On Revolutions…

Eugène Delacroix, Liberty Leading the People, oil on canvas, September — December, 1830 (exhibited and purchased by the state from the Salon of 1831) 2.6 x 3.25m (Louvre, Paris)

Thomas Jefferson said, “Every generation needs a new revolution.” But what happens when a culture becomes so splintered that generations are experiencing not just one but multiple revolutions? How does the culture sort itself out?

Well, welcome to 2020.

There are a few trends emerging that place us at the cross-roads of massive cultural change.

First, the obvious, it’s an election year. 2020 has been one of the most insane years that I can recall, with a global pandemic, racial protests, and millions of people unemployed. This year, it seems, so much has come to a head. And, in the United States, it seems like presidential elections are litmus tests for the very soul of the country. Who we elect tells us something about ourselves. It becomes personal for a whole nation.

Second, the less obvious, 2020 comes after a trend that really started when Howard Dean launched his online grassroots fundraising and blew everybody away. The Internet has vastly reshaped the very way we exist. Dean was a first example, but then Obama’s use of social media, Trump’s use of Twitter, an ongoing confusion of facts and truth… The whole world is being reshaped by our new, digital lives. Outside actors have begun to insert themselves into our political systems. And, it seems like everything is just getting faster. The kind of trends that used to take months or weeks to come to a head — organizing a rally, for example — can now happen on the fly, in a few hours. When everybody’s got a voice, and some are using theirs destructively, we’re struggling to know what to listen to.

Third, things have gotten a little bit better, and that brings on revolutions. Let me explain. University of Oregon professor James Chowning Davies coined a term called, “The Theory of Rising Expectations,” which asserts that revolutions are a subjective response to a sudden reversal in fortunes after a long period of economic growth.

The Davies J-Curve, which summarizes the theory

Basically: When things are bad, and they stay bad, revolutions don’t happen. It’s when things get a little better, and the expectations are that they’ll continue to get better, but then they plateau or get worse, that’s when revolutions happen.

We definitely mythologize revolutions

A “revolution,” both in the way that Jefferson described it and what I intend to focus on, can be peaceful. And, indeed, in a lot of ways, the United States has experienced many revolutions over the generations. Some could say that Reagan was a revolution, Jimmy Carter was a revolution, the civil rights movement was a revolution… Barack Obama… Donald Trump…

Some could say that the peaceful transfer of power from one party to the other is in some ways a revolution. In fact, when Thomas Jefferson took over as president in 1800, he described it as “a revolution in the principles of our government.”

This kind of idea, then, leads me to formulate an additional theory — that in America, the party that best takes advantage of the revolutions in our culture are able to win. Trump won because he took advantage of new technology to capture the zeitgeist felt deeply by white men, whose communities were destroyed by the opioid epidemic, the crumbling manufacturing sector and a persistent feeling of being left behind. One of the most popular books during that election was “Hillbilly Elegy,” and its author made the point in interviews that one of the only groups not protected by social norms were poor white men.

Obama won because he used new technology to capture the zeitgeist around change and fulfilling the promise of an aging baby boomer generation. He managed to build a coalition around the young and the hopeful and people yearning for a change.

This is not new. Kennedy used television to his advantage when he beat Nixon. FDR created a radio channel for his “fireside chats.” Benjamin Franklin owned a printing press!

But what might be new is the two converging revolutions happening right now. On one side, white men are feeling like their rights are under attack. They listen to Ben Shapiro and Jordan Peterson, and they deeply want to return to cultural norms that they feel would leave them better protected. Trump is a cultural lodestone for them, and what conservatives have seen in new voices entering the mainstream feels like it’s being taken away. These aren’t necessarily the Alex Joneses of the world, but the, which is very odd to me, James Demores.

On the other side, the moderate gains made over the eight years of Obama in so many respects — from the environment to any kind of progress on civil rights— feel like they’re rapidly being eroded by a president who never won the popular vote and, there’s a fair bit of evidence to believe that he might have been helped (note: I’m not saying that there was collusion) by Russian interference.

These two ideas are coming together during a trainwreck of a year.

The image on the left took place on May 14, 2020; the picture on the right happened nearly exactly one month later, on June 13, 2020

The pandemic has exacerbated our country’s unemployment and inequality — there are two Americas, one where white collar, salaried employees can work from home and one where retail and hourly employees are scared about their benefits running out. Schools are closed, which removes a safe place for so many, and drives those in apartments and cities into cramped and chaotic circumstances. Our streets are full of guns and fear and distrust in a world that doesn’t know what’s true anymore. And you say you want a revolution…

But.

I think that we have a reason to be hopeful. In each instance in the past that I mentioned — good has come from periods of instability. This is true for timelines that stretch for centuries. And, as long as this can stay peaceful, we will arrive at a better world for all of it.

As long as this can stay peaceful…

You say you want a revolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it’s evolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world

But when you talk about destruction
Don’t you know that you can count me out
Don’t you know it’s gonna be
All right, all right, all right

You say you got a real solution
Well, you know
We’d all love to see the plan
You ask me for a contribution
Well, you know
We’re doing what we can

But if you want money for people with minds that hate
All I can tell is brother you have to wait
Don’t you know it’s gonna be
All right, all right, all right

You say you’ll change the constitution
Well, you know
We all want to change your head
You tell me it’s the institution
Well, you know
You better free you mind instead

But if you go carrying pictures of chairman Mao
You ain’t going to make it with anyone anyhow
Don’t you know it’s gonna be
All right, all right, all right
All right, all right, all right
All right, all right, all right
All right, all right