Why Saudi Arabia Should Rethink its Security Spending
March 13, 2018
Adapted from the work of Anthony Cordesman, CSIS: cs.is/2FCxxdc
“Saudi Arabia has been spending far too large a portion of its economy on security priorities that have yielded uncertain results. Saudi Arabia must better balance its civil and national security spending by reducing its security spending and using its resources more effectively.”
Saudi Arabia‘s Security Threats and Challenges
An extremist threat beyond ISIS
- Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula continues to target Saudi Arabia and the threat of new attacks is likely to continue indefinitely.
Domestic instability due to sectarian Sunni-Shi’ite tensions
- Saudi Arabia has not yet shown that it can deal effectively with the rising level of Sunni and Shi’ite tensions that have had a major impact in Bahrain, Iran, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia’s own Shiite minority.
A Houthi threat in Yemen
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE are fighting the Houthi in a deeply divided Yemen.
Iran’s efforts to improve its ballistic and cruise missiles, and acquire nuclear weapons
- Iran is actively seeking to give its ballistic missiles the level of accuracy and/or lethality to do major damage to major military and infrastructure targets.
Iran’s expanding influence in the region
- Iran’s growing influence includes ties to the Hezbollah in Lebanon; Palestinian elements in Gaza; the Assad regime in Syria and more.
The uncertain situation in Iraq
- Iraq has gone through 15 years of instability, a civil war, and a major invasion by ISIS. Saudi Arabia has never fully committed itself to trying to win influence in Iraq.
A divided and Assad/Russian dominated Syria
- Saudi Arabia did not respond effectively in Syria during the time Assad might have been driven from power by moderate elements.
An unstable Lebanon with a hostile Hezbollah and Iranian influence
- Saudi Arabia has not been able to choose a stable approach to limit Hezbollah and Iranian influence in Lebanon or work with the Lebanese government and armed forces.
The Kingdom’s most critical challenge — and priority for maintaining and improving its internal security — is to properly educate, employ, and support the steady flow of young men and women that will form a “youth bulge” for at least the next decade.
Cutting Back to Reasonable Levels
The challenge Saudi Arabia must now meet is to find ways to shape both its security and civil programs and budgets to meet its highest priority needs in affordable ways.
Bringing Saudi security expenditures and programs into balance with its needs for civil development and reform will take time and should be carefully phased over a period of years.
Focusing on Seven Key Security Objectives
Saudi Arabia should deal with seven critical external security objectives in the process if it is to bring security costs down to the proper levels:
- Find affordable ways to deter and contain Iran
- Find an affordable way to end Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen
- Find a workable compromise with Qatar, revise the Gulf Cooperation Council
- Give Iraq incentives to create a Gulf security structure
- Make Jordan a full security partner, support the Lebanese government to counter Hezbollah, and isolate the Assad regime in Syria
- Focus on providing the resources for three critical weaknesses in its current security forces: theater missile defense, naval and air forces better designed to check Iran’s asymmetric threat, and border defenses and security barriers to guard its border with Yemen.
- Create a de facto joint force planning, exercise, and contingency capability with the United States
“There is no royal road to achieving any of these objectives. Both Saudi Arabian leaders and those of its partners need to realize that Saudi civil stability and development is the core priority, not building up Saudi military forces or using Saudi Arabia as a cash cow for arms buys, fund aid, or meeting other security objectives.”
Adapted from the work of Anthony Cordesman, CSIS: cs.is/2FCxxdc
