According to the Think Tanks of the Atlantic Council, the five most significant geopolitical risks for the world the rest of 2018 have been identified. A Washington-based policy Think Tank has also stated that four out of the five risks are linked with the administrations of President Donald Trump and has advised to fasten up your seat belts as it would be a roller coaster ride throughout the rest of the year.
WHAT TO EXPECT:
- According to Fred Kempe, President and CEO of the Atlantic Council, one of the risks is related to the unexpected leadership turnover in Russia and its consequences on US political affairs as the US presidency is under heat for a possible cooperation with Russia in its 2016 elections. The power packed actions by Trump’s presidency last month on the indictment of 13 Russian nationals and 3 Russian entities and the subpoena by Special Counsel Robert Muller, the President’s dismissal of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the resignation of Economic Adviser Gary Cohn, speculation that National Security Adviser Herbert R. McMaster may be next and his subsequent dismissal after such speculations were shut down by Trump himself are some of the political incidents seen in the US just this first quarter of the year; a few of the political shocks the world would face.
- A deadline decided by Trump regarding the nuclear deal on Iran for May is drawing close. The tension related to this issue can be felt all around as the deadline draws closer and closer with the deal’s future being uncertain. Any decision made in this situation would greatly impact the future geopolitical consequences.
- “Dealing with an emboldened Vladimir Putin of Russia”. This statement is based on his recent victory in Russia’s national elections which is widely suspected of being meddled with, him being accused of attacking an ex-spy on British soil with a nerve agent and the Kremlin’s believed interference in the recent national elections in the US and Europe. It’s a potential source of instability in world politics in the near future.
- The demand of new aluminum and steel tariffs by Trump’s administration could negatively impact US agriculture products especially soya bean as it could become a cause for retaliation by the Chinese President Xi Jinping due to the new tariffs and additional trade measures against China.
- US-North Korea summit to take place as early as May could also turn the table of geopolitical situations around the globe. It could either reduce the danger or heighten the chances of nuclear war.
OUR THOUGHTS:
The ability of the World to absorb, process and react the conclusions of these risks when not fully recovered from the previous year and first quarter would drastically affect the upcoming second quarter and depend on these conclusions; strengthen the Worlds politics and economic recovery or completely crumble it.
