This is why Twitter isn’t doomed
Why Twitter has a bright future, and what’s in store for you.
Twitter recently unveiled their new profile pages for users. Despite receiving mixed reviews, I’ve been happy with the changes. If you’ve been paying attention to the news, you’ve probably seen several articles about changes that Twitter is implementing or may be implementing in the future. But what direction is Twitter going in?
No, Twitter does not have a growth problem
In what could be called a rite of passage for any large tech startup, Twitter received eulogies from The Atlantic and other major tech sites (this isn’t the first time it has happened), and has already disappointed Wall Street.
Normally, this doubt in Twitter would have a minimal effect on the service. This is by no means the first time Twitter has been deemed as “doomed” or having tough times. But this time, Twitter has investors to keep track of and keep happy. Whether or not Twitter has a growth problem is certainly debatable, but in order to perform successfully in the stock market, Twitter will have to convince Wall Street that they are not doomed to die a slow death.
All Things Digital wrote an article about Twitter’s so-called growth problem, comparing Twitter’s projected 30% growth rate to Facebook’s.
That’s [30% per year] not a bad pace by many standards. Facebook, for instance, grew its active user base by 33 percent in the 12 months leading up to its IPO in 2012. But Facebook was and is a much bigger company — it had 900 million users when it went public, and more than a billion today — and that size was a big selling point.
While the writers Peter Kafka and Mike Isaac make an interesting point, the problem here is that Twitter is being compared to Facebook, as is noted by Will Oremus. When I think of Facebook, I think of seeing what my friends have been up to recently (as in the past few days) and seeing a few pictures. When I think of Twitter, on the other hand, I think of a superb discovery engine for news, journalism, and my interests. This is why I love Twitter so much more than Facebook.
Twitter is simply less “social” than Facebook. Twitter allows for well-known figures to send information to their dedicated fans. I only follow my favorite bands on Twitter, for instance, because I want to know what they are doing right now. I could wait for someone else to tell me, but I’d rather have the information quicker.
That means that tweets aren’t just for the X followers of an account. A tweet has incredible potential to reach outside of Twitter, something that Facebook lacks. Twitter’s reach extends far beyond Twitter.com and the Twitter app. I’ve seen embedded tweets everywhere. I’ve never actually seen the most retweeted photo (Ellen’s star studded selfie) on Twitter inside of the Twitter website. I saw it posted elsewhere first.
The elite accounts with 10,000+ followers on Twitter are counted equally with the smaller accounts with 18 followers and zero tweets when it comes to metrics like monthly active users. This is simply unfair for Twitter, but works well for Facebook because most Facebook accounts are roughly the same when it comes to friends. Twitter’s extremely popular accounts add much more value to the network than the accounts that don’t post anything, yet they are essentially being treated as equals. This is why we can’t simply look at monthly active users to gauge Twitter’s popularity.
Let’s also remember just how important Twitter is to the journalism industry. Almost every digital publisher is using Twitter to promote their content, and many have been successful with this approach because of the amount of people that see Twitter as a news source. Where the journalists and new corporations go, the people will go.
Twitter’s Private Mode
Between calls for Twitter to make its own messaging app to building a case for Twitter to have a standalone DM app, there is almost no doubt that Twitter will make some sort of private conversation feature of some sort. The question is how exactly this would work out.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Twitter CEO Dick Costolo said:
There are frequently public conversations that you would like to grab hold of and take into whisper mode with a friend and say, hey, this thing has happened. Look what these people are talking about. What do you think about this, with a friend or more than one friend. So being able to move fluidly between that public conversation and the private conversation is something we’ll make simpler.
He referred to this idea as a “whisper mode”. Of course, there’s no guarantee that Twitter will unveil a product with this sort of functionality. I’d say that there’s a large chance simply due to the fact that it has been discussed by the CEO of Twitter in a public interview.
To be honest, I’m not entirely excited about this “whisper mode”. I agree with Selena Larson here, I think that the current DM system could use some work and that a standalone messaging app would be great.
I don’t see a good application for a whisper mode. Previously, when people do want to “discuss” conversations, we’ve been able to screenshot or link to a tweet and share it publicly. Maybe there is a market for more private sharing of conversations, but if there is one, I’m not a part of it yet.
But the problem here, as I stated earlier, is that Twitter isn’t so much a “social” app like Facebook, it works better as a way for large public figures to connect with their audience. Twitter is a much more “public” website than Facebook. Facebook’s model revolves more around private sharing with a small group of friends instead of the whole world.
However, Twitter isn’t just for public figures and a silent audience: it’s also for people like me. Individuals with a modest following (think less than 5k) who are trying to connect with new people. A standalone DM app would be perfect for this use. I’d love to be able to chat with people that already follow me. Even though I already can do this using the Twitter DM feature, having a standalone app would be a nice improvement.
Topic Discovery and Adding to the Conversation
According to a Re/code article, Twitter is also trying to get people involved in the conversation by sending notifications when your friends are talking about a certain topic. In one example, there was a notificationI see this type of notification feature expanding far beyond TV shows as Twitter tries to get more users into the conversation.
But what use is it if this experiment does get Twitter more conversation? I think that it will allow for current users to engage with new users, and to get current users to come back to the app over and over again.
If Twitter can pull these notifications off, this would allow for Twitter to convert “casual” users into users that rely on Twitter for conversation with friends, potentially pulling in other friends that haven’t signed up for the network.
In fact, this brings us back to the idea of adding a real messaging feature to Twitter. Could these topic notifications allow for Twitter to make a synthesis of public discussion and private messaging? Twitter may be on to something here if they are aiming to produce conversation between current users.
Like many have already noted, if you look at Twitter from a macro perspective, it is a way for well-known figures to post thoughts, updates, and promotions to their fans and followers. There are many Twitter accounts that are active and logged into that tweet very little or not at all. Twitter’s notification experiment could allow for these quiet accounts to engage in coversation and enrich the entire ecosystem.
Twitter and Soundcloud
You may remember #TwitterMusic, a standalone app that Twitter launched in 2013. Nobody really used it after just a week after its launch, and nobody was surprised when the service shut down in March.
Twitter’s main rationality behind trying their hand at music was to expand their influence by entering the realm of music discovery services like Last.fm and Pandora, and to promote the main Twitter engine itself.
Clearly, Twitter’s music app was a failure, but according to Re/code, Twitter is considering a deal to buy Soundcloud, which has previously been valued at $700 million. This acquisition would not only give Twitter access to an established music service, it could also help Twitter’s supposed growth problem.
Soundcloud reported in October of 2013 that they had about 250 million users. This metric means that Twitter will have the chance to further expand their native ad network to audio streams and around the Soundcloud interface.
Convincing Users to Sign Up
If you look at everything Twitter is doing, you can see that the main goal for Twitter isn’t spreading its name out there. Everyone has heard of Twitter. The main goal for Twitter is convincing people that there is real value in Twitter and that they should sign up. As someone who knew about Twitter for a while (and thought it was stupid), this process can take a while.
Right now, Twitter makes it money off of people that use the official Twitter app or Twitter.com while signed in. And as Dick Costolo mentioned in the Bloomberg interview, Twitter is focusing on turning the global awareness of Twitter into real active users.
There have been some reports that Twitter is trying to monetize tweets found outside of Twitter.com, a move that would help Twitter make money off of users that have yet to sign up. But for Twitter, a signed in user viewing a tweet in a timeline is much more valuable than one viewing a tweet on a 3rd party website.
A Bright Future
I continue to be a firm believer in Twitter. With over $2 billion in the bank, Twitter has enough money to do just about anything they want. With an excellent team behind an excellent concept, I think Twitter will continue to expand and become more significant in our culture and day to day life.
Speaking of Twitter, you can follow me @SomewhatJustin.
