An Overview of U.S. relations with the South Caucasus
In early November, President Joe Biden met with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey to discuss a variety of issues. One of these issues was diplomatic efforts in the South Caucasus, which is a cause of tension between the United States and Turkey, especially since Biden made a speech recognizing the Armenian Genocide earlier in April.
Aside from discussing with other heads of state, United States’ relations with the South Caucasus are not discussed often. The US does not take much action in the region, so many assume that American officials are indifferent to the area. This is far from the case. The US is highly concerned about the South Caucasus region, but has a multitude of barriers preventing it from interacting in the region.
Georgia
The US sees Georgia as a strategic ally against Russia. While the two have economic ties and the US has provided Georgia with financial assistance, economic and democracy development, and security training, their relationship revolves primarily around NATO and joint military endeavors. While Georgia is not yet a member of NATO, recent talks have been outlining a path towards potential NATO membership, which has been Georgia’s goal since independence.[1] Georgia has been a faithful ally of the US in many of its military endeavors, being third in the number of troops contributed to the Iraq War and contributing the greatest number of troops per capita to Afghanistan.[2]
Georgia has certainly proven that it has what it takes to be a member of NATO. Many American politicians and foreign policy experts encourage letting Georgia into NATO, however this would mean war with Russia due to NATO Article 5. Many NATO allies are part of the EU, which has been staunchly anti-war. In addition, ever since the Iraq War, American citizens have become increasingly anti-war. In addition, nationalist rhetoric has spread an anti-war narrative with the idea that the nation needs to come first. Many NATO members, including the US, are conflicted on the amount of support to give Ukraine if it were to join NATO, with many opposing giving Ukraine arms to fight back against Russia.[3] If this is the case for Ukraine, it will be the case for Georgia. However, public and governmental opinion may be changing after witnessing the aftermath of Afghanistan.[4] As a result, there could be a change in this mentality, leading to possible future intervention.
Georgia is in a similar situation to Ukraine, where the USA can send its diplomatic support, but will not directly intervene to keep the peace with the rest of its NATO allies and its anti-war civilians. While the USA refrained from intervening in the conflict with Russia, it did send aid to Georgia and helped Georgia rebuild after the war. Throughout the changing administrations, the US has kept its unwavering promise to always support Georgia, but does this without directly antagonizing Russia. The US continues to support Georgia in whatever way it can, but cannot get too involved due to its other commitments.
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan is the US’s largest trading partner in the South Caucasus.[5] Relations between the two nations have been heavily dependent on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, on which the US tries to remain neutral. Otherwise, the two have cooperated economically and through NATO.
Azerbaijan could be a remarkable ally for the US. First, Azerbaijan’s oil industry is thriving and would greatly benefit the US. Second, fostering a good relationship with Azerbaijan could alleviate some tensions with another key American ally, Turkey, as Turkey and Azerbaijan share a strong brotherly bond. Azerbaijan would be a strong NATO ally if it were to join. Azerbaijan has been a part of the North Atlantic Cooperation Council since 1992, cooperating with NATO in both peacekeeping and non-military activities.[6]
In addition, the Ganja Gap, a narrow stretch of land cutting through the middle of Azerbaijan, is the only spot over a 3200-mile stretch between Asia and Europe where land trade take place while avoiding Russia and Iran.[7] Not only is this gap crucial to decrease Europe’s reliance on Russian oil, something that concerns American policy experts, but has been militarily crucial to the US in missions like Afghanistan and could be used for other missions like Syria.
Lastly, Azerbaijani officials are very skeptical of Putin and wary of Russia’s imperialistic policies. Azerbaijan seems friendly with Russia on the surface, but has created some distance between itself and its Northern neighbor. Due to Russia’s conflict with its neighbor, Georgia, as well Russia’s bond with its enemy, Armenia, Azerbaijan has every reason to be cautious. Azerbaijan has ignored Russian pressure to join the Eurasian Economic Union, refused to impose sanctions on Georgia and Ukraine after Russia’s invasions, and condemned Russia’s imperialistic policies.[8]
American-Azerbaijani relations could bring further prosperity to both nations, however it is unlikely that this relationship will reach its full potential due to the USA’s commitment to neutrality in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Armenia
Armenia is by far the most well-known South Ca ucasian country in the US. Americans hear the word “Armenia” through topics discussed on the news and through celebrity tabloids. The main reason is the large Armenian population that resides in the US, the majority of which resided in Los Angeles, thus Americans are exposed to numerous celebrities of Armenian descent such as the Kardashians and Cher. It is estimated that between 800,000 and 1 Million Armenians live in the US.[9] While only 35% of Americans are aware of the Armenian Genocide, the fact that everyday Americans are aware of Armenia’s existence shows the impact that Armenian Americans have made on the nation.[10]
While the American public has a favorable view of Armenia, the American government is hesitant to embrace the nation. Despite popular opinion and politicians speaking favorably of the nation, strong relations with Armenia would be disadvantageous from a strategic perspective. First, Armenia is a close ally of Russia. The two have strong military ties and Russia has military bases in Armenia.[11] Armenia is a part of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the Eurasian Economic Union, through which Russia maintains a strong grip over Armenia.
Second, Armenia complicates America’s already rocky relationship with its ally, Turkey. Turkey is a critical ally of the US, especially regarding NATO and Syria. Turkey contributes the largest amount of troops to NATO after the US and is the only nation currently standing against Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Erdogan was livid when the US officially recognized the Armenian Genocide in 2019, making tensions between the two even higher.
The United States’ dilemma with Armenia ties into the dilemma with Azerbaijan. Turkey has supported Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. If the US sides with Azerbaijan, it supports Turkey and mends relations, but betrays the millions of Armenians in the US and the American public. If the US sides with Armenia, NATO will suffer significantly as well as whatever interest the US has in Syria. In addition, rejecting Turkey could turn Erdogan’s interests towards Russia, which would be dangerous for the US. Thus, taking a side in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would only hurt the US.
While the hearts of American citizens and politicians lie with Armenia, it would be more strategically beneficial for the US to support Azerbaijan. Thus, the US is torn on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and will most likely continue to remain neutral.
The South Caucasus is a necessity to satisfy American foreign policy goals, however not the US cannot intervene in the region due to its commitments to its other allies. The US can’t intervene in Georgia due to its desire to keep peace with Russia to uphold the interests of its European allies. The US has to stay out of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict due to its turbulent relationship with Turkey. Intervening in the Caucasus is also likely to be met with public backlash. The US is cautious of the South Caucasus region, as it involves a tangled web of complicated relationships that can only end in dangerous drama.
While the US should engage more in the South Caucasus region, it is for the better that the US does not intervene in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. There are too many stakes involved and the United States will either lose the support of its crucial allies or the support of its people. It is most beneficial for the US to only engage economically with Armenia and Azerbaijan for now. However, the United States should take a leap and become more involved with Georgia. The United States should advocate for Georgia’s acceptance into NATO and provide Georgia with military support. The United States needs to stand with Georgia on the world stage and shouldn’t be afraid to face off against Russia. Through doing this, the US can show Putin that he can’t get away with invading and harassing whoever he wants. Whether it’s in Ukraine or Georgia, Russia needs to be disciplined to prevent further aggression, and the United States is the only country that can do that. Through this, the United States can help Georgia become less corrupt and more democratic as well.
Author- Courtney Weigal is a Fellow at the Caucasus-Asia Center.
[Disclaimer- The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Caucasus-Asia Center or its members.]
References
[1] Mestvirishvili, Natia, and Maia Mestvirishvili. “‘I Am Georgian And Therefore I Am European’: Researching The Europeanness Of Georgia.” Tbilisi State University (2016): n. pag. Print.
[2] Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs. U.S. Relations With Georgia. Washington DC: N.p., 2016.
[3] Simmons, Katie, Bruce Stokes, and Jacob Poushter. “NATO Public Opinion: Wary Of Russia, Leery Of Action On Ukraine.” Pew Research Center. N.p., 2015. Web. 25 Oct. 2021.
[4] Kopchick, Connor, and Shibley Telhami. “A Recent Poll Shows How Americans Think About The War In Afghanistan.” Brookings. N.p., 2020. Web. 25 Oct. 2021.
[5] “Economic Cooperation Between Azerbaijan And The United States.” Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the United States of America. N.p., 2021. Web. 25 Oct. 2021.
[6] “25 Years Of NATO — Azerbaijan Partnership: Director General Of NATO’S International Military Staff Visits Azerbaijan.” NATO. N.p., 2021. Web. 25 Oct. 2021.
[7] Coffey, Luke, and Efgan Nifti. “Why The West Needs Azerbaijan.” Foreign Policy. N.p., 2021. Web. 25 Oct. 2021.
[8] Ramani, Samuel. “Three Reasons The U.S. Won’T Break With Azerbaijan Over Its Violations Of Human Rights And Democratic Freedoms.” The Washington Post. N.p., 2016. Web. 25 Oct. 2021.
[9] Bittman, Mark. “This Armenian Life.” New York Times. N.p., 2013. Web. 25 Oct. 2021.
[10] Sassounian, Harut. “Sassounian: Only 35 Percent Of Americans Are Aware There Was An Armenian Genocide.” The Armenian Weekly. N.p., 2015. Web. 25 Oct. 2021.
[11] “Russian Base In Armenia Signals Role In Possible Karabakh War.” Ազատ Եվրոպա/Ազատություն» ռադիոկայան. N.p., 2013. Web. 25 Oct. 2021.
