Consider the Opposite
Thinking backwards to move forward.
Considering the opposite of what you want to achieve may be a surprisingly effective strategy for solving problems. Instead of aiming for the finish line, “inversion thinking” involves identifying potential detours by considering the opposite of your goal — a filter that helps you avoid obvious mistakes. Simply put, think of what could make you fail and then take steps to avoid those roadblocks.
“Invert, always invert. Turn a situation or problem upside down. Look at it backward. What happens if all our plans go wrong? Where don’t we want to go, and how do you get there? Instead of looking for success, make a list of how to fail instead. Tell me where I’m going to die, that is, so I don’t go there.”
– Charlie Munger
Although popularized by investor Charlie Munger, inversion thinking or “subtractive avoidance” dates back to the early 1800s. German mathematician Carl Gustav Jacobi advocated tackling complex problems following a strategy of man muss immer umkehren, loosely translated, “invert, always invert.”
Thinking Backward
Say you want to improve innovation in your organization. Thinking forward, you’d think about all of the things you could do to foster innovation. If you look at the problem by inversion, however, you’d think about all the things you could do that would discourage innovation.
The “Failure Premortem” involves imagining a project failing and pinpointing potential causes to prevent them. For better productivity, consider “How can I get less focused?” to identify and eliminate distractions. Decluttering can be tackled using Marie Kondo’s method: keep what “sparks joy” instead of discarding things.
Similarly, inversion thinking equips investors to go beyond a surface-level assessment of a company’s strengths and compels a critical examination of potential drawbacks that could make an investment unfavorable. Red flags like a declining industry, a burdensome debt load, or an ineffective leadership team can be signs of a “value trap” — a seemingly good deal that masks major problems.
Tech titan Jeff Bezos flipped the script on traditional retail by building an online marketplace instead of brick-and-mortar stores (a classic inversion tactic). Similarly, Elon Musk doesn’t shy away from the negative possibilities. He embraces a “worst-case first”, then refines plans to address those anticipated hurdles.
Backward thinking may feel counterintuitive at first, but by considering the opposite of your goal or the potential obstacles to success, you can uncover hidden assumptions, identify weaknesses in your plan, and ultimately make better decisions — thinking backward to move forward.
References
fs.blog/inversion
Inversion is different than working backward or “beginning with the end in mind.” Those strategies keep the same goal and approach it from a different direction. Meanwhile, inversion asks you to consider the opposite of your desired result.
A variety of math textbooks claim that “invert, always invert” was one of Jacobi’s favorite phrases. The oldest source I could find was the Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Volume 23. 1917.
USC Law Commencement Speech by Charlie Munger. May 2007.
