COVID-19 has been the focal point of international politics in 2020, and it is likely to remain that way for the rest of the year. Consequently, it is easy to forget about one of the other major developments, (which is still ongoing believe it or not) that dominated our headlines and discussions for the past few years. That is Brexit.
Whilst many of us may have gotten Brexit fatigue over the past couple of years, the issue continues to ramble on in the background. Talks and negotiations between the EU and the UK restarted during April.
With the heavily anticipated EU summit coming up at the end of June, these discussions are set to come to a head and don’t be surprised if Brexit begins to creep its way back into our headlines.
Where are we now?
Currently, the UK is in a transition period until the end of the year, from January 1st 2021, the new rules for the country’s exit will begin to take shape. Boris Johnson and key EU figures will be working together over the next few months with the hope of striking a trade agreement deal before the end of the year. Nevertheless, EU negotiators have admitted that there has been little “progress” since the beginning of March, given the current crisis however this is understandable.
The EU has told British officials that there must be an outline trade agreement by June 30th before they can enter discussions about a wider trade deal. This date may seem a bit ambitious on the UK’s side as their chief negotiator, David Frost, admitted that he was “beginning to think we might not make it by 30th June”. However, with the EU summit currently underway both sides will be hoping that they can get and agreement accelerated through
The EU has stated that it would allow the UK to request an extension which would also extend the transition period. Both parties agreed on setting the deadline for an extension to be six months in advance of the planned break in order to allow businesses to prepare for a no-deal scenario.
Despite this, both Frost and Boris Johnson have come out and made it clear that they will not go for this option. This may put the country in an uncompromising position come the end of the month.
New political actors
In the time since Brexit was the main story in British politics, the Labour party has appointed a new party leader in the form of Keir Starmer. He has already come out and stated that he feels the Brexit debate is over. He has also noted that he would not campaign to rejoin the EU at the next general election
Whilst Labour may not be pushing for the UK to rejoin the EU, the party has called for the Brexit transition period to be extended beyond December 2020 in order to prevent a no-deal scenario occurring.
The Liberal Democrats are still waiting to elect their new leader. They have suspended their election until 2021, by which time a trade agreement will likely have been agreed and if not, the transition period will have been extended. Therefore, the party may struggle to have a strong influence on the negotiations in Brussels.
Meanwhile, the SNP have retained their leader, Nicola Sturgeon, who has recently spoken out in and amongst the coronavirus crisis, against the prospect of a deal not being agreed. The First Minister said:
“If there is no extension request we are going to have to divert resources from that to thinking about and starting to prepare for the consequences again of a no-deal Brexit.”
What would a no-deal Brexit mean after this crisis?
If the UK is unable to strike a deal with the EU by the end of the year then it will leave without a proper trade agreement in place. With everything that is going on surrounding the coronavirus crisis, the ramifications of this could be seismic.
Leaving the EU without a trade agreement would see the UK fall back on the WTO (World Trade Organisation) terms. Consequently, there would be an introduction of tariffs on goods and border checks. This causes more logistical and economic complications which in turn will affect the UK’s productivity.
The loss of trade opportunities from a no-deal scenario will inevitably lead to a reduction in output from Britain. However, this is something which the UK is already going through at the moment due to the coronavirus outbreak, so a no-deal outcome on top of that threatens to severely damage the UK’s productivity.
“The economic catastrophe of Covid-19 may make it difficult for voters to determine whether job losses have been caused by nation-state ideology or the virus” — Andrew Marr
The coronavirus crisis has already illustrated the fragility of global supply chains, however, the introduction of new EU trade barriers after a no-deal Brexit is likely to disrupt the supply chains further, especially for food and drink, as well as raising the prices for these commodities.
The UK is destined for one of its largest recessions in history after this pandemic. There is a high chance that the UK will be battling high unemployment and repairing damaged businesses by the end of the year. A no-deal Brexit will likely to send some serious shockwaves through the British economy were it to coincide with this, something which may take years to recover from.
With COVID-19 still dominating both domestic and international politics, Brexit has taken a back seat. However, the upcoming EU summit will potentially have a huge effect on what kind of deal the
What still remains clear is that, much like COVID-19, the ramifications of this summit could go on for years to come. Either way, Brexit will still be shaping our headlines far beyond 2020.
