster General Geoffrey Robinson to Parliament continuously from 1976 until his retirement in 2019. His Labour replacement, Taiwo Owatemi, was elected in December 2019 with a majority over the Conservatives of just 208 votes.
Sherbourne ward has been just as close in all of its last three elections. At the first poll on the current boundaries in 2004 it returned a full slate of Conservatives, but Labour gained the Tory seats over the period 2010–12 and turned the ward safe. In 2019 Sherbourne suddenly became marginal again with the Labour majority falling to 57 votes; the Conservatives then broke through in 2021 to gain a seat in Sherbourne by 99 votes.
The May 2022 Coventry elections took place in an interesting political context, with the national swing to Labour counteracted by a long and damaging strike by the city’s bin-lorry drivers. In the event this didn’t cost Coventry Labour any seats, but there was a very close call in Sherbourne ward. Labour councillor Seamus Walsh, who had gained his seat off the Conservatives in 2010, was re-elected for a fourth term with 1,455 votes against 1,420 for the Conservatives’ Jackie Gardiner, a majority of 35. In percentage terms that’s 40–39. The bin-lorry drivers’ strike has since been settled, with the drivers accepting a pay increase of up to 12.9% in July.
Also in July, newly re-elected Labour councillor Seamus Walsh passed away at the age of 70. Walsh was part of a political dynasty in the city — his father and brother had both served as Labour councillors — and he was one of the council’s representatives on the West Midlands fire authority.
This isn’t a crucial by-election for Labour, who have a large majority on Coventry council, but it’s a difficult one nonetheless. Their defending candidate is Des Arthur, who is a postman and a Communication Workers Union officer. The Tories have reselected Jackie Gardiner, whose election literature may be a classic of the “glum councillors pointing at potholes” genre but there is a point to that: her late father, a magistrate and freeman of the city, broke his back driving over a pothole and never fully regained his health. Also standing are Bruce Tetlow for the Green Party, Jamie Simpson for the Lib Dems, Jane Nellist (wife of the former Militant MP Dave Nellist) for the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, and Cameron Baxter for the localist Coventry Citizens Party.
Parliamentary constituency: Coventry North West
ONS Travel to Work Area: Coventry
Postcode districts: CV1, CV5, CV6
Des Arthur (Lab)
Cameron Baxter (Coventry Citizens)
Jackie Gardiner (C)
Jane Nellist (TUSC)
Jamie Simpson (LD)
Bruce Tetlow (Grn)
May 2022 result Lab 1455 C 1420 Grn 336 LD 176 TUSC 159 Coventry Citizens 100
May 2021 result C 1771 Lab 1672 Grn 361 LD 189 Coventry Citizens 143 TUSC 62
May 2019 result Lab 1172 C 1115 UKIP 484 Grn 388 LD 216
May 2018 result Lab 1460 C 959 Ind 307 Grn 285 Ind 193 TUSC 91
May 2016 result Lab 1513 UKIP 703 C 593 Grn 176 TUSC 142 LD 136
May 2015 result Lab 2915 C 2050 UKIP 1318 Grn 404 TUSC 308 LD 306
May 2014 result Lab 1459 UKIP 937 C 710 Grn 285 TUSC 93 BNP 73
May 2012 result Lab 1833 C 705 Grn 225 BNP 173 Socialist Alternative 145 LD 96
May 2011 result Lab 2606 C 1281 LD 281 Grn 220 BNP 195 Socialist Alternative 117
May 2010 result Lab 3208 C 2070 LD 1353 BNP 434 Grn 205 Socialist Alternative 163 Ind 143
May 2008 result C 1546 Lab 1123 LD 312 BNP 280 Grn 196 Socialist Alternative 135
May 2007 result C 1197 Lab 1175 Ind 416 LD 392 BNP 290 Socialist Alternative 207
May 2006 result C 1457 Lab 1169 LD 597 Socialist Alternative 357
June 2004 result C 1787/1767/1727 Lab 1395/1392/1316 LD 897 Socialist Alternative 446
Previous results in detail
Bentilee and Ubberley
Stoke-on-Trent council, Staffordshire; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Stephen Funnell.
From one Midlands city we travel to another, although not one that’s nearly as coherent. In 1910 five towns in northern Staffordshire were fused together in the pottery kiln of local government to form the city of Stoke-on-Trent, which remains a polycentric area. In the 1950s the city council built Bentilee.
After last week’s trip to a peripheral council estate on the edge of Mansfield, we now come to a peripheral council estate on the edge of Stoke-on-Trent with a remarkable census return to match. In the 2011 census 28.7% of Bentilee and Ubberley ward’s workforce were employed in routine occupations, which was the highest figure for any ward in the West Midlands and number 3 in England and Wales (the two wards with higher figures were in Corby and in Shirebrook, Derbyshire). 47% of Bentilee and Ubberley ward’s residents had no qualifications, which was the highest figure for any ward in the West Midlands and in the top 20 in England and Wales. Despite a few decades of Right to Buy 58.0% of households were still socially rented, which was the highest figure for any ward in the West Midlands and in the top 25 in England and Wales. 12.8% of the workforce were long-term sick or disabled, which was the highest figure for any ward in the West Midlands and in the top 40 in England and Wales. The ward also makes the top 100 in England and Wales for those employed in the wholesale and retail sector (23.0%).
So, how do deprived council estates like this vote in local elections? Well, in common with a lot of Stoke-on-Trent the short answer to that question is “volatile”. In the 2000s this ward was the southern two-thirds of Bentilee and Townsend ward, which in the period 2008–10 had a full slate of three BNP councillors. Labour have won all three elections to date on the current boundaries, although UKIP were very close to taking a seat in 2015 — the year Labour lost their majority on Stoke-on-Trent council. A coalition of the Conservatives and City Independents was formed to run the city, with the Tories becoming the largest party in 2019. They have since dumped their coalition partners and now run the city as a minority, with defection and by-election gains over the last three years now giving the Conservative group 22 seats out of a possible 44. A Conservative gain here would give the Tories an overall majority on Stoke-on-Trent council for the first time since the federation of 1910.
What are the chances of that? Well, the May 2019 election for Bentilee and Ubberley turned in a fragmented result, with Labour holding both seats on just 33% of the vote. Disputing second place with 22% each were the City Independents and UKIP, with the far-right For Britain Movement coming in fourth on 14%. The Tories, contesting the ward for the first time, trailed in last place on just 9%.
This definitely does not mean that you should write off the Conservatives here. Since May 2019 the Labour vote in the city has collapsed to the level that Stoke now has a full slate of three Conservative MPs — something which not so very long ago would have been completely unthinkable. The Stoke-on-Trent Central constituency, which covers almost all of this ward and which I extensively previewed for the parliamentary by-election in 2017 (Andrew’s Previews 2017, page 53), now has a Conservative majority of just 670 votes. Like in Coventry, we have here a by-election in a very marginal parliamentary seat.
Unlike in Coventry there have been no ordinary local elections in Stoke since 2019, but in 2021 the Tories pulled off two by-election gains from essentially nowhere: in Moorcroft ward in May 2021 from Labour (Andrew’s Previews 2021, pages 111 and 186), and in Penkhull and Stoke ward two months later from the City Independents (ibid., page 257) where the Conservatives won by improving their vote from 6.5% to 41%. To clear up a loose end from the Penkhull and Stoke by-election, this had been caused by the previous City Independents councillor Randy Conteh being charged with the rape of a schoolgirl in the 1990s; he was subsequently found guilty in June 2022, and he is now serving a nine-year prison sentence.
The outgoing Labour councillor here is Stephen Funnell, who was first elected in 2015 with a seven-vote majority over UKIP. He has resigned from the council due to “differences” with his local party.
Defending for Labour is Lynn Watkins, a retired teacher. The City Independents have reselected Sharon Edwards, a care worker who was runner-up here in 2019. UKIP and the For Britain Movement have not returned, so the Conservatives’ Matthew Bridger — a staffer for the Stoke Central Conservative MP Jo Gideon — completes the ballot paper.
Parliamentary constituency: Stoke-on-Trent Central (almost all)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Stoke-on-Trent
Postcode districts: ST2, ST3
Matthew Bridger (C)
Sharon Edwards (City Ind)
Lynn Watkins (Lab)
May 2019 result Lab 528/519 City Ind 357/266 UKIP 354 For Britain Movement 233 C 143/95
May 2015 result Lab 1089/1059 UKIP 1052/902 City Ind 701/617 British Voice 82
May 2011 result Lab 849/596 BNP 429 Ind 404/330 Community Voice 231 LD 67
Previous results in detail
Llanuwchllyn
Gwynedd council, North Wales; caused by the disqualification of Plaid Cymru councillor Alan Evans, who failed to sign his declaration of acceptance of office.
For our final by-election this week we travel to Wales for a landscape of mountains and lakes which lies entirely within the Snowdonia National Park. The mountains here include the highest point in England and Wales south of Snowdon, the 905-metre summit of Aran Fawddwy which was once the county top of Merionethshire. A climb to the top of Aran Fawddwy will be rewarded by an extensive view: on the clearest of days the Lake District and the Wicklow Mountains, both over 100 miles away, are visible.
The lakes here are implied by the very name of Llanuwchllyn, which translates into the English language as “church above the lake”. The lake here is Llyn Tegid, better known to English speakers as Bala Lake. This is a natural lake, created by the last Ice Age which dumped a glacial moraine at what is now Bala and blocked the valley. The main road from Dolgellau to Chester runs along the north side of the lake from Llanuwhcllyn to Bala; along the south side can be found the narrow-gauge Bala Lake Railway, opened in 1972 on the former mainline route from Ruabon to Barmouth.
Boundary changes for the 2022 election reconfigured Llanuwchllyn ward, which now lies west of Bala rather than south of it. This has brought the Llanycil community into the ward, and with it part of a lake of much more recent and much more controversial vintage.
In 1965 the Tryweryn valley north-west of Bala was dammed, creating the reservoir of Llyn Celyn which supplies water to the far-off city of Liverpool. Under the waters of Llyn Celyn, and occasionally exposed by dry weather such as we have had recently, lies the remains of the village of Capel Celyn which — despite the language of the film above — was one of the last entirely Welsh-speaking villages in the area. Liverpool Corporation had got around the planning process by promoting the Tryweryn Reservoir Bill, which passed Parliament despite mass protests in Wales and with 35 of the 36 Welsh MPs voting against.
To quote a famous Welsh graffito, Cofiwch Dryweryn. And Tryweryn has not been forgotten. The controversial flooding of Capel Celyn inspired the 1960s Welsh paramilitary organisation MAC, and gave a shot in the arm to the Welsh devolution movement and to Plaid Cymru. Plaid have represented this area in Parliament continuously since 1974; the current MP for Dwyfor Merionnydd, Liz Saville Roberts, has been leader of the party’s Westminster delegation since 2017.
Savile Roberts’ political future may depend rather crucially on what decisions the Boundary Commission for Wales make in their current review. Dwyfor Meirionnydd is the smallest constituency on the British mainland by headcount, hovering around 45,000 electors. The draft proposals from the BCW expand this seat north through Caernarfon to the edge of Bangor, which has the effect of merging two Plaid Cymru-held seats into one. If this sticks into the final map, the party’s selection contest might be interesting to watch.
We can see the rural nature and sparse population of this area in its census return. The previous Llanuwchllyn ward was in the top 15 wards in England and Wales for those working in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector (19.6%), in the top 40 wards for those born in the UK (98.6%), in the top 50 wards for self-employment (26.4%), and in the top 60 wards for households living rent-free (5.4%).
This area is administered from Caernarfon by Gwynedd council, where Plaid Cymru have a secure majority. Alan Evans had set on Gwynedd council since 2008, when he stood as an independent candidate and defeated Plaid councillor Dafydd Roberts; Evans then joined Plaid Cymru in 2011 and was re-elected with their nomination in 2012, 2017 and May 2022. All of those were unopposed returns — this is fairly normal for rural Wales — so there hasn’t been a contested local election in Llanuwchllyn since 2008.
Unfortunately for Alan Evans, it appears that he didn’t do the paperwork properly after his re-election in May. Specifically, he didn’t sign his declaration of acceptance of office, which is something you have to do in Wales in order to take up your council seat. Once the two-month deadline for doing so had expired, Evans’ seat was declared vacant. Oops.
Evans is now seeking re-election for Plaid Cymru in the by-election caused by his own disqualification. And this time he has to face a contest: standing against him is Anne Williams, who has the Liberal Democrat nomination.
Parliamentary and Assembly constituency: Dwyfor Meirionnydd
ONS Travel to Work Area: Tywyn and Dolgellau
Postcode districts: LL23, LL40
Alan Evans (PC)
Anne Williams (LD)
May 2022 PC unopposed
If you enjoyed these previews, there are many more like them — going back to 2016 — in the Andrew’s Previews books, which are available to buy now (link). You can also support future previews by donating to the Local Elections Archive Project (link).
Andrew Teale
