Illumina (ILMN): New data on research and clinical demand

Innovatively makes sense of public research data to provide fast, easy access to information on company, markets, and products. With this new level of access to data, users can derive information that has never been available before. Here, Innovatively provides a new source of data on research and clinical demand for Illumina instruments. Interested in a subscription to the data to track monthly changes? Let’s chat at

Illumina (NASDAQ:ILMN) develops and markets tools for genetic analysis. In recent months, share price has tumbled, threatening to reach the 52-week low $130. A key question driving the debate is Illumina’s demand in research and clinical settings. The uncertainty stems from limited data to assess and forecast the demand. Innovatively’s platform digests millions of data points from public sources to track the monthly changes in Illumina usage. We’re able to drill data down to instrument class and individual customers.

Research demand for Illumina

We first looked at Illumina usage in research. Illumina usage peaked in 2010 and has since been declining. The numbers for 2015 are to date (as of Oct 8, 2015). Our data supports other reports projecting a decrease in research demand and concerns on the longer-than-expected replacement cycle. When segmenting the data by instrument class, we found HiSeq instruments are now the most popular class and HiSeq 2000 is the most used model. We also looked at usage by competitors. Although Illumina’s overall usage has declined in research, Illumina dwarfs the competition by an order of magnitude.

Clinical demand for Illumina

We then examined Illumina’s usage in clinical settings. In contrast to research usage, we found clinical usage increasing overall and MiSeq instruments more popular. With another quarter to go in 2015, Illumina’s clinical usage is on track to reach its highest level. This is in contrast to others projecting decreased clinical demand. While the data is promising for Illumina’s penetration into the clinical diagnostics market, clinical usage is a fraction of Illumina’s overall usage. The y-axis of clinical usage below is scaled to 1/10th of research usage above.

New demand for Illumina

Analyzing usage is a broad indicator of Illumina’s market penetration but does not separate sales of new instruments from recurring usage of current instruments. We took the analysis one step further to assess the adoption of Illumina in clinical settings, a critical question in Illumina’s near-term growth. We identified the number of new institutions each year using Illumina instruments in a clinical setting. This is an indicator of Illumina’s ability to place instruments in new institutions. Though not as steady of an increase, the adoption trend is similar to overall clinical usage. Amid the uncertainty, Innovatively’s data shows promising trends in Illumina’s ability to expand its instrument base in the clinical diagnostics market.

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