What is FC Dallas doing?
The Trade
On July 23, 2018, FC Dallas sent Kellyn Acosta and a second round pick in the upcoming SuperDraft to Colorado for Dominique Badji, the right to swap first round picks with Colorado, and a 2019 International Slot. Additionally, Dallas retained a 50% share of any transfer fee Colorado would receive for Acosta if he were sold by the conclusion of the 2020 season.
Acosta, who had fallen down the pecking order at FC Dallas, was behind Carlos Gruezo, Victor Ulloa, and Jacori Hayes for playing time, a stark contrast to this time last year when it was rumored that he would be off to the Bundesliga soon. Frequently cited as evidence that Dallas’ homegrown pipeline is working, Acosta is absolutely its most successful homegrown player to date. Given his place in the team, it makes sense that Oscar Pareja and Co. would try to trade Acosta while his value was still high, but did they get enough?
Colorado’s pick will probably be top three; for simplicity’s sake, let’s assume it will be the third pick. The third pick has been traded each of the last two years for $250,000 GAM. Dallas’ first pick is likely to be worth about $50,000 GAM, so on the pick swap, Dallas should accrue about $200,000 GAM in surplus value. International Slots prices have been rising, but even if they become steady, the 2019 International Slot will be worth $100,000 GAM. The second round pick Dallas is sending back to Colorado is essentially worthless. The Patrick Mullins trade is a solid jumping off point for a valuation on Badji. He hasn’t been quite as productive as Mullins, but he has shown an ability to stay healthy. If you value Badji at $150,000 TAM or $100,000 GAM, Dallas is getting basically an identical haul to the one New York Red Bull got for Dax McCarty. A year ago, that trade package would have seemed like a pretty light return for Acosta, but at this point that might be pretty good.
How does Badji compare to Dallas’ other attacking options?
Not great. He’s behind both Maxi Urruti and Cristian Colman in every attacking metric I examined. The table below shows each player’s performance (by percentile, so Urruti is in the 94th percentile for shots/90 in MLS) and compares it to the league average.
As a pure goal-scoring threat, Badji is a relatively decent replacement if Dallas were to part with Urruti; however, Badji offers almost nothing as a creator, an area where Urruti is above average for the position. It’s more likely that Badji was brought in to replace Cristian Colman eventually. Badji is more affordable, and like Colman, is a pure goal-scoring 9. This trade is actually probably a pretty good move for Dallas (A better move would be playing Colman), considering that Colman hasn’t been playing at all. It saves money, opens up a DP spot (if Colman is jettisoned), and provides an opportunity to select a difference maker in the upcoming SuperDraft. SuperDraft selections are obviously risky, but recent history is littered with impact players being selected near the top of the draft: Jonathan Lewis, Julian Gressel, Chris Mueller, Jack Harrison, just off the top of my head.
It’s possible Dallas’ counter-attacking style frees Badji up to use his pace more, and he is fast. In a post-Mauro Diaz Dallas, maybe he’s an ideal fit, but it’s still interesting to see a team acquire a player who doesn’t profile as an improvement in any way (except cost) over already available options.
Data from American Soccer Analysis
