The war in Ukraine explained
Russia invaded Ukraine on the 24th of February, and the invasion has turned into a full-scale war in both the traditional and modern sense. It involves military assault of Ukraine by air, land, and sea, as well as the employment of hybrid tactics. On the 4th day of the war, Vladimir Putin put on high alert the nuclear arsenal of Russia as a deterrent measure, following the harsh sanctions and isolation of Russia by the West. On the other hand, Ukraine is not getting booed down in any way, and is putting up a much stronger fight that Putin may have imagined.
Two neighbors who share the same ancestry over a millennium, and a common history, who have similar language and follow the same church, are at odds again, engaged in a war that threatens the peace and security of the region and the world.
The cause of the tension arises from the fact that the West and Russia didn’t agree on post-Cold War “rules of the game” concerning the region, since no one expected that, for example, Ukraine would once like to join the EU, but the main threat to Russia is represented by a NATO country neighbouring its territory, which Russia perceives as a security threat. Furthermore, if Ukraine joins NATO, Russia loses its military base in Sevastopol, where the Black Sea Fleet is stationed, as the treaty states that foreign military forces cannot station in a NATO country, and therefore Russia loses its military presence in Ukraine, its grip on the Black Sea, and its influence on the region, and beyond, shrinks.
The course of the war
The war in Ukraine resembles a psychological war in the first 6 days, and the actual war had just begun on the 7th day of the invasion, with already too many victims, as civilians are targeted as well, and with more than half a million Ukrainians who fled the country.
The Russian president is facing an unexpected resistance. Both the Ukrainian military, the people in the country as well as good number of Russians joining the war, either directly at the war front or through other ways, are putting up an audacious fight against Russia in order to halt the war.
The EU and NATO are supplying arms and military equipment to Ukraine; as a response, Russia said in a statement, that the West should cope with the consequences of such an action. [i]
The EU has also closed its airspace for Russian aircraft, including private jets owned by oligarchs, so did the U.S., and showed a solidarity never seen before on a European scale, both in the condemnation of the war and in the application of the sweeping economic sanctions. The West banned seven Russian Banks from the Swift system, Switzerland froze the assets of Vladimir Putin, and two of his close friends. They also adopted measures that froze the reserves of the Russian Central Bank, and intend to limit the sale of Golden Passports to Russian oligarchs, and authorities throughout the EU are confiscating luxury assets of Russian oligarchs; just a few among many more other solidarity acts presented by the West.[ii] These sanctions aren’t supported by China, Moldova, Georgia and Serbia.
In the meantime, Ukraine has vehemently appealed to become an EU member — so did Moldova and Georgia. It has also called out for the investigation of war crimes committed against its civilians. Karim Khan, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, opened an investigation into events in Ukraine because he states —
“{…}There is a reasonable basis to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed{…}.”[iii]
Peace talks took place on the 28th of February in Gomel, Belarus, near the border with Ukraine, although not the first choice of Vladimir Zelenskiy, as Belarus is a close ally of Russia in the war against Ukraine, and Russia plans to place nuclear weapons in Belarus. Other peace talks have followed, and Israel is mediating between Ukraine and Russia, on the request of Ukraine, while there are concerns that the war could spread to Moldova, Georgia and the Western Balkans, especially to Serbia, and insurgencies might follow. And indeed, its influence has spread beyond Ukraine, Transnistria has asked the international community to recognize its independence.
The history of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
In 1991, following the dissolution of the URSS, Ukraine became an independent state, but tensions persisted as Russian political control and territorial interests still existed. Russia and Ukraine were still at odds over the control of the Black Sea, and especially over Crimea, which was a gift for Ukraine in 1954 by Nikita Khrushchev, who was of Ukrainian descent. Russia recognized in 1997 Ukraine’s borders, helped in a significant measure by the fact that Ukraine had a pro-Russian president. In the meantime, tensions were piling up between Russia and Ukraine over growing Western influence in the country, notably by Ukraine’s will to become NATO and EU member.
In 2010, Viktor Yanukovich, a pro-Russian leader was elected. In the same year, Ukraine had withdrawn its candidacy from NATO, and by 2013, from the European Union. The country’s political direction caused the massive protests in 2014, dubbed as the Maidan Revolution or the Revolution of Dignity, and this revolution lead to the illegal annexation of Crimea.
One month after the revolution, in March 2014, Russia occupied Crimea and triggered the biggest clash between the West and Russia since the end of the Cold War. In April 2014, Russian paramilitary forces occupied Donetsk and Luhansk in the Dombas region, while a ceasefire was reached only by February 2015.
Businessman Petro Poroshenko, a pro-Western party leader had yet won another set of elections and with parliamentary majority established, Ukraine resigned an association agreement with the EU in 2017. In the meantime, Russia holds a strong grip on Crimea, and in order to consolidate its position, they decided to build a bridge connecting the mainland with Crimea. On 21 February 2022, Russia recognized the Donbas People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic; also recognized by the breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
All these events lead to the invasion of Ukraine, an independent Easter European state, bordered by NATO and the EU.
Was Ukraine part of Russia?
Kiev, the capital city of Ukraine was home to the first Eastern-Slavic state in history.[iv] “Russians and Ukrainians are essentially the same intermingled people inhabiting an area first settled by Scandinavians”, states Jonathan Power. [v]
This is the land where both Russians and Ukrainians built their national identity, therefore, Kiev has a particular significance for both Russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine was conquered and absorbed by the Russian Empire in the 18th century. Wary by the rise of Ukrainian Nationalism, the Tsars prohibited the use of the Ukrainian language by 1840. As the Tsars were dethroned by 1922, Russia became known as the Soviet Union. Ukraine remained part of the Soviet Union and the Ukrainians experienced bitter treatment under Joseph Stalin. The Second World War deepened the schism between Ukraine and Russia because many Ukrainians fought with the Nazis. Ukraine became independent as the Cold War ended.
In the words of Vladimir Putin: “Since time immemorial, the people living in the southwest of what has historically been Russian land have called themselves Russians and Orthodox Christians…” says Vladimir Putin in a speech on Feb. 21. “Modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik, Communist Russia. This process started practically right after the 1917 revolution, and Lenin and his associates did it in a way that was extremely harsh on Russia — by separating, severing what is historically Russian land.”[vi]
What does Putin want?
Putin wants a swift victory in Ukraine, just like in Georgia in 2008 and in Crimea in 2014; he doesn’t want a long-lasting war in Ukraine, though, according to Emmanuel Macron, this is a possibility too, depending on how negotiations go.
Putin wants to install a pro-Russian government in Ukraine and wants to create a buffer state between Russia and the West. As requested during the peace talks, he wants Ukraine to recognize Crimea as part of Russia, and another demand is that Ukraine doesn’t join NATO.
Russia sees NATO’s and EU’s advancement as an encroachment into Russia’s “near abroad”, endangering its influence in the region, and representing a threat to its security and national interests.
Russia seeks to change the post-Cold War setup in Europe’s east, but also wants to be recognized as a great power and it is willing to wage wars to this end, for example the one in Syria — one of the reasons why control over the Black Sea is so important — and therefore, Putin’s desire to return Russia to the height of its global influence as it was during the Soviet Union should not be ignored either.
Conclusion
Surprisingly, Ukraine under the leadership of Zelenskiy, has put up a diehard fight against Russia as this current war beyond reason had been continuing for a month now. In the meantime, Zelenskiy asks for tougher sanctions against Russia.
The UN secretary-general, António Guterres, says this war in “unwinnable”, and that Ukrainians are enduring “living hell”, while the reverberations are felt all over the world, and the number of refugees has reached 3 million.
Skyrocketing food, energy and fertilizer prices could spiral into a global hunger crisis, while developing nations are already suffocating under the burden of covid.
In Guterres’s view ”This war isn’t winnable. Sooner or later it will have to move from the battlefields to the peace table.
That is inevitable. The only question is how many more lives must be lost? How many more bombs must fall? How many Mariupols must be destroyed or many more Ukrainians and Russians will be killed?”[vii]
Author- Maria Rusu is a Coordinator at the Caucasus-Asia Center.
[Disclaimer- The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Caucasus-Asia Center or its members.]
References
[i] Russia says it could target Western arms supplies to Ukraine, Al JAzeera,
Russia says it could target Western arms supplies to Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
[ii] The list of global sanctions on Russia for the war in Ukraine, by Michelle Toh, Yonko Ogura etc., CNN,
The list of global sanctions on Russia for the war in Ukraine — CNN
[iii] Statement of ICC Prosecutor, Karim A.A.Khan QC, on the situation in Ukraine: “I have decided to proceed with opening an investigation.”,International Criminal Court,
[iv] Kiev as the “mother of Russian cities”: Fact or fiction?, Russia Beyond, Kiev as the ‘mother of Russian cities’: Fact or fiction? — Russia Beyond (rbth.com)
[v] Historically, Ukraine is Russia, By Jonathan Power, The Citizen, Historically, Ukraine is Russia — The Citizen
[vi] Modern Ukraine entirely created by Russia-read full text of Vladimir Putin’s speech, The Print, ‘Modern Ukraine entirely created by Russia’ — read full text of Vladimir Putin’s speech (theprint.in)
[vii] Ukraine war is ‘unwinnable’, UN chief says, The Guardian, US condemns Moscow’s refusal to rule out use of nuclear weapons — as it happened | World news | The Guardian
