NFL Week 1 Spread Locks
Praise the Lord football is back. No knock on baseball, but life is much better with football. The weeks feel shorter. The weekends feel longer. Sunday becomes a religious day for sports fans and especially gambling fans.
Week 1 is more of an acclimation week than anything else. You can get an idea of what teams are capable of from last season, but its important to remember each season is its own. Let’s take a look at the opening slate of games for the 2016 season.
Home teams are in CAPS
Panthers (-3) over BRONCOS
What a difference seven months make. The Super Bowl 50 rematch will feature a lot of familiar faces, mostly on the defensive side of the ball. These are two of the top five defenses in the league highlighted by Von Miller and Luke Kuechly. On offense is where the new cast of characters come in. Peyton Manning is gone and while he was a shell of himself (to say the least) last season he is certainly better than Trevor Siemian.
The seventh round draft pick from the 2015 Draft won beat out Mark Sanchez for the starting job and is now tasked with managing the Broncos attack. Expect Gary Kubiak to call a lot of run plays and safe passes against a top five defense like the Panthers. Speaking of the Panthers their offense will look slightly different than it did back in February.
Top receiver Kelvin Benjamin is back after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. He may be held in check by the stout Broncos secondary, but the attention paid to him should open up the field for Cam Newton to hit Greg Olsen, Devin Funchess and others. Week 1 is usually sloppy and defenses usually reign supreme early so when picking this game there was only one thing to look at — Cam Newton or Trevor Siemian. I’ll take my chances with the reigning MVP.
Prediction: Panthers 20, Broncos 9
Packers (-5.5) over JAGUARS
Last season the Packers were not the Packers we are used to. Jordy Nelson’s injury had a bigger impact than most thought and a slew of other injuries forced Aaron Rodgers to make the world’s greatest lemonade with some bottom of the barrel lemons. Eddie Lacy is lost weight this offseason so there’s that. The main point I’m getting at is that the Packers are back.
The Jaguars are looking to break their never ending cycle of picking in the top ten of the draft. They made strides last season — mainly with their offense — but are still looking to turn the corner to relevance. Blake Bortles is being pegged for a big year in large part to rising star receiver Allen Robinson and Chris Ivory should be a welcome addition to the backfield. Offense wasn’t the problem for the Jags last season. Their defense was borderline invisible last season, but an infusion of Dante Fowler Jr. (first round choice from last season) and Jalen Ramsey (first round choice this season) should help turn the tide.
Will the youth infusion on defense help the Jags secure a huge home win in Week 1? Doubtful. Expect Aaron Rodgers to empty the chamber and look for Jordy and Cobb early and often. If skinny Lacy shows up for Week 1 (something he hasn’t done in three years) then this might get ugly.
Prediction: Packers 38, Jaguars 31
TEXANS (-6.5) over Bears
On paper the Texans are one of the top teams. With a roster that sports names like DeAndre Hopkins, J.J. Watt, Jonathan Joseph, the only thing holding this team back last season was their quarterback. Brian Hoyer was more bum than quarterback and unfortunately for the Texans he was a bum when they needed him to be a quarterback. New signee Brock Osweiler should change that. The 6’7 Osweilier can bomb the ball like it was a Nerf and above all he’s a legitimate quarterback. Flanked by Hopkins and Lamar Miller — another top offseason addition — the Texans offense should have no trouble spotting their defense with points.
Things are not looking as bright in Chicago. Jay Cutler is still the Bears quarterback. Jeremy Langford is now the bell cow in the aftermath of Matt Forte leaving. Their offensive line is still suspect. But at least Kevin White — top ten pick from last year’s draft — is healthy and ready to take attention off Alshon Jefferey. So what can you expect from the Bears this season? Rebuilding or as its called in the non-sports world, losing.
The way this game should go is a lot of Lamar Miller with some bombs to Hopkins. Watt will be seeing a lot of Cutler and John Fox might be packing his bags before the end of the third quarter. On the bright side Langford, Jeffery, and White can rack up some garbage time fantasy points for your team.
Prediction: Bears 17, Texans 28
Bills (+3) over RAVENS
If there is one game you hope RedZone never goes to its this game. The Ravens are a clueless mess and the Bills have turned into the Bad News Bills. Justin Forsett was released then re-signed leaving their backfield a crowded mess. Team leaders Joe Flacco, Terrell Suggs, and Steve Smith are back from injury, that’s the good news. The bad news is they will definitely carry some rust.
The Bills are in a similar position only their guys are not suiting up. Defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is out the first four games on a substance abuse violation. Top draft picks Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland are on the shelf with injuries. Despite being a defensive guy to the core Rex Ryan will have to rely on his offense to win games this season and that’s a good thing. Tyrod Taylor was a surprise player last year, but with a whole year under his belt he should be in full control of the offense. LeSean McCoy looks like LeSean McCoy again and Sammy Watkins is the playmaker that never gets enough opportunities.
One of the few constants of last season was that the Ravens home games almost always end in a late field goal. I expect an ugly first 45 minutes followed by an unpredictable fourth quarter where one team will nail a late field goal for the win. History has shown as that team has been the Ravens.
Prediction: Bills 17, Ravens 16
Browns (+4) over EAGLES
Prior to Sam Bradford being dealt this game looked like an easy Eagles win. Last season the defense carried the load while the offense continually dragged them down. There was no single player responsible for the offensive ineptitude, but more a sum of parts issue. DeMarco Murray never fit Chip Kelly’s offense and it showed right away. The Doug Pederson Era will begin with a little more cohesion, but like the final hours of the Kelly Era there will be rough patches.
Second overall pick Carson Went is set to start Week 1 which tilts the odds in favor of the Browns. It’s pretty ironic given it was the Browns who traded with the Eagles that netted them Wentz can now return the favor in the form of a win. Not only has Wentz not played much in the preseason thanks to an injured rib, but he was a projected third stringer heading into the season. Ryan Mathews should be featured early and often which is rarely followed by a win.
New Browns head coach Hue Jackson will try to turn the turd tide that has plagued the Browns since they returned to the NFL in 1999. He is also trying to reclaim Robert Griffin III to relevance. If that is not the workload of a miracle worker I don’t know what is. Without Josh Gordon — who looked like good ole’ Flash Gordon in the preseason — for the first four games RG3 will have to utilize his speedy weapons Duke Johnson and rookie wideout Corey Coleman to outrun the Eagles.
This will either be a sneaky good game or an unwatchable shitshow with no in between. Thus far 2016 has been great to Cleveland so I’m rolling with RG3 and the Browns to win their first Week 1 game since computers were invented.
Prediction: Browns 23, Eagles 16
Buccaneers (+3) over FALCONS
Why did the Bucs do Lovie Smith like that? Sure 6–10 isn’t getting any asses in the seats, but it’s impossible to turn a franchise around in two seasons. Dirk Koetter will now receive all the praise when the Bucs improve their record for a second straight season a la Rex Ryan with the Jets in 2009 (thanks again Mangini!).
Of the Bucs six wins last season two of came against the Falcons. With an improved Jameis Winston and rejuvenated Doug Martin the Bucs can make some noise in the NFC South. With another year for Winston and Mike Evans to develop the offense should run smoothly enough to hold off Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman.
On paper the Falcons are the second best team in the division. Julio is one of the best receivers in the game and Freeman is coming off a monster season at running back. The only thing holding the Falcons back from the playoffs is Matt Ryan. To say Ryan was pathetic last season would be disrespectful to the word. He has given people a new reason to call him Matty Ice and not for a good reason. If Ryan can locate his talent in time for Sunday the Falcons should win. Are you willing to bet on that? I’m not.
Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Falcons 17
Vikings (-2) over TITANS
In a perfect world this game does not pop up on my television at all. The Sam Bradford-led Vikings is like watching an episode of Fresh Prince of Bel-Air with the other Aunt Vivian. The Teddy Bridgewater Vikings are just better to watch. Bradford figures to work on an abbreviated playbook that features two plays — get Adrian Peterson the ball and fake giving Adrian Peterson the ball.
The rebuilding is far from over in Nashville and it will continue well into this season and beyond. Marcus Mariota and Derrick Henry is a solid start for the future, but in the present that’s not enough to win. Delanie Walker will have a solid game as he desperately auditions to get the hell out of Tennessee and DeMarco Murray is looking to reestablish himself as a top running back. That very well can happen — just not on Sunday.
Prediction: Vikings 20, Titans 10
JETS (+2.5) over Bengals
The Jets were on their way to the playoffs in Todd Bowles inaugural season as head coach. Then Ryan Fitzpatrick morphed back into Ryan Fitzpatrick and threw three backbreaking interceptions in a must win game. The team is hoping Fitzpatrick can replicate the best season he and any quarterback in Jets history had last season (31 TDs to 15 INTs). Holding out for most of the offseason is not exactly the best way to prepare. Having Matt Forte behind you with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker flanking you? Now I like those odds.
Another team that ended their season with a bitter taste in their mouth are the Bengals. Losing to rival Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round had to sting given their stellar 12–4 regular season. A majority of the nucleus from that AFC North champs is back this season, but the team will be without tight end Tyler Eifert. This wouldn’t be such a big deal if attacking the middle of the field against the Jets was on of their only weaknesses.
If Darrelle Revis can contain A.J. Green then Andy Dalton will have to look for rookie Tyler Boyd and Brandon LaFell who may or may not have remembered how to catch a football. The Jets defense is not the beast it once was, but with playmakers like Mo Wilkerson and Leonard Williams — Sheldon Richardson is out serving a one game for suspension — up front and Revis in support its hard not to like the Jets to cover at home.
Prediction: Bengals 20, Jets 23
SAINTS (-1) over Raiders
Call me crazy, but I have the Raiders winning the AFC West this season. They have everything I love in a good football team. A superstar (Khalil Mack), a rising star (Amari Cooper) and a solid supporting cast with a good head coach at the helm. In Jack Del Rio’s first season as head coach of his former team he was able to improve their record from 4–12 in 2014 to 7–9 in 2015. For 2016 Del Rio should have faith in his guys to give the Raiders their first winning season since 2002.
Having said that I still like the Saints in this game for one reason. It’s in New Orleans. For reasons unknown to man Drew Brees and the Saints play considerably better at the Superdome. Brees threw 14 more touchdown passes than he did on the road and sports a QBR nearly 25 points higher. Throw in the fact that its a west coast team playing at 1pm and the odds are really stacked against the Raiders. It will be one of the better games in the early slate and should be one of the closest.
Prediction: Raiders 27, Saints 31
Chargers (+7) over CHIEFS
A classic “take the points” game. The Chargers are the inferior team, but the Chiefs are far from fully healthy. Not only are the Chiefs going into this game without their best player on defense (Justin Houston), they will also be without the heart of their offense, Jamaal Charles. Andy Reid dropped a bomb on Charles’s fantasy owners with news that the star running back was taking longer to return from his ACL tear.
If there is any team that can sympathize with injuries its the Chargers. It’s almost clockwork how Philip Rivers’s weapons disappear as the season goes on. Last year’s nightmare season had a lot more to do with injury luck than it did with talent. Rivers gets back his top option Keenan Allen, his safety valve Danny Woodhead and old reliable Antonio Gates at his disposal Sunday and you can bet he won’t let that go to waste.
The Chiefs will look to jump on the Chargers early with the passing game. Alex Smith is still healthy as is Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin. That should be enough to grab a lead for Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West to grind out.
Prediction: Chargers 17, Chiefs 23
Dolphins (+10.5) over SEAHAWKS
Predicting a Seahawks blowout is enticing after witnessing the tear that Russell Wilson went on to end the season. In the final seven games of the season Wilson threw 24 touchdowns and only one interception as the Seahawks won six of seven to make the playoffs. What made that stretch more important is that it was a dress rehearsal for life without Marshawn Lynch. Beast Mode was injured during that late surge and the offense seemed to be fine with Thomas Rawls manning the backfield.
On the opposite side of the spectrum are the Dolphins. Going through yet another rebuild the Adam Gase Era figures to start with a loud dud. The essential trade of Lamar Miller for Arian Foster (both signed as free agents) is a loss and any time Ryan Tannehill is your quarterback the odds are against you.
If this were a first half spread it’d be Seahawks all the way. But I have too much respect for Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker to say that cannot cover a double digit spread in Week 1. Some garbage touchdowns should do the job here, but with Tannehill who knows anymore.
Prediction: Dolphins 17, Seahawks 27
COLTS (-3.5) over Lions
Last season was one from hell in Indianapolis. I don’t know if it was karma for snitching on Tom Brady or just bad luck, but the Colts couldn’t do anything right. Andrew Luck barely played and when he did he was a mess. Chuck Pagano was fired then unfired after a disappointing 8–8 season. The best way to get over that is winning Week 1 and winning big. Luck is back and $140 million richer. That alone should be a reason for T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief to be hyped after going through most of last season with the corpse of Matt Hasselbeck.
Things were not much better for the Lions last season and unfortunately for them they don’t have much to look forward to this season. Calvin Johnson became the second Lions superstar to retire at 30 years old leaving Golden Tate as the top gun. Matthew Stafford now has no one to save him from bad throws so he better be accurate.
This should be a high scoring affair and a relatively easy Colts win. They are the better team at home versus a team that is looking to replace one of the best players of our generation. Can Jim Caldwell will his underdogs to beat his former employer? Sadly you have to show emotion to inspire and emotion is not one of Caldwell’s strengths.
Prediction: Lions 21, Colts 28
COWBOYS (Even) over Giants
Whenever the Giants and Cowboys throw down its always a spectacle. Last season they split the season series, but if it weren’t for an Eli Manning mental mistake late in the opening game of the season (inexplicably stopping clock and giving Cowboys chance to win game) the Giants would have taken both games. With all the attention directed at Odell Beckham Manning will have to rely on Victor Cruz (yes, he’s actually playing) and rookie Sterling Shepard to have strong performances.
This matchup will not feature Tony Romo who is out with a broken bone in his back, but rookie Dak Prescott seems to be up to the task. Working behind the best offensive line in the game Prescott will be handing off to fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott and looking for Dez Bryant off play action. The Giants defense is revamped with a ton of splashy signings along the defensive line (Damon Harrison and Olivier Vernon) and this game will be the perfect litmus test.
In their last ten meeting only twice has one of these two won by more than seven points. The Cowboys figure to ground and pound the ball while the Giants look to attack the Cowboys’ secondary. Styles make fights and this figures to be another slugfest.
Prediction: Cowboys 24, Giants 23
CARDINALS (-6) over Patriots
Congratulations Roger Goodell. You have now successfully proved that your league is a dictatorship and no one can tell you otherwise. Tom Brady’s four game suspension is bullshit and coming from a Jets fan that should resonate that much more. Still the Patriots will head into a hectic environment without the best quarterback of all-time.
Instead Bill Belichick hands the keys over to Jimmy Garoppolo. The third year man has looked more than serviceable in the preseason, throwing for 400 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers. If he can replicate that stat line the first four weeks the Pats should split the first four at the very least. With Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett, and Julian Edelman at his disposal Garoppolo has all the tools for an abbreviated 2011 Matt Cassel run.
Assuming the Pats don’t run the table there has to be a team that beats them and there is no better option than the Cardinals. Carson Palmer may have looked like a washed up version of a washed up Carson Palmer in the NFC title game. Palmer’s best days may officially be gone. Lucky for him and head coach Bruce Arians can mask any decline in play with David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and a stellar defense.
The Cardinals defense is elite enough to carry this team and definitely elite enough to shut down a backup quarterback. Tyron Mathieu is back from injury to man the middle of the field and Patrick Peterson will look to eliminate Edelman and anyone else lined up across from him.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Cardinals 27
REDSKINS (+3) over Steelers
If there was one thing I learned last season from betting is was that the Redskins protect their house. They will never be confused for the Patriots, but for whatever reason Jay Gruden’s squad plays better at home.
Ben Roethlisberger will be without Le’Veon Bell, but he will have Antonio Brown so that’s all matters. DeAngelo Williams is good enough to get the Steelers through the first three games, but what happens when Big Ben needs a big play and can’t go to Brown or Williams? Markus Wheaton? Eli Rogers? Sammy Coates? Those are not names Steelers fans should rely on especially on the road early in the season.
The Redskins will have their whole squad with them on Monday night. Kirk Cousins was money towards the end of last season leading the Redskins to the NFC East crown. Cousins’s favorite weapon during that late season surge was tight end Jordan Reed. Against a soft Steelers secondary Reed should figure to dominate the middle and DeSean Jackson is always someone who can break the top off a defense. Both teams are solid, but a full Redskins squad should eke out one against an undermanned Steelers team.
Prediction: Steelers 16, Redskins 20
Rams (-2.5) over 49ERS
Thank God this game comes on after 10pm on the east coast. Number one overall pick Jared Goff has looked suspect in the infant stages of his career and is inactive for the game. That leaves Case Keenum as the man in charge. Yikes.
The good news for LA fans whose stomachs are already churning at the sight of bad quarterback play is that Keenum just has to exist in the three seconds between the snap and handing the ball off to Todd Gurley.
It won’t take much to knock off the worst team in the NFL, the 49ers. Blaine Gabbert somehow beat out Colin Kaepernick for the starting job. Outside of Carlos Hyde there is no real threat on their offense. On defense there is Navarro Bowman and not much else. This game will be the meaning of a rock fight with it coming down to Gurley versus Hyde. I think we all know who to take in that scenario.
Prediction: Rams 17, 49ers 7
Last season: 121–97
