Previewing the Redditch by-elections of 1st September 2022
“All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order”
Two by-elections on 1st September 2022:
Arrow Valley West
Worcestershire county council; and
Headless Cross and Oakenshaw
Redditch council, Worcestershire; both caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Aled Evans.
Welcome to the industrial West Midlands. Now, when presented with a sentence like that your mind’s eye might well start bringing up some image of the manufactories of inner-city Birmingham, the car plants of Coventry, the metal-bashing of the Black Country, the pottery kilns of Stoke-on-Trent or even something out of Peaky Blinders. You might have scenes like those at the opening ceremony for the recent Birmingham Commonwealth Games in your thoughts.
If so, then it’s my duty to inform you that you are well out of date. This is brought home by the slightly more timely statistics provided by the 2011 census, which clearly show us where the modern manufacturing centres of the West Midlands are. It’s not the big cities, or even the Black Country.
If we look at the proportion of people in each ward of the West Midlands region who work in manufacturing, a clear pattern emerges. There are 15 wards in the region where manufacturing employs more than 20% of the workforce: of those, seven are in Telford, six in Redditch and one each in Kidderminster and (thanks to JCB) Uttoxeter. The highest Black Country ward, Princes End ward in Sandwell, comes in at number 17. It’s not the old settlements where our manufacturers in the heart of England now thrive: it’s the New Towns.
Top of this list, with 24.0% manufacturing employment, is Lodge Park ward in Redditch. This is the centre of the Redditch New Town area, sandwiched in between the town’s main north-south road to the west and the River Arrow to the east. The Arrow valley was spared the New Town development and has been left as a country park, a green space dividing the Redditch urban area into two parts. Don’t look at this statistic for manufacturing jobs and assume that Lodge Park is necessarily a hellhole: its census districts are squarely in the middle of the deprivation indices, and no less an authority than Wikipedia unequivocally describes Lodge Park as “a lovely place to live”.
There was, of course, manufacturing in Redditch before it became a New Town in the 1960s. In the nineteenth century this was a fair-sized town which supplied 90% of the world’s needles; other major parts of the local economy were the manufacture of fishing tackle and the Royal Enfield motorcycle factory. A large chunk of the original town centre has disappeared under the enormous Kingfisher shopping mall, but there are still many pre-New Town buildings here. Redditch’s railway station, the southern terminus of the Cross City railway line to Birmingham and Lichfield, handles a million passengers a year from its single platform.
The New Town development has given Redditch an extensive road network with a large number of roundabouts. This has proved a nice source of fame for Britain’s self-styled dullest man, Redditch resident Kevin Beresford, who shot to fame in 2003 with the release of the first “Roundabouts of Redditch” calendar. But Redditch has another motoring claim to fame which is unique in England: the Headless Cross Interchange, which is the only cloverleaf road junction south of the Scottish border and one of only two in the UK.
And yes, that’s the Headless Cross which inspired a song and album by Black Sabbath.
New Towns are noted for political volatility, but Redditch is also a bellwether of sorts which deserves close attention. As such it’s a little unfortunate that this column hasn’t previewed the town in detail since 2014. We have a lot to catch up on.
The reason I describe Redditch as a bellwether is that the town’s parliamentary seat has voted for the winning party at every general election since it was created in 1997. Redditch’s former Labour MP Jacqui Smith rose to become Home Secretary under Gordon Brown, and has never fully left the public eye since losing her seat in 2010: she was still well-known enough in 2020 to be recruited for an unsuccessful tilt at Strictly Come Dancing.
Redditch council, which covers a slightly smaller area than the constituency, is also closely-fought. The Conservatives had been on a roll here in recent years, gaining overall control of Redditch council in 2018 and then going on to win 9 seats out of a possible 10 in the 2019 election (above).
2019 is the year of Redditch’s electoral cycle in which the best Labour wards do not poll, which makes the Tory clean sweep in the 2021 Redditch elections all the more impressive. The Conservatives won all 9 borough council seats up for election, gaining seven seats from Labour; and also won all 8 of the town’s Worcestershire county council seats, gaining three seats from Labour.
One of the beneficiaries of this good Conservative performance was Aled Evans, who was elected simultaneously as a county councillor for Arrow Valley West division (above) and as a borough councillor for Headless Cross and Oakenshaw ward (below). Headless Cross and Oakenshaw has voted Conservative in every Redditch borough election since the current ward boundaries were introduced in 2004, usually with a comfortable margin. Arrow Valley West combines the marginal Abbey ward (the town centre area) with Lodge Park ward and Greenlands ward in the south of the town; these are normally strong Labour areas, so the Conservatives’ 50–37 lead across the division last year was an excellent result. Labour county councillor Andrew Fry lost his seat; his former colleague in this two-seat division, Pattie Hill (previously known as Pattie Lailey), had lost her battle with cancer a few months previously.
There has to be a question-mark as to whether this Conservative performance can be sustained, given what happened in Redditch’s next borough elections twelve months later. Redditch Labour, who were facing the prospect of complete wipeout if the 2021 results were repeated, not only held all four seats they were defending but gained three more seats off the Conservatives for good measure. All three Arrow Valley West wards voted Labour, with Abbey ward being a gain; the votes across the division were 48% for Labour and 38% for the Conservatives. Headless Cross and Oakenshaw remained in Conservative hands, but now looks marginal with a Conservative lead of 50–40 over Labour; 40% is the best Labour share to date on the current boundaries of this ward, and the closest Labour have come to winning here since 2014 when there was a close three-way result involving UKIP.
Redditch’s thirds electoral system means that the Conservatives still have a comfortable majority despite this year’s reverses: the latest borough council composition stands at 19 Conservatives plus this vacancy, 7 Labour, 1 Conservative to Green defector and 1 Conservative to independent defector. If this year’s borough election results are repeated in 2023, then the Conservatives would lose three more seats which, as things stand, would still leave them with a majority of the council. However, if the Tories fail to hold today’s Headless Cross and Oakenshaw by-election then that would reduce their margin of error next May. The Arrow Valley West by-election looks an easier target for Labour on paper but is less likely to be consequential, because Worcestershire county council has a very large Conservative majority.
So Redditch is a place where we have clearly seen the electoral boom and bust of the Boris Johnson premiership. The two polls in Redditch today are the last by-elections of his time in the top job. With four of Redditch’s twelve wards covered by today’s polls, there are a lot of people who will be eligible to vote today.
Defending the Redditch council by-election in Headless Cross and Oakenshaw for the Conservatives is Helen Sanders. Juliet Barker Smith has been reselected by Labour after her good second-place result in May. The other unsuccessful candidate here in May, the ward’s regular Green candidate Alistair Waugh, is also back for another go; while the Lib Dems have joined in the fun this time by nominating Andrew Fieldsend-Roxborough.
For the county council by-election in Arrow Valley West the defending Conservatives have selected Gemma Monaco: she is a former deputy leader of Redditch council, but lost her seat in Batchley and Brockhill ward in May. Former Labour county councillor Andrew Fry is seeking to return; he was easily re-elected to Redditch council in May from Lodge Park ward. The Greens’ Glen Theobald and the Lib Dems’ Mark Tomes complete the county ballot paper. The local press have interviewed all eight candidates for the two polls, and you can find out more here (link).
This column has had some slim pickings of late, but autumn is a busy time of year for council by-elections and things will now start to pick up in earnest. Next week’s polls will be the first electoral test of the next Conservative prime minister who will have to hit the ground running: there are four more Tory defences coming up on 8th September. Stay tuned for those.
Arrow Valley West
Parliamentary constituency: Redditch
Redditch council wards: Abbey, Greenlands, Lodge Park
ONS Travel to Work Area: Birmingham
Postcode districts: B80, B90, B96, B97, B98
Andrew Fry (Lab)
Gemma Monaco (C)
Glen Theobald (Grn)
Mark Tomes (LD)
May 2021 result C 2193/1963 Lab 1633/1309 Grn 309/237 LD 249/233
May 2017 result Lab 1943/1797 C 1574/1276 UKIP 468/466 LD 290/220 Grn 176/126 Ind 121
May 2013 result Lab 1752/1604 UKIP 1395 C 985/877 Grn 263/169 LD 215/197
June 2009 result C 1677/1626 Lab 1410/1274 LD 1075/900 Grn 915
May 2005 result Lab 3941/3772 C 2449/2315 LD 1587/1444
Previous results in detail
Headless Cross and Oakenshaw
Parliamentary constituency: Redditch
Worcestershire county council division: Redditch South
ONS Travel to Work Area: Birmingham
Postcode districts: B97, B98
Juliet Barker Smith (Lab)
Andrew Fieldsend-Roxborough (LD)
Helen Sanders (C)
Alistair Waugh (Grn)
May 2022 result C 1059 Lab 864 Grn 214
May 2021 result C 1436 Lab 553 Grn 163 LD 130
May 2019 result C 846 Lab 441 UKIP 374 Grn 211 LD 148
May 2018 result C 1128 Lab 780 UKIP 151 Grn 151
May 2016 result C 826 Lab 559 UKIP 490 LD 136 Grn 117
May 2015 result C 1962 Lab 1288 UKIP 871 LD 244 Grn 215
May 2014 result C 805 UKIP 743 Lab 732 Grn 109 LD 84
May 2012 result C 910 Lab 592 Grn 235 LD 167
May 2011 result C 1373 Lab 997 Grn 198 LD 187
May 2010 result C 2094 Lab 1294 LD 1008 Grn 228
March 2009 by-election C 764 Lab 502 LD 162 Grn 113 Ind 45
May 2008 result C 1493 Lab 550 LD 330
May 2007 result C 1464 Lab 666 LD 401
May 2006 result C 1276 LD 682 Lab 494
June 2004 result C 1174/1170/1141 Lab 767/720/705 LD 503/441/368
Previous results in detail
If you enjoyed these previews, there are many more like them — going back to 2016 — in the Andrew’s Previews books, which are available to buy now (link). You can also support future previews by donating to the Local Elections Archive Project (link).
Andrew Teale
