NFL Week 2 Spread Locks
Last week was…it was rough. My gambling weekend went a lot like CM Punk’s UFC debut:
Okay maybe not that bad, but still 6–10 is a reason coaches get fired in the NFL (shout out Lovie Smith!). Week 1 was stacked with great games, but the spreads had to pay the price.
The Browns and Colts took a dump on everyone’s faith in them. Jimmy Garoppolo fit seamlessly into Bill Belichick’s mastermind machine causing Jets fans to feel even more nauseous than watching Nick Folk shank a game altering PAT. Case Keenum gave all of us renewed hope that anything is possible if he can start a NFL game. And one more thing — Jeff Fisher is not a good coach. It’s so fucking obvious yet no one refuses to believe it.
Let’s move forward to this week’s slate of games before I start breaking things again. Home teams are in CAPS.
Jets (Even) over BILLS
Seriously though, what the Folk? Every Jets fan knew that Nick Folk would finally come apart, but on a PAT? Really? The bright side is they covered and the New York Sack Exchange is back (7 sacks in Week 1!). The down side? A.J. Green destroyed Revis Island like a tsunami to the tune of 180 yards on 12 catches and a touchdown. Apparently Darrelle Revis is out of shape so that should cure that. All in all the Jets offense and front end of the defense looked good.
The Bills had few bright spots in their loss to the Ravens. Tyrod Taylor and the Bills offense put up a big dud. The lone bright spot — and by bright spot I mean that little flicker of light — was LeSean McCoy who is probably looking for the nearest exit at the moment. Sammy Watkins is still fighting off a foot injury and is in danger of being shut down.
Having said all that, what can we expect on Thursday night? Bad football, missed field goal kicks, and a lot of stupid Rex Ryan decisions. This game will be ugly — like James Harden shoe ugly — and probably come down to a stop. Watkins won’t do what Green did to them last week and Taylor might get some scramble yards, but barring another ‘Folk Up’ the Jets should finally beat Rex Ryan and send him one step closer to the WWE.
Prediction: Jets 20, Bills 16
STEELERS (-3.5) over Bengals
Antonio Brown and the Steelers wasted no time making me look like a fool. I went against one of the best teams in the league and got what I deserved. My hope is they can forgive me and continue their momentum this week versus their hated (and I mean hated) rival the Bengals. Even without Le’Veon Bell the Steelers offense was on the express lane to the end zone all night.
The Bengals had no business winning last Sunday. The offensive line took the day off and poor Andy Dalton got destroyed. The Steelers don’t possess the beasts up front like the Jets, but they are great at pressuring the quarterback. Expect a lot more from Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard as well as the ultra-reliable A.J. Green.
This will be one of, if not the, game of the day. These two left off with a nasty Wild Card game that featured helmet-shattering hits. Vontaze Burfict will miss this one — serving three game suspension for his helmet-to-helmet hit on Brown during that Wild Card game — so the drama will be dialed down just a bit.
Prediction: Bengals 23, Steelers 31
Titans (+5.5) vs. LIONS
Before we go any further let’s give Matt Stafford his due. Life after Megatron proved to be much easier for Stafford as he spread the wealth in a great Week 1 outing. Theo Riddick looks to be the Danny Woodhead to Stafford’s Philip Rivers, making an impact in the receiving and rushing game. The one whole in their 39–35 win versus the Colts? Their defense. The Lions were up 21–10 at the half and 28–18 before Andrew Luck willed his team back.
Luckily for them they will not deal with Luck, but Marcus Mariota and the run-heavy Titans. Marcus Mariota and company gave the Vikings much more of a fight than some expected. The defense did not give up a touchdown and if Mariota was able to take care of the football the Titans would be heading into this tilt at 1–0. DeMarco Murray’s comeback season is on track, he totaled just 77 total yards in Week 1, but did find the end zone twice on touchdown passes.
Given the Lions’ suspect defense this game should have a fair amount of scoring. Your best bet is to stay away from this game and just bet on the individual players. But if you have to pick, I’d say take the points.
Prediction: Titans 31, Lions 33
Ravens (-6.5) over BROWNS
I’m fed up with the Browns. I know they were an underdog last week, but you let a rookie who hasn’t taken a snap own you like that? And Robert Griffin III is already hurt? I’m selling whatever stock I had in the Browns. After all the hype of Hue Jackson the quarterback whisperer the Browns offense was nowhere to be found. Now enters Josh McCown who will look to replicate the success he had against the Ravens last season. Good luck with that.
The Ravens weren’t exactly tested last week by the Bills. Joe Flacco is healthy and throwing bombs to new weapon Mike Wallace. It’s only a matter of time until Steve Smith gets his legs back underneath him and the run game gets going behind a solid offensive line. What better team to get on track against than the worst team in the league?
If the Browns somehow make this close then good for them they need something to cheer about. Terrelle Pryor’s metamorphosis is the best thing the team has going for them, maybe he can make this interesting. But chances are the Ravens will do what the Eagles did to them the week prior and the Browns will continue their path to the top pick of the 2017 NFL Draft.
Prediction: Ravens 34, Browns 23
Cowboys (+3.5) over REDSKINS
Thanks for showing up in your home opener Kirk Cousins. Why I put my faith in them is idiotic — never base a decision this year on last year’s results — but I’m ready to move forward. Another garbage performance from Cousins might make him an early candidate for the Sam Bradford Award (given to the player who bets on himself in a contract year and loses). DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed look like the only reliable options and don’t get me started on the defense. DeAngelo Williams’s foot is still up the defense’s ass after he flambéed them for 143 yards and two touchdowns.
In case you missed the hours of football analysts verbally masturbating, the Cowboys’ biggest strength is their offensive line. The Steelers line was able to slice through a Redskins front line so expect the Cowboys to gash the run defense wide open. All the “Zeke Elliott isn’t that good” hype will die down as the Cowboys should call run plays until Zeke’s feet hurt. Fellow rookie Dak Prescott looked good in his debut and facing a lesser defense this time around should shift from game manager to playmaker in this one.
Prediction: Cowboys 24, Redskins 20
GIANTS (-5.5) over Saints
The clubhouse leader for RedZone game of the week. The last time these two faced off 101 points were scored. Last week the Saints couldn’t stop scoring. Drew Brees turned back the clock to 2011 and slaughtered what was supposed to be a solid Raiders defense for 423 yards and four touchdowns to no interceptions. Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead were responsible for 315 of those yards and three of those touchdowns. So how the fuck did the Saints lose? Their “defense” if you want to disrespect the word defense like that. Not only did they give up 35 points, they gave up game-tying and game-winning two-point conversions on straightforward pass plays. They tackled like a JV team scrimmaging the Varsity.
Tape of that Saints defense has to have Eli Manning smiling for the first time in his life. Manning’s unit was solid in Week 1 against the Cowboys, but Odell Beckham did not even get going. This week ODB will get going. Even if the Saints triple-teamed him all game he will still probably score. And if he doesn’t? Sterling Shepard, Victor Cruz, and even Larry Donnell will almost definitely be open. Could be a shootout, could be a blowout. Just know the Giants will have more points.
Prediction: Saints 33, Giants 41
PANTHERS (-14) over 49ers
I stared at this spread for ten minutes straight and thought out every possible scenario. The 49ers suck and everyone including Vegas knows it. Their 28–0 win against the Rams was more of an indictment on Jeff Fisher than it was of Blaine Gabbert. Carlos Hyde and Navarro Bowman are studs and that’s about it. When facing a real team the 49ers should show their true selves.
The Panthers are more than a real team. They’re a great team. They’re a great team that’s pissed off. Last week’s collapse had to have Cam Newton and company fuming. They knew it was their game to win. Expect them to take out all their frustration on the 49ers defense which will feel like decreasing the difficulty from All-Madden to Pro. You almost always take the points in this match-up, but the context is too compelling for a Panthers home opener blowout.
Prediction: 49ers 10, Panthers 35
PATRIOTS (-6) over Dolphins
Why won’t the Patriots just die? Even without their Hall of Fame quarterback and tight end and 60-percent of their offensive line missing they were able to beat an elite team on the road. Bill Belichick is a mastermind and time to time we forget about that. The system he built in New England is a perfectly coded system that works with any inputs. There is no other reason for Jimmy Garoppolo was so damn good. I refuse to believe any other reason he beat the Cardinals defense in their house. Having what looks like the best defense of the Belichick Era is another possibility.
If the Dolphins thought they were out of the ringer they better guess again. Just like last week in Seattle they will face a top flight defense that will embarrass them if they don’t bring their A-game. Assuming the Patriots remove Jarvis Landry from the game that leaves Ryan Tannehill with three options — DeVante Parker, take the loss, or throw it to Kenny Stills or as he will soon be known as, Ted Ginn III. Tannehill probably audibles to option number two midway through the second half.
Prediction: Dolphins 7, Patriots 20
TEXANS (-2.5) over Chiefs
How many times can these guy play? How many times can the Chiefs beat the Texans in Houston? These are the questions Texans fans are asking themselves as they pray Brock Osweiler is not Brian Hoyer with a better arm. Don’t worry he’s not, he’s legit. After his early interception last week Osweiler settled down to throw two touchdowns to his top two targets DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. The defense will be without linebacker Brian Cushing, but they still have J.J. Watt, Jonathan Joseph, Jadaveon Clowney and Vince Wilfork.
With no Jamaal Charles for a second straight week that could be enough to hold the Chiefs down. Until you see what Spencer Ware was able to do in last week’s franchise-record 21-point comeback. He led the team in rushing and receiving as he successfully played the role of Jamaal Charles. If Ware can continue that success against a much much much much better Texans defense then we can start asking if Ware is the Chiefs’ new guy.
Prediction: Chiefs 16, Texans 19
Seahawks (-3.5) over RAMS
If you were one of the millions to choose sleep (if you’re on the east coast) or anything else you are already a better decision maker than Jeff Fisher. For some amazing reason Fisher figured that Jared Goff — who the team gave up their future to draft — was not good enough to play. Even more amazing he thought Case “Check Down” Keenum was a better option? Dude, what the fuck? Poor Todd Gurley had no shot at doing anything last night with the all eleven defenders (rightfully) focused on him.
The Seahawks don’t need to devote that much energy to stop Gurley to begin with. If Kam Chancellor is able to play the game at the line of scrimmage with no fear of a deep ball all bets are off for Gurley to not crack 50 yards rushing again. This game could not be coming at a better time for the Seahawks offense. Russell Wilson is hobbled after his ankle got Suh’d last week and will be operating at his most basic gear. The blend of the defense going full tilt downhill and the offense on cruise control seems fitting for a second straight loss for the LA Rams.
Prediction: Seahawks 17, Rams 3
Buccaneers (+6.5) over CARDINALS
Last week was supposed to be a (relative) cakewalk for the Cardinals. Opening night on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots without Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski. Carson Palmer back to the Carson Palmer we saw during the regular season last year. Yet, the Patriots were able to leave Phoenix with a win and the Cards were left wondering what the hell just happened. There were no glaring miscues — aside from Chandler Catanzaro missing the game-winning field goal — for Bruce Arians to point at for the loss.
Up next for the Cardinals are the Buccaneers who are coming off a road win in Atlanta. Jameis Winston was on fire, eclipsing 300 yards throwing with four touchdowns to zero interceptions, as was his top option Mike Evans. The Bucs won’t lay down for the Cardinals this week so David Johnson is going to have to go beast mode again. Larry Fitzgerald, the ageless legend, will have to have another strong outing, and above all it’s time to let the Honey Badger, Tyrann Mathieu loose in the secondary. They kept Mathieu on cruise control in Week 1 as he works his way back from an ACL tear, but with a hot-handed Winston coming into the building its time to set the dogs loose.
Prediction: Buccaneers 17, Cardinals 23
Jaguars (+3) over CHARGERS
The Chargers were oh so close to a phenomenal start to 2016. They were up 21–3 on the Chiefs at one point then remembered they are the Chargers. Once Keenan Allen went down with a torn ACL it was downhill from there. The Chiefs stormed back to win 34–28 in OT and Philip Rivers was left staring into space wondering where he went wrong in life. The one bright spot moving forward is second year running back Melvin Gordon who finally resembled the player most thought the Chargers were getting when they took him 15th overall in last year’s draft.
Things went a lot better for the Jaguars in their loss. There typically are not moral victories in the pros, but the Jaguars four-point loss to the Packers in Week 1 is as close as it gets. Aaron Rodgers was back to being A-Rod thanks to a healthy supporting cast, accounting for three all three touchdowns. Blake Bortles was not much worse, but he did make one mistake and it ended up costing the Jags the game. This week they get a much easier matchup and could have free agent signing Chris Ivory back after he was hospitalized over the weekend. This will probably be ugly and probably feature a lot of scoring. Watch at your own risk.
Prediction: Jaguars 34, Chargers 27
RAIDERS (-5.5) over Falcons
The Raiiiiiders!! Silver and Black are indeed back and they don’t want to hear your win probability nonsense ESPN. Jack Del Rio’s balls are clearly bigger than we thought and as they say a pair of balls beats anything. Thanks to Blackjack Del Rio the Raiders left New Orleans 1–0 heading into their home opener. The offense spearheaded by Derek Carr and Amari Cooper had no problem scoring, but the defense had a problem stopping the Saints from scoring. Luckily for them they get Matt Ryan this week.
What ever happened to Matty Ice? Once considered on the cusp of elite Ryan is now the main reason his team can’t win. Whenever Ryan plays well it immediately becomes a must-win for the Falcons because they cannot waste such rare performances. Well that’s what happened last week. Ryan played a clean and effective game (334 yards 2 TDs, 0 TO), but the defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed in the second half. Jameis Winston feasted on the Falcons secondary and it won’t get easier for them as they have a hot Raiders offense coming at them full speed.
Prediction: Falcons 24, Raiders 34
Colts (+6) over BRONCOS
Trevor Siemian! Trevor Siemian!? How the hell did Trevor Siemian beat the Panthers? Oh, CJ Anderson went berserk and the Broncos defense tried to behead Cam Newton, that’s why. If you were one of the victims of Anderson’s career game (I faced him in both leagues) you know what I’m talking about. The Broncos defense was vicious in the second half versus the Panthers and reminded us how they carried a washed up Peyton Manning to the promise land. Expect the same formula of Anderson, defense, with Siemian sprinkled in this week.
That Broncos defense will have to be on again because Andrew Luck is back. Following last year’s season from hell Luck returned to form in Week 1, willing his garbage support system to almost comeback versus the Lions at home. Down 21–3 at one point Luck went HAM, tossing four touchdowns as he tied the game up at 34–34. Then the Colts defense took the field again and it was all over. If this lousy unit can be competent against the run they have a fighting chance to make this competitive. Out of respect for Luck I think he covers in garbage time despite his subpar supporting cast.
Prediction: Colts 19, Broncos 23
Packers (-2.5) over VIKINGS
Look out world Aaron Rodgers got his boys back. The Packers ended last season in the trainer’s room leaving Rodgers to make magic by himself. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are now healthy. Davante Adams is now good. Eddie Lacy has lost weight. All of that translated to a relatively painless road win to start the season. Things cannot be going any better for the Packers at the moment.
The same cannot be said about the Vikings offense who did not score a touchdown last week. It was expected that the focus would be solely on Adrian Peterson with Shaun Hill under center, but damn. Against an okay (at best) Titans defense AP was held to a disgusting 1.6 yards per carry and was only able to total 31 rushing yards. Yikes. Sam Bradford should get the start on Sunday night, but can you really bank on him carrying the offense this early? The defense will keep this close, but I don’t see 2–0 from this bunch.
Prediction: Packers 20, Vikings 16
Eagles (+3) over BEARS
A tough game to pick for all the wrong reasons. Kudos to the NFL for sticking ESPN with the garbage game. This game should follow the footsteps of the two shit shows we were on last Monday. Carson Wentz proved that practice performance does not translate to game performance. Once he was named starter for Week 1 after little no reps in the preseason it was assumed the Eagles would struggle. That was the furthest thing from the case. Wentz had some rookie moments, but none of them fatal. Against a soft Browns defense he was able to make all the throws he had to.
The Bears are another soft matchup on defense. These aren’t your grandfather’s or father’s Bears. These Bears are not very good and the one department they are completely pathetic in is the defense. On offense Jeremy Langford and Alshon Jeffery are good. Kevin White could be good. Jay Cutler is not good enough to carry a struggling defense. Against a ballhawking defense like Eagles expect some Cutlet interceptions and a lot of groans in Soldier Field.
Prediction: Eagles 26, Bears 23
Last Week: 6–10
