Previewing the three council by-elections of 9th March 2023
“All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order”
Three by-elections on 9th March 2023:
Corstorphine/Murrayfield
Edinburgh city council, Scotland; caused by the resignation of Scottish National Party councillor Frank Ross.
We are now very much in the run up to Thursday 4th May, when local elections will take place for most locations in the UK. The local by-election calendar for the rest of this month is quiet, with no more than three polls taking place on any day; and nothing is currently in the diary for April.
All of the local by-elections taking place this month are in areas of the UK which won’t be taking part in May’s elections: in London, Scotland, Wales, and a few English districts which aren’t on the standard cycle for various reasons. This week we have a big city special on Andrew’s Previews, with all of today’s three local by-elections taking place in Edinburgh or London. Let’s go to Edinburgh first.
The Scotland rugby team are going through a good patch at the moment. After three rounds of this year’s Six Nations tournament they are lying second in the table behind Ireland, and their last two games are at home: Scotland entertain Ireland on Sunday and Italy a week on Saturday.
Both of those matches will take place at the largest sports stadium in Scotland, Murrayfield stadium in Edinburgh. This is located in the west of the city, on low ground between the Water of Leith and the railway lines travelling west towards Glasgow. These have been supplemented in recent years by Edinburgh’s tram line, whose stations at Murrayfield Stadium and Balgreen lie within the ward boundary.
To the west of Murrayfield lies Corstorphine, one of those places whose pronunciation is a trap for the non-local: the stress falls on the middle syllable. This area lies on the southern slopes of Corstorphine Hill, much of which remains undeveloped.
Some of Corstorphine Hill’s lower slopes are occupied by Edinburgh Zoo, which is Scotland’s second-most popular tourist attraction which charges an admission fee (after Edinburgh Castle). This is the UK’s only zoo at which giant pandas can be seen: Yang Guang and Tian Tian arrived here in 2011, and are due to return to China at the end of this year.
Edinburgh Zoo has had a number of other famous residents. Consider Wojtek, a brown bear cub from Iran who was adopted in 1942 by Polish soldiers from the 22nd Artillery Supply Company. He became the company’s mascot as it travelled around the Middle East during the Second World War. When the 22nd were sent to fight in the Italian campaign, the transport ship did not allow mascots or pet animals; to get around this, Wojtek was enlisted in the Polish army with the rank of private. He was promoted to corporal following sterling service at the Battle of Monte Cassino, in which he reportedly helped his unit by carrying 45kg boxes of ammunition which normally required four men to lug around. Cpl Wojtek found himself in Scotland at the end of the war; he was demobilised in 1947 and retired to Edinburgh Zoo, where he died in 1963.
Wojtek the bear may have been the bravest animal on Edinburgh Zoo’s roster; but he has been outranked. In 1972 the Norwegian King’s Guard, who had sent a drill team to perform in the Edinburgh Military Tattoo, officially adopted as their regimental mascot a king penguin from the zoo. He was named Nils Olav, after Lt Nils Egelien (whose idea this was) and King Olav V, and given the rank of lance-corporal. Every time since then that the King’s Guard have returned to the Edinburgh Tattoo, they have gone to the zoo and promoted Nils Olav; as of 2016, he has a knighthood and the rank of brigadier. Here is the third and current Sir Nils Olav, inspecting his troops.
Unfortunately Brigadier Sir Nils Olav III is not eligible to vote. The Scottish Government has expanded the Scottish local government franchise quite a lot in recent years, including granting the vote to 16-year-olds, all foreigners legally resident in Scotland, and even some prisoners; but the Holyrood parliament is yet to vote to enfranchise penguins.
Corstorphine and Murrayfield are affluent areas of Edinburgh and vote like it. Most of the ward is covered by the Edinburgh West parliamentary seat, which has been held by the Liberal Democrats in Westminster since 1997 with the exception of the 2015 SNP landslide. The SNP MP here during 2015–17, Michelle Thomson, subsequently lost the party’s whip following a scandal over property she had bought, allegedly for below market prices; she has since been readmitted to the SNP, and she was elected to Holyrood in 2021 as MSP for Falkirk East. The local MP here since 2017 has been Christine Jardine, who is currently the Lib Dems’ spokeswoman for Scotland, the Cabinet Office, women and equalities. Scotland may have more giant pandas than Labour MPs, but this is not true of Liberal Democrats.
In Holyrood elections Corstorphine is part of the Edinburgh Western constituency which is also in Lib Dem hands: it’s represented by the Scottish Lib Dem leader Alex Cole-Hamilton. Murrayfield is included within the Edinburgh Central constituency, which has returned three different MSPs at the last three elections: Angus Robertson gained the seat for the SNP in 2021 after the former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson retired.
The city of Edinburgh as a whole is a very politically balanced area with large council groups for all five of the main Scottish political parties. The 2022 elections here returned 19 SNP councillors, 13 Labour, 12 Lib Dems, 10 Greens and 9 Conservatives. There had been an SNP-Labour coalition running the council prior to 2022, but there was no appetite for this to continue; some rather messy horse-trading produced a Labour minority administration with just 13 out of 63 seats. Just how precarious a position this is was demonstrated by the council’s budget meeting last month, in which the Lib Dems’ budget for 2023–24 was approved rather than the administration’s.
Corstorphine/Murrayfield ward was created in 2007 and elects three councillors by proportional representation. It returned two Lib Dems and a Conservative in 2007. The SNP gained one of the Lib Dem seats in 2012; the 2017 election (on revised boundaries) saw no change. Shares of the vote were 33% for the Conservatives, 31% for the Lib Dems and 22% for the SNP.
In 2022, however, the Conservative vote here collapsed as it did across much of Edinburgh. Here it cost them a seat. The Lib Dem vote ballooned to 50%, and they won two seats; the SNP polled 19% and held their seat; the Conservatives fell to 16% and lost out. If we recount the votes for a single seat, as will happen in this by-election, then the poll-topping Lib Dem candidate Alan Beal beat the SNP’s Frank Ross by the massive margin of 72–28.
This by-election is to fill the seat left vacant by the resignation of Frank Ross, who had been the SNP councillor for this ward since 2012. In his first term he became depute leader of the council and leader of the SNP group, and from 2017 to 2022 he was the Lord Provost of Edinburgh. However, Ross had had a falling-out with the SNP group in December 2022, as a result of the council voting not to compensate businesses in the Roseburn area of the ward which had lost custom as a result of works to construct a cycleway in the area. He resigned from the council in January, ostensibly to take up a new role in his long accountancy career. In his spare time Ross is a keen curler: he has spent much of the last month in Canada, as part of the Scotland squad taking on the best Canadian curling clubs in the Strathcona Cup.
Starting with a 31-point deficit against the Lib Dems on first preferences and even further behind on a two-party preferred basis, the SNP have it all to do to hold this by-election. Their defending candidate is Donald Rutherford, who is a full-time carer. The Lib Dems have snagged top place on the ballot paper with their selection of Fiona Bennett, a former nurse and charity worker. The Conservatives have reselected Hugh Findlay who was their candidate here last year; he is a consultant in business and technology and chairs the party’s Edinburgh branch. Also standing are Richard Parker for Labour, Chris Young for the Greens, Richard Fettes for the Scottish Family Party, independent candidate Pete Gregson (a Murrayfield community councillor), independent candidate Elaine Miller (a psychotherapist, comedian and campaigner against the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill), and Gary Smith of the Libertarian Party. The Alternative Vote is in use for this by-election, please rank the candidates on your ballot paper in order of preference.
Parliamentary constituency: Edinburgh West (most), Edinburgh North and Leith (small part)
Scottish Parliament constituency: Edinburgh Central (Murrayfield), Edinburgh Western (Corstorphine)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Edinburgh
Postcode districts: EH1, EH2, EH3, EH4, EH11, EH12
Fiona Bennett (LD)
Richard Fettes (Scottish Family Party)
Hugh Findlay (C)
Pete Gregson (Ind)
Elaine Miller (Ind)
Richard Parker (Lab)
Donald Rutherford (SNP)
Gary Smith (Libertarian)
Chris Young (Grn)
May 2022 first preferences LD 5669 SNP 2132 C 1818 Lab 893 Grn 784 Scottish Family Party 88
May 2017 first preferences C 3819 LD 3502 SNP 2474 Lab 878 Grn 598 Ind 92 UKIP 66
Previous results in detail
Voter ID
From May, you will need photo ID to vote in person at a parliamentary election in Great Britain or a local election in England. If you don’t have one of the accepted forms of photo ID, you can apply for a free Voter Authority Certificate or a postal vote from your local council elections office. Do it now and beat the rush.
For more information and to apply for a VAC or postal vote, go to electoralcommission.org.uk/voterid.
Tottenham Hale
Haringey council, London; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Yannis Gourtsoyannis.
We now travel from the capital city of Scotland to the capital city of England for our remaining two by-elections today. Let’s start in the Lea Valley.
When I researched this piece, my search for “Tottenham Hale” in a well-known internet search engine produced a piece of auto-generated purple prose which might almost tempt someone to visit the place:
Peaceful, suburban Tottenham Hale is a gateway to the sprawling Walthamstow Wetlands nature reserve, where reservoirs and marshes are home to kingfishers, peregrine falcons, and butterflies. Casual global restaurants and traditional pubs line the area’s bustling High Road, along with chain retailers and supermarkets. Express trains between central London and Stansted Airport stop at Tottenham Hale station.
One wonders whether one of those new AI chatbots has been let loose on that description. The Walthamstow Wetlands are in fact over the borough boundary in Waltham Forest, while this ward only covers the eastern side of the High Road. Those people who were working in the retail park opposite Tottenham Hale station when it was looted and torched in the 2011 riots might take issue with the description of “peaceful”. True, Tottenham Hale is a major transport interchange and a stop for Stansted Express trains; the Stansted Express goes to Liverpool Street in the city, and airport passengers for the West End would be well-advised to change here for the Victoria Line of the Underground. Those living on or near the High Road might find that Bruce Grove, on the London Overground route from Liverpool Street to Cheshunt or Enfield Town, is more convenient for them.
The census return for Tottenham Hale ward also looks much more inner-city than suburban. A large number of students living here complicates matters, but this is definitely not a middle-class area. It’s a melting-pot: Tottenham Hale is in the top 100 wards in England and Wales for those born in Bulgaria or Romania (9.0%), in European states outside the EU (5.8%), in Croatia, Cyprus or Malta (1.0%), in the Americas or the Caribbean (8.0%) or in Africa (11.1%). It’s in the top 30 wards for those working in the administrative or support sector (10.1%) and in the top 70 for black ethnicity (27.4%). The whole ward is in the bottom half of the deprivation indices, with the Chesnut Road estate in the south-west corner being in the most-deprived 10% of census districts.
The local authority here is Haringey council, which has had a Labour majority since 1971. The 2022 London borough elections were the best this century for Haringey Labour, who won 50 seats against 7 for the Lib Dems. Tottenham Hale ward is part of that Labour majority, and is very safe for the party in current political conditions. In 2022, on revised boundaries, the Labour slate won the ward with 68%; the Green Party’s 16% was best of the rest.
Tottenham Hale ward is part of the safe-Labour Tottenham parliamentary seat, which has been represented in Parliament since a 2000 by-election by David Lammy. He currently holds the post of shadow foreign secretary, having joined the shadow cabinet in 2020 when Sir Keir Starmer became the party leader.
The outgoing councillor here is Yannis Gourtsoyannis, a Momentumite who was first elected in 2022. Away from the council he is a doctor, specialising in infectious diseases. He stood down from the council in February for personal reasons.
Defending for Labour is Sean O’Donovan, who contested Fortis Green ward in last year’s Haringey elections and came within 100 votes of winning. This should be an easier prospect for him. The Greens have selected Emma Chan, who gives an address in the ward; she fought St Ann’s ward last year. Also standing are Angelos Tsangarides for the Conservatives, Allen Windsor for the Lib Dems, Amelia Allao for the evangelical Christian Peoples Alliance and independent candidate Miraf Negusse Ghebreawariat.
Parliamentary constituency: Tottenham
London Assembly constituency: Enfield and Haringey
ONS Travel to Work Area: London
Postcode district: N17
Amelia Allao (CPA)
Emma Chan (Grn)
Miraf Negusse Ghebreawariat (Ind)
Sean O’Donovan (Lab)
Angelos Tsangarides (C)
Allen Windsor (LD)
May 2022 result Lab 1396/1206/1201 Grn 319/281 C 170/161/141 LD 163/154/126
Previous results in detail
Heston West
Hounslow council, London; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Adriana Gheorghe.
We finish for the week in western London, with an area which has long been associated with the aviation industry. We are not far from Heathrow airport, and the southern end of this ward is overflown by aircraft landing on Heathrow’s north runway. But before Heathrow there was Heston Aerodrome, which opened in 1929 and operated until 1947. Heston was never London’s most important airport — in the inter-war years, that was Croydon — but it has its place in history. In September 1938 the Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain, landed at Heston on a flight from Munich with a piece of paper in his hand, proclaiming “peace for our time”. We all know how that worked out.
After the war nearby Heathrow became the main airport for London, and that spelt the end for regular flights from Heston. A large amount of the former aerodrome’s area is now given over to sport and recreation: this is the home of the Airlinks golf course and the British Airways Concorde sports club. The open space also provided a convenient route into central London for the M4 motorway, whose Heston service area is here.
This being outer London, there’s also quite a lot of industry, quite a lot of which is connected with Heathrow in some way or another. This includes the Western International Market, operated by Hounslow council: this is one of London’s largest wholesale markets, and its location means that fresh food imported through Heathrow often ends up being sold here on the way to your table.
All this open space means that Heston West ward’s population is confined to the edges of the ward. Most of the housing here is to the south of the former aerodrome along Cranford Lane, with street names which recall the early days of aviation. To the north of the motorway and golf course is North Hyde, a linear development along the southern bank of the Grand Union Canal.
Heston West ward is a major focus of London’s Sikh community. In the 2021 census its Sikh population of 31.8% was the third-highest of any ward in England and Wales; the ward borders Southall Green ward in Ealing, which is home to London’s largest gurdwara. The ward is in the top 25 in England and Wales for those working in the transport and storage sector (14.6%), also in the top 25 for those born in the Middle East and Asia (37.9%), and in the top 80 for Asian ethnicity (58.8%).
Appropriately enough, the local MP — Seema Malhotra, who has represented Feltham and Heston since winning a by-election in 2011 — is of Asian ethnicity herself. Malhotra is a Labour MP, and the local authority, Hounslow council, has had a majority of Labour councillors since 2010. In last year’s Hounslow council elections, Labour increased their majority to 51–9 over the Conservatives. Heston West ward has voted Labour throughout this century, including in a December 2019 by-election; on revised boundaries in May 2022, the Labour slate had a 64–20 lead over the Conservatives.
This by-election follows the resignation of Labour councillor Adriana Gheorghe, who topped the poll here in 2022. She was first elected as a Hounslow councillor in 2018, and previously represented Bedfont ward before transferring here following boundary changes.
Defending for Labour is Emma Siddhu, who is on the staff of the local MP Seema Malhotra; she is hoping to join her husband Raghwinder on the council. The Conservative candidate is Muraad Chaudhry, who contested Hounslow South ward last year. Also standing are Rashid Wahab for the Greens, independent candidate Bart Kuleba and Chaitan Shah for the Liberal Democrats.
Parliamentary constituency: Feltham and Heston
London Assembly constituency: South West
ONS Travel to Work Area: Slough and Heathrow
Postcode districts: TW5, UB2
Muraad Chaudhry (C)
Bart Kuleba (Ind)
Chaitan Shah (LD)
Emma Siddhu (Lab)
Rashid Wahab (Grn)
May 2022 result Lab 1998/1906/1768 C 637/553/550 Grn 475
Previous results in detail
If you enjoyed these previews, there are many more like them — going back to 2016 — in the Andrew’s Previews books, which are available to buy now (link). You can also support future previews by donating to the Local Elections Archive Project (link).
Andrew Teale
