Atlanta United — The MVP’s
Atlanta United are currently atop in the table in the Eastern Conference, and leading the Supporter’s Shield race. Atlanta has gotten there on the strength of their attack, leading the league in goals scored. That attack is powered by two of the best players in the league, Josef Martinez and Miguel Almiron.
Josef Martinez — The MLS MVP
With 10 games to go Josef Martinez has scored 26 goals (six of them from the penalty spot). He’s going to run away with the single-season goal scoring record, which is currently set at 27 and shared by three people. He’s not really a shot monster (about 3 shots/90), but he gets into better shooting locations (.35 xG/shot) than anyone in MLS. Every time I watch Martinez I’m struck by his “nose for the goal.” That being said, “nose for the goal” is the kind of cliche I try to avoid so I wanted to try to both illustrate it, and quantify it. The video below is my favorite illustration of Martinez’s desire to score. In a meaningless game he scrambles across the field and puts his face right in the way of another player’s foot in an attempt to get a goal.
Quantifying it was a little trickier. What I settled on was the difference between his Goal Involvement Rate(GIR) and Chance Involvement Rate(CIR). Goal Involvement Rate is simply the percentage of a team’s goals that a player was the secondary creator, primary creator, or goal scorer in. Chance Involvement Rate is the same, but for scoring chances instead of just goals.
As you can see, Martinez’s GIR is almost 30% higher than his CIR, whereas everyone else on the chart has almost no difference between the two. The difference could be a function of system, it could be a sign of Martinez’s “desire”, it could also mean he’s due for regression, but for now I’m going to use it as an attempt to quantify his “nose for goal.”
Miguel Almiron — Atlanta United’s MVP
Miguel Almiron is struggling to find the back of the net this year. TiotalFootball just wrote a great piece on why that’s probably not a big deal. I expect Almiron’s finishing to revert to something in line with xG in the future, but if he isn’t finishing how on earth could he be the team’s MVP? The Chance Chart above showed that he’s more involved in Atlanta’s chances than anyone else, but he’s actually more involved in his team’s chances than anyone in MLS.
Almiron is tops in MLS in xA, and x2A (Expected Secondary Assists or Hockey Assists), and he’s also 4th in xG. He’s taking a ton of shots this year, and pairing that with above average shot selection(.15xG/shot while the league average is .10xG/shot). The only players taking as many shots per 90 and generating more xG/90 in MLS are Zlatan, David Villa, Giovinco, and Corey Burke.
That’d be a pretty good list for a striker to be on, but Almiron isn’t a striker; he’s the best attacking midfielder in the league. His value as a creator outpaces his value as a scoring threat. As either a primary or secondary creator Almiron is generating 4.22 chances per 90 minutes, and the chances are above average chances. The xG/chance where Almiron was the secondary creator is .16, slightly better than what Almiron generates as a shooter. When Almiron is the primary creator that number jumps to .23.
Watch While You Can
I was going to try to end with a hot take about which player I’d rather build a team around, but I couldn’t come up with any real way to separate the two. I expect Almiron to break the Alphonso Davies transfer fee record in the next year. I expect Martinez will head back to Europe on a similar timeline. Tata Martino’s contract expires at the end of this year, and while it is expected that he will continue as head coach it is absolutely possible that he will receive an offer he can’t refuse in the off-season. Atlanta United are the best show on turf at the moment, but the show won’t last forever. Watch while you can.
This article was written with the aid of StrataData, which is property of Stratagem Technologies. StrataData powers the StrataBet Sports Trading Platform.
