5 Republicans Who May (or May Not) Survive Donald Trump
With Trump’s electoral prospects fading, the Republican civil war has spilled out into the open.
In the last week, at least nine Senators, 18 Representatives, and four governors withdrew endorsements, while other Republicans openly worried about down-ballot losses. Trump’s supporters are circling the wagons, defending their candidate and attacking Republicans that stray.
The fallout could be severe.
Here’s a guide to which Republican leaders might survive Hurricane Donald, and which will be looking for media gigs, or spending more time with their family.
Paul Ryan
The eye of Ryan’s needle keeps getting smaller. But Paul keeps trying to thread it.
As the most prominent elected Republican, Ryan faced a lot of pressure to pick a side. But he steadfastly refused, endorsing Trump while still offering criticism.
Now he says he’s “no longer going to defend” his party’s nominee, and plans to focus on protecting the GOP House majority. But he hasn’t withdrawn his endorsement.
If (when) Trump loses, Trump supporters will accuse vocally anti-Trump Republicans of handing the White House to Hillary, while the anti-Trump faction will insist that anyone other than Trump would have won easily.
Meanwhile, Republicans everywhere will look to the House to resist Clinton’s agenda. If Ryan can hang on for a few more weeks, he’ll probably skate through.
Survival prospects: high
Mitch McConnell
Unlike his House counterpart, McConnell avoided the spotlight. He’s trying to thread a similar needle, officially endorsing Trump but putting in little effort to support him.
If Republicans lose the Senate, he might take some heat for crafting the blanket opposition strategy they deployed against Obama. But McConnell’s adaptable, and kept his head down.
Survival prospects: decent
Ted Cruz
Unlike Ryan, who played both sides and backed away right as most Republicans started accepting that they’re going to lose the presidential race, Ted Cruz royally screwed this one up.
Cruz thought Trump would lose badly and refused to endorse him at the convention. Sure, Trump supporters were angry, and the convention booed him, but Cruz calculated that “I told you so” would set him up for 2020. And he could always fall back on the excuse that Trump insulted his wife and father.
But then Trump started rising in the polls. He was executing Kellyanne Conway’s “act normal” strategy, winning over some wavering Republicans. Hillary fainted at the 9/11 memorial and subsequently admitted pneumonia, reminding everyone of her lack of transparency.
All of sudden “I told you so” wasn’t looking like a good strategy. Cruz endorsed his party’s nominee, hoping to escape turncoat accusations in the event of a Trump win or narrow loss.
Now, with two debates and “grab them by the pussy” in the books, Trump’s prospects look even dimmer.
Cruz is like a terrible stock trader, selling low and buying high. But he can’t unendorse now, or he’ll look even worse.
He must be so annoyed. Cruz carefully cultivated an anti-establishment reputation, alienating his colleagues but pleasing the Republican base. In the Republican primary, a divided field allowed an anti-establishment candidate to win the nomination without getting a majority of votes. Cruz’s plan worked, but for someone else.
He even had a clever strategy against Trump. By playing nice, Cruz ensured that Trump would train his fire on the other candidates. Meanwhile, if Trump imploded, Cruz was in the best position to grab his supporters. And if Trump succeeded, Cruz would be the only non-Trump candidate left, prompting the establishment to get over their dislike and rally around him.
That worked too, just not well enough.
Over the last year, Ted Cruz praised, pledged to support, attacked, tried to undermine, refused to endorse, and then endorsed Donald Trump.
He’s up for reelection in 2018, and has enough support in Texas to continue annoying everyone for years to come. But his national profile took a big hit.
Survival prospects: mediocre
Mike Pence
He took the job no one (besides Chris Christie) wanted, hoping to become VP or set himself up for a future presidential run.
Pence’s debate performance won praise from establishment Republicans, which, combined with his unconditional Trump support, could make him the one to unite the factions.
However, when the dust clears, Pence will retain some loyal soldier points, but he’ll have difficulty scrubbing off the Trump taint.
Without much chance of reelection in Indiana, and a national electorate increasingly disdainful of homophobia, he’s in trouble.
Survival prospects: poor
Reince Preibus
The RNC chair couldn’t stop Trump from getting the nomination, backed Trump and threatened those who wouldn’t, and oversaw an electoral disaster. He’s done.
Survival prospects: dismal
