Previewing the three local by-elections of 24th August 2023
“All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order”
Three by-elections on 24th August 2023:
Wootton Bridge
Isle of Wight council; caused by the resignation of Vectis Party councillor Daryll Pitcher.
Let’s go offshore for our first by-election of the day. We’ve come to the north coast of the Isle of Wight, looking out over the Solent to the town of Gosport a few miles away. Wight’s north coast is deeply indented by a number of estuaries, including that of Wootton Creek; there is a bridge over that estuary which carries the main road from Newport to Ryde, and that bridge has given its name to a parish and to this electoral division.
Wootton is quite a common place-name in England, and to reduce confusion the Royal Mail refer to the main settlement in this ward as Wootton Bridge. The parish and, since 2009, the electoral division are also called Wootton Bridge. However, the local railway station, now the terminus of the preserved Isle of Wight Steam Railway, is called Wootton. The Ordnance Survey also refer to the village here as simply Wootton: whatever this village is called, it can be found immediately to the west of the bridge and has a population of just under 3,000. The ward and parish also covers some more temporary housing, including the PGL adventure centre of Little Canada next to the creek and some rather more sedate holiday chalets on the north coast. Hopefully they’re busy at this time of year.
Also on the north coast was the site of the legendary 1969 Isle of Wight Festival, when 150,000 people came to the island for some great music. The highlight of the festival was a legendary comeback gig from Bob Dylan, which was recorded and is commercially available: there are also some bootleg recordings of some or all of Dylan’s set circulating, including this one.
For some reason the Isle of Wight has been a favourite target of the Local Government Boundary Commission in this century, but Wootton Bridge division has survived a number of boundary reviews to be unchanged since at least 2001. Of its six elections to date in this century, the score stands at four to Barry Abrahams of the Conservatives and two to Daryll Pitcher. Pitcher was first elected here in 2013 as a UKIP candidate, lost his seat to Abrahams in 2017, then got it back in 2021 on the ticket of the localist Vectis Party of which he was leader. Shares of the vote here in 2021 were 47% for the Vectis Party, 32% for the Conservatives and 13% for the Greens, making Pitcher the only Vectis Party member of the council. During his previous period as a UKIP councillor Pitcher was also a parliamentary candidate, contesting the Suffolk Coastal seat for UKIP in 2015; he finished in third place with 16% of the vote.
Unfortunately, there are a few by-elections coming up in the next few weeks which have come out of the Councillors Behaving Badly file. Daryll Pitcher’s case is the most serious of them. In February a jury at Isle of Wight Crown Court found him guilty of two counts of rape of a girl under 13; the offences happened between 1990 and 1992, while Pitcher was still a child himself.
Sentencing was deferred until April, when Pitcher was sent to prison for two years and three months and ordered to sign the sex offenders’ register. This sentence disqualifies him from being a councillor, but the disqualification does not kick in until the three-week deadline to appeal the conviction or sentence expires, or until any appeal is finally disposed of. The three-week deadline came and went with Pitcher still listed as a councillor, so presumably he has put an appeal in; however, in July the Isle of Wight returning officer eventually received a resignation letter sent from Daryll Pitcher’s prison cell.
Which forces a by-election to the ever-fascinating Isle of Wight council. This has often swung against the national trend in recent years: the Conservatives lost their majority in 2013, got it back in 2017, and then lost it again in 2021. The 2021 elections, held on new ward boundaries, returned 18 Conservative councillors, 13 independents, 2 Greens, 2 councillors for the Island Independent Network, and one seat each for Labour, the Lib Dems and two localist groups, “Our Island” and the Vectis Party. The council is now run by the Alliance Group, which is a coalition of the independent, Green, Island Independent Network and Our Island councillors under an independent leader, with outside support from the Lib Dems and Vectis Party to get to the 20 seats needed for a majority on the council. A by-election in November 2022 in Brighstone, Calbourne and Shalfleet division saw the Conservatives lose a seat to the Lib Dems (Andrew’s Previews 2022, page 532), while some defections mean that the ruling group is now some distance away from a majority. So this by-election could be rather important for the future direction of the council.
The Conservatives have represented the Isle of Wight in Parliament since 2001, with Conservative backbencher and Iraq veteran Bob Seely taking the seat over in 2017. For decades the Isle of Wight has been the UK’s largest parliamentary seat by headcount, with well over 110,000 electors on the roll in 2019; but this will change at the next general election when the island is split up into two constituencies. Wootton Bridge will be included within Isle of Wight East which will be the second-smallest parliamentary seat in England, just ahead of Isle of Wight West.
Defending the Wootton Bridge by-election for the Vectis Party is Linda Pitcher, who is Daryll’s mother; she is a Wootton Bridge parish councillor. The Conservatives have selected Ed Hopper, who has previous local government experience as a Reading councillor from 2012 to 2019; he lives in this division, and in 2021 he fought Binstead and Fishbourne division on the far side of the creek. Standing for the Green Party is Michael Smith, who volunteers for a number of organisations and events on the island. Completing the ballot paper is Sarah Redrup for the Lib Dems. The Isle of Wight County Press have interviewed all the candidates, and you can find out more here (link).
Parliamentary constituency: Isle of Wight
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): Isle of Wight East
ONS Travel to Work Area: Isle of Wight
Postcode district: PO33
Ed Hopper (C)
Linda Pitcher (Vectis Party)
Sarah Redrup (LD)
Michael Smith (Grn)
May 2021 result Vectis Party 533 C 358 Grn 152 Ind 83
May 2017 result C 429 UKIP 318 Ind 224 LD 95 Lab 65
May 2013 result UKIP 608 C 408 LD 100 Ind 98
June 2009 result C 866 LD 290
(Previous results for Wootton division)
May 2005 result C 1216 LD 635
June 2001 result C 933 LD 627 Lab 282
Previous results in detail
Bishopston and Ashley Down
Bristol council; caused by the resignation of Green Party councillor Lily Fitzgibbon.
We now transfer to the mainland for our big city by-election, which is in Bristol — although TV viewers of a certain age might be confused by that statement. We’ve come to Ashley Down, which is located a few miles to the north of Bristol city centre and is home to one campus of the further-education City of Bristol College. The buildings for this institution include Allen House, which until 2002 was the building which viewers of the BBC’s long-running drama series Casualty saw in outside shots of Holby City Hospital’s A&E department.
The City of Bristol College also has two older, Victorian buildings. These are Nos 4 and 5 of the original five New Orphan Houses, which were built as a massive orphanage between 1849 and 1870 by George Müller and operated for over a century. At any one time, the five New Orphan House buildings could accommodate over 2,000 children between them.
Next to the college site is one of the most prominent sports grounds in a city which is not particularly noted for high-level sport. This is the Bristol County Ground, which has been home since 1889 to Gloucestershire county cricket club. Bristol is not on the England men’s Test rota, but did host one women’s Test match in 2021 in which India successfully batted out for a draw after being forced to follow on by England. The England men’s cricket team often play a one-day game at the County Ground each season, although apparently not this year; the most recent men’s international in Bristol was a T20 match between South Africa and Ireland last August, with South Africa winning by 44 runs.
A mile or so to the north of here lies another of Bristol’s professional sports grounds. The Memorial Stadium was built in 1921 as a home for Bristol Rugby Club; in 1996 it embraced the round ball, with the Football League side Bristol Rovers moving in after they had played in Bath for ten years. The rugby team moved to Ashton Gate in 2014 leaving the football team to run the stadium; Bristol Rovers currently play in League One of the EFL. The Memorial Stadium has hosted one international match, a group-stage game in the 2013 Rugby League World Cup in which the USA beat the Cook Islands 32–20.
Also within this ward we have the municipal open space of Horfield Common, and the decidedly closed space of Horfield Prison. HMP Bristol, as it’s officially known, is a Category B prison which holds a large number of men who have been remanded in custody by the local courts while awaiting trial.
The presence of the jail doesn’t significantly skew the census return for Bishopston and Ashley Down ward. This is very much an urban professional part of Bristol, making the top 50 wards in England and Wales for those employed in professional occupations; over 60% of the workforce are educated to degree level. Bishopston and Ashley Down also makes the top 20 wards in England and Wales for those who profess no religion (62.9%) and the top 40 wards for households with precisely one car or van (52.4%), while only one ward in the south-west has a higher proportion of terraced housing.
In modern political conditions that demographic gives a very high vote for the Green Party, who won both seats in this ward at the last Bristol council elections in 2021 with a 53–27 lead over Labour. Following a by-election gain from the Lib Dems earlier this year the Greens became the largest group on Bristol city council with 25 out of 70 seats, including this vacancy.
However, Bristol is run under the elected mayoral system by Labour’s Marvin Rees and the second-placed Labour group of 24 councillors; the opposition parties don’t quite have the two-thirds majority needed to block Mayor Rees’ budget. Rees was re-elected for a second term as mayor in 2021, but his results since then have not been positive ones. A city-wide referendum in 2022 voted to remove the mayoral system once his term of office expires next year, and earlier this year Rees lost the Labour selection contest for the brand-new parliamentary seat of Bristol North East to Damian Egan. Egan is also an elected mayor, but quite some distance away: he is mayor of Lewisham in south-east London. There will be a general election before Egan’s term as mayor is up in 2026, and Bristol North East is projected to be a safe Labour seat under current political conditions; so it looks fairly likely that this column will be writing about a Lewisham mayoral by-election at some point fairly soon.
The current Labour MP for most of Bishopston and Ashley Down ward is a Shadow Cabinet member, the shadow Leader of the Commons Thangam Debbonaire who represents the Bristol West constituency. That seat has seen major population growth in this century, and for the next general election this ward will transfer to the Labour-held marginal seat of Bristol North West.
This by-election is to replace Lily Fitzgibbon, who was just 18 years old when she was elected in 2021 and is the city’s youngest councillor. Fitzgibbon, who had made a name for herself as a climate activist even before she left school, is leaving Bristol to be closer to her family.
Defending this by-election for the Green Party is James Crawford, who is described as a local campaigner. Labour have selected local resident Andrew Milton, who contested the neighbouring Redland ward in 2021. Also standing are Barry Cash for the Lib Dems, Roddy Jaques for the Conservatives and Amy Sage for the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition.
Parliamentary constituency: Bristol West (most), Bristol North West (part)
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): Bristol North West
ONS Travel to Work Area: Bristol
Postcode districts: BS6, BS7
Barry Cash (LD)
James Crawford (Grn)
Roddy Jaques (C)
Andrew Milton (Lab)
Amy Sage (TUSC)
May 2021 result Grn 2766/2395 Lab 1423/1382 LD 654/603 C 336/329
May 2016 result Lab 1833/1278 Grn 1755/1745 LD 937/905 C 423/343
Previous results in detail
St James’s
Dudley council, West Midlands; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Wayne Sullivan.
We finish for the week in the heart of the industrial Black Country. Welcome to the town centre of Dudley, a place whose Wikipedia entry makes for unusually grim reading. In 1851, with the Industrial Revolution in full swing, a Board of Health inspector’s report named Dudley as “the most unhealthy place in the country” with the town’s water and sewerage supply having failed to keep up with its population growth. This has been sorted out, but in today’s era we have a picture of a town centre which is clearly failing — partially the result of competition from the out-of-town Merry Hell shopping centre in nearly Brierley Hill.
Which is bad news for St James’s ward, because here we find Dudley town centre. This is a wedge-shaped ward, with the town centre at its eastern, pointed end; to the west is the Russells Hall estate which was mostly developed by the council in the 1950s and 1960s, as a replacement for slum housing nearer the town centre. The south-west corner of the ward is occupied by Russells Hall Hospital, the main NHS general hospital for Dudley borough.
At the start of this century St James’s ward of Dudley was a place where the Lib Dems were competitive. Indeed the winning candidate here in 2002 was Lorely Burt, who went on to serve as the Liberal Democrat MP for Solihull from 2005 to 2015 and now has a seat in the Lords. Burt’s departure for Solihull appears to mark the end of the Lib Dem era here, as although the party won all three seats in St James’s in 2004 (the first contest on the current boundaries) their vote fell away shortly afterwards.
This column was here for a by-election in February 2016 (Andrew’s Previews 2016, page 48) at which I described St James’s ward as “generally a tight Labour/UKIP marginal, although UKIP have only won the ward once (in 2008)”. I had missed that the UKIP councillor, (Peter) Malcolm Davies, had previously been a Lib Dem councillor for the ward; you don’t get many Lib Dem to UKIP defectors, but it takes all sorts to make a world.
The main challenge to Labour here passed to the Conservatives in 2018, and they broke through in 2021 and 2022 to take two of the ward’s three seats from Labour — on the second occasion by a margin of just seven votes, 1218 to 1211. Dudley Labour got their act together for the 2023 election, holding their final seat in St James’s by a 54–41 margin over the Conservatives.
Dudley council currently has a Conservative majority, with 43 seats plus this vacancy against 26 Labour councillors and (following a by-election gain last month) a Lib Dem. This looks like a large majority, but almost half of the Tory councillors were elected in 2021 which was a landslide year for the party; the 2022 and 2023 results here were much more level between the Conservatives and Labour. So we can expect a much closer council after the May 2024 Dudley elections, which will probably be all-up on new boundaries. The Local Government Boundary Commission are currently consulting on a new draft ward map which is very much a minimum-change effort; fifteen of Dudley’s 24 wards, including St James’s, provisionally have no changes proposed to their boundaries.
The Conservatives also represent this area in Parliament, with Conservative backbencher and former Mayor of Walsall Marco Longhi having gained Dudley North in the 2019 general election. This is one of the forty canonical “Red Wall” constituencies, but not for much longer; the Black Country comes off particularly badly from the forthcoming parliamentary boundary changes, and from the next general election the Dudley North constituency will be expanded in size and renamed as just “Dudley”.
This St James’s by-election follows the resignation of Conservative councillor Wayne Sullivan, who had finished third in the 2016 by-election but eventually got to the top of the results table in 2021. Defending for the party is local resident Rab Rana, who was runner-up in this ward in May. Labour will be hoping for a gain after their good result in May, and they have selected Caroline Reid who runs a local community hub. Also standing are Abdul Qadus for the Lib Dems, Christian Kiever for the Greens and independent candidate Richard Tasker, who has previously stood as a Conservative candidate for other Dudley wards on a number of occasions.
Parliamentary constituency: Dudley North
Parliamentary constituency (from next general election): Dudley
ONS Travel to Work Area: Dudley
Postcode districts: DY1, DY2, DY3
Christian Keiver (Grn)
Abdul Qadus (LD)
Rab Rana (C)
Christine Reid (Lab)
Richard Tasker (Ind)
May 2023 result Lab 1209 C 912 LD 124
May 2022 result C 1218 Lab 1211 LD 196
May 2021 result C 1471 Lab 1084 LD 179
May 2019 result Lab 1904 C 529 UKIP 388 Black Country Party 205 Grn 91 LD 86
May 2018 result Lab 1265 C 990 UKIP 244 LD 90
May 2016 result Lab 1053 UKIP 734 C 546 Grn 81 Ind 51
February 2016 by-election Lab 847 UKIP 554 C 427
May 2015 result Lab 2641 UKIP 1642 C 1398 Grn 186
May 2014 result Lab 1217 UKIP 1183 C 673 Grn 124
May 2012 result Lab 1321 UKIP 1132 C 396 Grn 109
May 2011 result Lab 1644 C 794 UKIP 554 LD 204
May 2010 result Lab 2030 C 1725 UKIP 1285 LD 853
May 2008 result UKIP 994 Lab 776 LD 631 C 625 BNP 311 Ind 142
May 2007 result Lab 1078 UKIP 814 LD 594 BNP 548 C 533
May 2006 result Lab 895 LD 844 BNP 743 C 586 UKIP 426
June 2004 result LD 1246/1234/1225 Lab 1051/956/838 C 849/796/749 Ind 323
Previous results in detail
If you enjoyed these previews, there are many more like them — going back to 2016 — in the Andrew’s Previews books, which are available to buy now (link). The 2022 edition is out now! You can also support future previews by donating to the Local Elections Archive Project (link).
Andrew Teale
