Peace in the Middle East, lessons for Caucasus countries
Today the Middle East is no more the same as it used to be until some time back- i.e., a region excessively dependent on oil and gas export revenues, tribes/ powerful families vying to overwhelm one another with use of sheer force and deceit and ruling groups that held political resentment against the West/ state of Israel. Things across the Middle East are beginning to change and this change is widely visible on the streets, policy making quarters and even religious establishments. It is expected the outbreak of COVID-19 and plunge in global oil prices will further escalate the pace of such liberal and pro-market changes sweeping the region.
The Caucasus-Asia Center had the privilege to interview a prominent think tank professional Rasha Aljoundy. She presently works as a Senior Researcher b’huth (Dubai Public Policy Research Centre), where she also heads the Gulf Affairs section. In the past, Ms. Aljoundy has worked on senior positions with prominent think tanks based in UAE, like Orient Research Centre- Dubai and even in Europe, like with European Foundation for Democracy. She has a bachelor’s degree in law and a master’s degree in international relations. Importantly, she has good understanding of local sentiments and settings in different Middle East countries, even Syria for that fact. This enables her to substantiate her foresighted arguments about socio-political and economic developments in the region based on inputs from various primary sources.
Following what she has to answer to our questions:
Question 1. Do you think the COVID-19 pandemic has brought up any distinctive changes in the ways that countries in Middle East engage with one another? Here we mean to ask how you see the outbreak has impacted any prevailing pattern at the inter-country level.
The Pandemic lead to unprecedented changes, not just in the Middle East but in the world. It pushed decision-makers to have different priorities and different perspectives on many issues, especially on how to acquire protective equipment for first responders, and to overcome the availability of tests during the Pandemic. And this lead to more cooperation, crossing lines that wouldn’t be crossed before, but was possible on necessity and humanity grounds. The UAE sent Medical Equipment to countries in need, not only allies; for example, Iran was one of these countries. Humanity and cooperation prevailed, leaders were thinking of common destiny. The question is: would this mentality-changes prevail after the Pandemic or is it just a temporary calculation.
Question 2. The Middle East region still remains marred in different conflicts of various sorts, like ethnic clashes, incursions of armed Islamists, inter-state rivalries, etc. Apparently, some of these conflicts have escalated during the present hard times, like the longstanding Israel-Iran clash. How do you feel the conflicting parties need to work towards peace negotiation keeping into account the changing global realities and tough financial situation?
Like I mentioned before, the Pandemic brought about a different mentality, and countries should build on it to reach a future that reflects the hardship people had to endure to overcome this Pandemic. Countries should discuss their differences, agree to respect the national security of one another, and should believe in the vanity of conflicts, and wars. Iranians of 2020 are different from Iranians of 1979. In their aspirations, capabilities, and understanding of a prosperous country, the whole region’s youths need hope and opportunity from their governments. They are fighting corruption, even in Israel. In the end, everyone needs peace to accomplish anything they aspire. The United States is the one player that can pursue a regional negotiation that includes Israel, Iran, and the Gulf counties to put all disputed aspects on the table and reach a peaceful agreement that suits all parties. This kind of peace is a peace that could endure all circumstances and time. The US can also maintain the struggle by pursuing a half-hearted solution for a short time, as did with the JCPOA.
Question 3. What are your thoughts about the recently concluded Middle East peace agreement between Israel, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which has gained positive responses from different quarters worldwide? Do you see this normalization of ties with Israel can also lead to a broader peace process that revives the Arab Peace Initiative and addresses other political conflicts in the region?
United Arab Emirates’ quest to sign the Abraham accord has several objectives: First is political; Israel Annexation policy was concerning for the Gulf countries because it was making a two states solution harder and harder to maintain. Not having a viable solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would destabilize the region in the long-term and would put the Palestinians in an impossible situation and the regional states in a political crisis. Thus, if the Arab initiative fails, it would leave a void and gives terrorist organizations the ability to control the narrative. This point leads to the second objective: security; Iran and its Militias in the Middle East use the Palestinian issue to promote their role as the defender of Muslims and the Holly-land. They establish their hegemony on the Arab youth to maintain recruits’ flow to their cause and maintain a fractured society. Therefore, by eliminating the hatred factor from the Muslim-Jewish relation and transforming it into a cooperation, the UAE believes she can make a big jump towards peace and dismantle the long-lived narrative of war and animosity. The UAE is known for its tendency to grand, innovative dreams, and this is one of these visions that could transform the whole future of the region, but most certainly it changed the balance of power.
Question 4. The Caucasus region lies adjoining to the Middle East, with some parts of it even falling within the broad definition of Middle East (Greater Middle East). How do you see the Caucasian countries can develop deeper and more robust economic ties with Middle East countries, and especially UAE?
The Caucasus region is known for its stunning nature. Therefore tourism is an essential component, and the UAE has a great experience in advancing the hospitality sector to another level. Despite these times when this business is questionable on costs and revenue level because of the Pandemic. Nevertheless, traveling and exploring new places would always be part of human nature, and it will come back strongly. I think Caucasus Countries can attract investors from the UAE in the hospitality business and benefit from the UAE’s wide expatriate section to attract tourists by Introduction Media projects, Visa exemption, and deals. Dubai is the regional centre for hospitality success, and its experience could be benefited from.
Question 5. Would you like to share something about any ongoing or completed project undertaken by Bhuth that you think is worth presenting to the scholar-practitioner community working/ residing in the Caucasus?
Currently, in Bhuth we have a program called “GCC in a Multipolar World.” It looks at the shifts in the balance of power globally and studies its influence on the GCC countries’ role, both on the regional and international stage.
Question 6. You have been researching on security and Gulf affairs topics in your professional career that spans over many years. Please share with us some key findings from your research studies that you think needs to be taken note of by policy makers from different countries and EU institutions?
First, cooperation is a vital component in foreign affairs to accomplish perpetual peace and prosperity. On a regional level, it is essential to maintain a short supply chain during the Pandemic. Ensuring close relations with neighboring countries would make the difference between life and death. International Cooperation is crucial to face shared challenges either on economic or security levels. It wouldn’t be possible for Al-Qaeda or ISIS to be weakened or defeated without regional and international players coming together. Many goals can be accomplished with such enthusiasm, and it doesn’t need to be fighting terrorism or a Pandemic. Second, arrogant remarks and an orientalist view of the region causes disastrous results. This was apparent in Iraq in 2003 and in supporting the Muslim Brotherhood during the Arab-Spring and signing the JCPOA. Middle Eastern countries may not be one of the first world countries, but that doesn’t mean their social fabric, legacy, own convictions, and interests can be ignored without consequences. Sometimes these consequences can alter where the world is heading. All countries should be respected; all voices should be heard for the sake of peace, mutual interests should be nourished, and most importantly all misunderstanding should be avoided.
The Caucasus-Asia Center conveys sincere thanks to Rasha Aljoundy for sharing this interview.
