The Indian EV Revolution: What we expect
What’s happening in the World?
Statements like “Electric is the future” and “EVs will cause a revolution” can be heard from almost every demographic of the world. In case you’ve ever heard or spoken these statements, let me assure you that the revolution has already begun, and the future is now! The question we should be asking is, Will EVs displace traditional transportation in the next two decades? What are the chances of them coexisting in the future?
To answer these questions, we must first understand that why is the transition to EVs so essential? Can the benefits be only limited to “saving the environment” or curbing vehicular pollution? not really, an electric vehicle actually proves to be a better option logistically. Here’s how,
EVs have far fewer moving parts than the traditional internal combustion engine. The battery, motor, and electronics associated with an EV require limited and predictable maintenance.
To put the points mentioned above into perspective, savings on maintenance per 160,000 kms would be close to 1 lakh INR. The mileage provided by an e-vehicle is unmatched, prices per km drop drastically. Further, incentivizing demand, tax exemptions from the government are a great source of initial encouragement for consumers.
Is EV the future?
Now, regarding our earlier question about EVs displacing traditional transport? Incumbent giants such as Volkswagen and General Motors have heavily invested in the potential EV Revolution. When the big players from the traditional game, go “all in”, you know that the transition is inevitable. Saudi Aramco has gone from saying it wasn’t worried about electric cars to now forming partnerships with chemical laboratories to diversify its business.
Let’s look at this from an Indian spectacle: I believe that the EV revolution in India will not be based on environmental consciousness, but rather on affordable prices and accessible infrastructure.
While Tesla is an innovator when it comes to 4W EVs, I’m afraid that with that kind of pricing it would have to compete with luxury cars in India, which wouldn’t suffice to change 1.2 billion people’s transportation habits. Existing players like MG hector, Tata motors, Kia (all 3 have already rolled out semi-electric models) will be instrumental in driving the growth of EVs among the masses in India.
The Indian Perspective:
Other than pricing, two major determining factors in India would be the 2W segment and dense charging infrastructure. Let’s explore both of them individually:
1. Two-wheeler segment: The two-wheeler segment comprises a whopping 74% of India’s total vehicle fleet; any transformation in the sector would be incomplete without innovation here. Electric scooters are wildly popular in China, and policies like exempting electric two-wheelers from licenses and placing restrictions on Petrol 2W use in city centres have proven beneficial. We can learn from these policies and take a step in the right direction. Just by having transformed the 2W segment, we would have reduced a good percentage of vehicular pollution.
2. Charging (Accessibility and Costing): The current prices are just not suited for the Indian market to say the least. The cost of 1KWh Li-ion battery ranges over 15,000- 20,000 INR, this would mean that the cost of 5 KWh, required for a 100km range of Li-ion battery would be well over the price of a generic scooter, which is surely not practical. To bring down battery costs and build sustainable charging infrastructure in India, a mammoth effort would be necessary. This could be our potential roadmap as per NITI AAYOG’s report during the Global mobility summit:
. The development of an ecosystem for fast charging and battery swapping by creating an infrastructure of charging stations, whose density could be as high as 1/per km in high-demand areas.
· Incentivizing developments to increase the efficiency of the vehicle, thereby reducing energy consumption
· Exploring new battery chemistries to suit the Indian market. Also, India must aim to gain the required raw materials from the recycling of used batteries, by aiming to become the capital of Urban Mining.
Outlook:
We can see a huge opportunity lying ahead start-ups driving any part of the EV ecosystem. And there is great business potential to the service and software applications to EVs as well. These could be applications in the controller, the BMS, the infotainment system, applications to help while designing/manufacturing an EV. Remember, most of the components on EVs are electronics constantly communicating with each other. They are moving computers.
The vision of an EV enabled India can only become a reality when the government is backed by the brilliant minds and works to develop affordable and accessible technological solutions. Our goal must be to invest heavily in start-ups that will enable us to accomplish these objectives. I highly doubt a foreign corporation-led transition, I’m optimistic about a home-grown revolution.
