Race to replace Madden in redrawn 4th District may be close, experts say
By Janel “Jaycee” Miller
Sen. Fred Madden’s decision to retire from the seat he has held for nearly 20 years sets the stage for a tight race in the 4th Legislative District election Nov. 7, several political observers say.
Since 2000, Democrats have “almost always won in the 4th District due to the demographic and political characteristics of the district,” said Shauna Lani Shames, an associate professor of political science at Rutgers University.
But “statisticians believe that the recent redistricting will have made the district somewhat more competitive,” she said.
“Both sides seem confident, but cautiously confident,” said Ben Dworkin, founding director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship. “The seats can really be decided by just a couple hundred votes. It is going to come down to each side’s get-out-the-vote effort.”
The election marks the first statewide balloting since the 4th District was redrawn. Chesilhurst Borough, as well as Gloucester, Monroe, Washington and Winslow townships remain in the redrawn district. Clementon, Laurel Springs, Lindenwold and Pitman boroughs were dropped from the previous drawing of the district. Added were Buena Vista, Franklin and Waterford townships, and Newfield and Buena boroughs.
As a result, there are fewer Black voters and more predominantly Republican municipalities than before, raising the suspense that could hang over the race, Dworkin said.
“When you look at the numbers of how many registered from one party, how many registered from another, this becomes even more competitive,” he said in an interview.
Dworkin singled out abortion rights, environmental issues — like offshore wind energy sources, gas stoves and electric vehicle policies — as well as school policies on LGBTQ+ students as some of the critical issues in the 4th District.
None of the Senate candidates –- Democrat and current State Assemblyman Paul Moriarty, Republican and chief commercial officer of a local business Christopher Del Borrello and Conservative Giuseppe Costanzo — responded to multiple attempts to obtain their positions on these issues.
The home page of Del Borrello’s official campaign website showed intentions to “balance land preservation with sensible economic growth” and “empower parents to raise their children according to their own values.”
The home page of Moriarty’s website stated viewpoints of “supporting our local businesses and workforce, prioritizing renewable energy” and did not mention students who are LGBTQ+.
Although neither candidate’s home page referenced abortion, the Planned Parenthood Action Fund of New Jersey endorsed Moriarty and Dan Hutchinson (a Gloucester Township councilman) and Cody Miller (the foundation and alumni relations director at Rowan College of South Jersey), who are the Democrats running for State Assembly in the district.
An official campaign website for Costanzo could not be located. Earlier this week, NJ Spotlight’s David Cruz reported that South Jersey Democrats may have Costanzo running a phantom campaign to take votes away from Del Borello.
Cutting property taxes — a perennial election issue — lowering property taxes, seems to have lost some importance among Republicans, Dworkin said. In September, Forbes ranked New Jersey as having the highest property taxes in the country.
“They are not talking about taxes in the same way as they would usually… because all these other issues have emerged,” Dworkin said of the candidates.
The State Assembly race puts the Democrats Hutchinson and Miller, against the Republicans Amanda Esposito (a Pitman Middle School teacher) and Matthew Walker (a union engineer and a member of the U.S. Navy Reserves) and Conservative Maureen Dukes Penros. None of these candidates responded to multiple requests for an interview.
The Democrats are coordinating their campaigns, as are the Republicans, suggesting that if elected, they would vote similarly to the respective Senate candidate for each party. An official campaign website for Dukes Penrose could not be located.
The outcome of the 4th District election could play a key role in which party controls the State Senate and Assembly, political observers said.
“Because NJ as a whole is becoming more racially/ethnically diverse, District 4 is also a good barometer of possible future trends for the state as a whole,” Shames said.
Dworkin added: “District 4 is much more suburban (than Camden’s district) and has been voting Democratic, but has also voted Republican. … The Republicans have to find places to win those seats. If they are going to get the majority, that is going to come through this district.”
Janel “Jaycee” Miller is a freelance writer for TAPinto Camden, TAPinto Mount Laurel and 70and73.com.
This article was published as part of NJ Decides 2023, a collaborative news project covering the 2023 legislative elections. Funded by the New Jersey Civic Information Consortium, the project includes New Jersey news organizations large and small and comprises articles on individual races and broader issues, as well as the NJ Voters Guide.
