The Catcher Market At The Winter Meetings
MLB executives and agents are descending upon Las Vegas for the Winter Meetings and there are still a plethora of catchers looking for teams. Even though there are almost as many teams looking for a catcher as there are available catchers, the market has not really picked up — perhaps because one of the best catchers on the move has to be acquired via trade, not free agency.
J.T. Realmuto is the last man standing on the pre-Derek Jeter Era Marlins and all signs point to him being on a new team next season. However, the Marlins’ asking price is high — maybe unreasonably so. Even though the Marlins have said they do not necessarily want to trade Realmuto within their division the Mets and Braves are two of the teams with the most interest in the catcher. From the Mets, the Marlins are reportedly asking for two of Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, and Amed Rosario. The Mets seem reluctant to trade multiple players from their everyday lineup, preventing a deal from really taking shape as of yet. The Braves have reportedly offered two of their top 10 prospects in 3B Austin Riley and RHP Mike Soroka but the Marlins did not bite. The Phillies, Padres, and Rays are also interested in the catcher but there have not been any specifics about (potential) trade packages from them.
The Mets, Braves, and Phillies are all in win-now mode and should be able to pivot from Realmuto to one of the free agents easily if they do not like what they are hearing from the Marlins. At the same time, the Padres have as deep a farm system as anybody but if the Marlins want MLB-ready players then the teams would probably not be a match. So even with half a dozen teams interested in the same player, nobody is tripping over themselves to make a deal.
Realmuto is definitely one of the strongest catchers in the Majors at the moment, and provides offense at a weak offensive position. Last season he hit .277/.340./.484, when the average for the position was .232/.304/.372. However, the lack of offensive production from catchers around the league may lead teams to focus on defense behind the plate and consider any offensive contribution a bonus.
Teams looking at Realmuto are ones who are going for an all-around catcher upgrade and could look to Yasmani Grandal instead of trying to make a trade. Postseason defensive lapses aside, he is the strongest free agent option out there. Grandal’s +9 DRS is the best of any available catcher and his 3.6 fWAR is second to only Realmuto. His offensive contributions are not quite at the level of Realmuto, but the simple fact that a team would not have to part with any players to add him to the lineup may make him a more valuable and practical target.
Purely offensively, Wilson Ramos is the best free agent available. His .361 wOBA and 131 wRC+ both lead available catchers. His defense is so far behind the pack though that it would almost have to be a conscious disregard for whichever team signs him.
Purely defensively, Martín Maldonado stands out as a strong option. The 2017 AL Gold Glove winner leads all available catchers with +3 rSB and +11.3 Def.
Beyond those four, most of the catchers on the market seem to fall in the “veteran” category. Rebuilding teams, like the Diamondbacks and Mariners, as well as teams with established starters but iffy backups, like the Cubs, are most likely to be looking at the class of Devin Mesoraco, René Rivera, Matt Wieters, and Jonathan Lucroy to fill out their roster.
This week is going to be important because right now the market is hyper-focused on Realmuto and Grandal. Once the big two are off the table then every team — contenders and rebuilders, those looking for starters and backups — will be reaching into the same pool. Essentially, Realmuto and Grandal are the first dominos, which will send all the other catcher dominos falling.
But Realmuto moving depends on the Marlins figuring out what they want or coming to terms with what they can realistically get in a trade. Last year the Marlins kicked off the Winter Meetings with a big trade, so maybe they will do the same this year and the rest of the week will be a flurry of activity with catchers finding teams and teams finding catchers.
