Pulisic to Chelsea
The deal
Dortmund sold Christian Pulisic to Chelsea for the highest transfer fee ever paid for an American player: €64 million. As Tutul pointed out on Twitter, that’s as much as the next 7 transfer fees combined.
While the transfer was agreed to in the January window, Pulisic won’t be leaving Dortmund for London until the Summer Transfer Window opens in July. The move raises a number of questions; I’m going to attempt to answer three big ones and one smaller one:
Why would Dortmund sell?
Why would Pulisic agree to a Chelsea move?
Why would Chelsea target Pulisic?
Why was the deal structured this way?
Let’s start small
Why would Chelsea buy Pulisic and then immediately loan him back to Dortmund for the rest of this season? I think two things are at play here. First, Dortmund are still alive in Champions League and 6 points clear atop the table in the Bundesliga. While Pulisic has fallen down the pecking order a bit under Lucien Favre, he’s still gotten over 800 minutes in the first half of the season and has been a regular member of their squad. Dortmund, likely to have more replacement options available to them in the Summer, did not want to weaken their squad while still competing both in Europe and domestically. Additionally, Chelsea are making a huge investment in Pulisic and are obviously incentivized to value his development. Mauricio Sarri has stated that because of the pressure to win, he can’t incorporate young players into the squad. Between that reality and the fact that Willian and Pedro are both still on the books, it makes sense that Chelsea would want Pulisic to stay in Dortmund (and theoretically receive regular playing time) before bringing him into the squad this summer when it seems likely that either Willian or Pedro will depart.
OK, on to the bigger things.
Why would Dortmund sell Pulisic?
The most obvious reason is because it’s consistent with Dortmund’s business model. They bring in young players, then sell them for the right price. That being said, at the beginning of the year, the discussion around Pulisic was that this was his year to shine at Dortmund, and that hasn’t happened. Instead, he’s been surpassed by Jadon Sancho and Jacob Bruun Larsen.
Pulisic hasn’t matched the underlying numbers he put up in the 2016–17 season in either of the last two seasons. In ‘16–17 he was at .52 xG+xA/90, dropping to .42 last season, and falling again this year to .32 (To be fair, the sample size has been smaller this year, with only 484 league minutes played). While Sancho has burst onto the international stage by putting up .68 xG+xA/90 as an 18-year-old, and Bruun Larsen (20) has had a solid year, contributing .42 xG+xA/90.
The last factor in Dortmund’s decision to sell may be tactical fit. In my opinion, Pulisic was a much better fit under Tuchel (and to a lesser extent Klopp) than he is under Favre. Pulisic is tremendous at pressuring opposing fullbacks high up the field and intelligently moving the ball as part of a possession-oriented system. Under Favre, Dortmund have been high pressing less and countering more.
€64 million for a 20-year-old acquired on a free at age 16 is an incredible return on investment. Given Dortmund’s position, it would be hard to say no to that kind of return under the best of circumstances, and the last two seasons haven’t been the best of circumstances for Pulisic.
Why would Pulisic agree to a move to Chelsea?
From an outside perspective, it is easy to be negative about a move to Chelsea. They don’t have a great track record of developing young talent. They have a manager who has said he can’t play young players because of the pressure he’s under to win now. They have a notoriously impulsive owner, and they already have a young player in Callum Hudson-Odoi, who plays the same position as Pulisic, is highly regarded, and can’t get any playing time.
Pulisic likely grew up watching the Premier League, and it doesn’t seem farfetched at all to imagine that it was a boyhood dream to play there. Of the top 6 teams, Chelsea is probably the best landing spot for him at the moment. It’s hard to see a path to playing time at Spurs, Liverpool, or City. United don’t have a manager and haven’t had a direction since Ferguson retired. Arsenal have a manager but haven’t been playing a style of soccer that would seem to mesh well with Pulisic’s talents.
Sarri’s got some tactical similarities to Tuchel, who oversaw Pulisic’s most successful season. Because Chelsea don’t have much depth on the wing, it’s easy to see why Christian and his advisers would believe that he’ll get playing time there. Finally, he probably just got a big raise. As a currently unemployed person, I can appreciate how persuasive a big raise can be.
Why would Chelsea target Pulisic?
Pulisic is tremendously accomplished for a 20-year-old. His xG+xA/90 number as an 18-year-old compares favorably to the non-Hazard wingers Chelsea currently have, and there is every reason to think that playing under Sarri could return him to that level. On top of Pulisic’s obvious talent, there is the lack of depth at winger in Chelsea’s squad (The wingers currently on Chelsea’s squad are Eden Hazard, Willian, Pedro, and Callum Hudson-Odoi).
Hazard, playing as a false 9 under Sarri, has, at various points, hinted at wanting a move to Real Madrid. Pulisic is certainly not being brought in to challenge Hazard for minutes or replace Hazard if he does force a move to Real Madrid. What Pulisic could do is take some pressure off Hazard as a ball-progressor and free him up to be more focused on his duties as a creator and goal threat. Pulisic is a prolific dribbler and a capable passer who would fit seamlessly into Sarri’s system as a ball-progressing winger.
Willian is 30; Pedro is 31. As discussed in this piece, wide attacking players typically peak at 25 and have entered their decline before age 30. Willian is putting up .48 xG+xA/90 while Pedro is slightly ahead of him at .52. I expect one of them to depart Chelsea in the summer window. It’s also not hard to imagine Pulisic surpassing their current performance levels immediately upon his integration into the squad.
Callum Hudson-Odoi has less than 75 Premier League minutes in the last 2 seasons. He’s performed well for England’s youth national teams and certainly looks to be a player capable of big things. It’s possible Chelsea are undervaluing an asset already under their control in favor of the face of the United States Men’s National Team and tons of money from American consumers over the next 10 years. However, given that Pulisic has already played over 6,000 minutes in the Bundesliga and European competitions, it is easy to see why Chelsea would have more faith in him than Hudson-Odoi and his 285 professional minutes.
Winners and losers
You must have me confused with someone who fires off reactionary hot takes. This move makes a lot of sense for all involved parties. Dortmund were able to offload a player who had failed to meet expectations this year. Chelsea were able to acquire a young player with star potential at a position of need, and Pulisic was able to move to a team in the Premier League who will be invested in his development, represent a better tactical fit, and pay him more.
