Seeing beyond the storm clouds

An overheated economy is starting to cool off, thrashed by inflation, global conflict, untenable appreciation in real estate, you name it. Just in time for what may have been our first real post-pandemic-ish summer, we’ve now got a million other things to worry about.

Nowhere is this being felt more quickly or acutely than in the tech and tech-adjacent worlds, where reliably red-hot stocks have turned into rollercoasters (not the fun ones — the ones that make you throw up and pass out) and layoffs have already begun. Sequoia Capital is calling this a “crucible moment” for startups. Jamie Dimon says that an “economic hurricane” is coming straight for us.

But history has taught us that these moments don’t last, and that fortune favors the bold. Just as fashion designers show their latest winter collections in spring, we must all be thinking two moves ahead, now more than ever.

A prudent first step is to simply make sure that your finances are configured to weather a downturn, of course. No one would argue with that. But what comes next? “Business as usual, just with less spending” isn’t the kind of philosophy geared to take advantage of the inevitable next boom economy, whether that comes six months or two years from now.

So I’ve developed a quick checklist that I would encourage any business owner or decision maker to consider using in this moment:

1. Write your purpose and vision on a whiteboard. (If you don’t have these, they don’t feel right for where your company stands today, or you don’t know what they are, let’s talk.)

2. Beneath, in broad strokes, list your company’s business ventures. Don’t list business functions here like HR or IT. You’re looking for your product and service categories.

3. Now, the hard part: for each business venture, reflect on how aligned it is with your purpose and vision. For example, if you are a global beverage brand whose vision mentions creating “a more sustainable business and better shared future that makes a difference in people’s lives, communities and our planet,” this could be a valuable moment to scrutinize your place in a deeply flawed plastic recycling ecosystem.

4. For those ventures where you sense misalignment — even a little bit — develop workstreams to address. This will look different for everyone and every situation: it could take the form of a Start-Stop-Continue exercise with the relevant team, it could mean shifting resources to another venture, or it could mean taking a second look at your purpose and vision statements.

5. Finally, ask: is there anything that isn’t on the board that needs to be? A downturn can feel like an odd moment to be thinking through new ventures. But remember that you always need to believe to your very core in your purpose and vision — and that once you do, you need to be executing against them. Harvard Business Review’s Great Recession-era article “Seize Advantage in a Downturn” touches on some of this, including how Apple kept executing on Steve’s vision through the 2001–2003 recession to release the iPod mini and iPod Photo.

The purpose of this exercise is not to kill or start lines of business willy-nilly just because a recession may be drawing near — instead, it’s a chance to crystallize the practical applications of your purpose and vision, and to rally every part of your brand around them.

It is tempting to delay these sorts of “soft strategy” activities until those moments when money is pouring in and you see nothing but blue skies on the horizon. But by tackling this now, at a moment of stress and belt-tightening, you are being intentional about ensuring that your entire organization is running in the same direction at a critical time. Misaligned work isn’t just dead weight, it is actively fighting against your success and your brand’s reputation.

And if any of this seems daunting, I am here to help. Let’s chat.

Anita Stubenrauch is an ex-Apple creative and the founder of Cause:Effect Creative, an agency that helps brands express visionary ideas with poetic power.