A Virus within NATO: Mistrust and the COVID-19 Pandemic
By Andrew J. Furlan
The malicious virus of mistrust may already have infected The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but the COVID-19 pandemic will likely increase its lethality. The success of NATO, an alliance built upon the collective defence, relies on trust — each member-state must believe that the others will fulfil their treaty obligations. Yet by publicly casting aspersions at NATO, United States (US) President Donald Trump has raised doubts regarding the US’s commitment to the organization. Unable to rely upon the alliance’s lynchpin member-state, French President Emmanuel Macron ominously declared in November that NATO was experiencing “brain death.” Noting the alliance’s precarious position made me think: how might the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbate this mistrust? Will the pandemic expedite Macron’s mortal prognosis of the alliance?
The Virus
Though stark and foreboding, President Macron’s evaluation of NATO did not appear suddenly. Tensions between the US and its NATO allies have dramatically increased since President Trump’s election in 2016, weakening the alliance. From the outset, President Trump has made NATO a target of his public criticism, chastising NATO allies for not meeting their agreement to maintain two per cent of GDP defence expenditure. President Trump’s displeasure over the expenditure issue reached a crescendo in 2017 at the NATO Brussels summit when he declined to affirm Article Five of the alliance’s treaty. Due in part to his pressure, the defence expenditure of most member-states has increased over the past few years, and by almost five percent in 2019. Indeed, in a December tweet President Trump triumphantly declared victory on this front.
The economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will reopen this acrimonious issue, however. The shuttering of all but essential industries, coupled with a historic depression in oil prices, has left global economies reeling. With such ubiquitous and significant economic damage, NATO member-states will likely not have the political nor financial capital to meet the defence expenditure threshold. Consequently, this issue will again return to further erode the alliance.
Furthermore, the mistrust bred by President Trump has led to an insular trend among some European member-states. As President Macron noted, European member-states are increasingly viewing themselves “strategically as a geopolitical power” distinct from the US and broader international organizations. This insular strategic model, of course, is antithetical to the notion of a broad international alliance such as NATO. President Trump’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic has further demonstrated to European member-states his tenuous commitments to his allies and multilateral organizations. In March, amidst increasing pandemic fears, Germany’s Health Ministry acknowledged that President Trump had sought to purchase and relocate the research wing of CureVac — a German-based medical company — to the US. President Trump wanted the company to produce a vaccine “for the US only.” Such direct undermining of a NATO ally during an international crisis will sow further mistrust, reinforcing insular European strategic thinking. Moreover, in April President Trump declared that the US would end its funding of the World Health Organization. This move echoes President Trump’s November threat to reduce funding to NATO. President Trump’s fondness for slashing funding to multilateral organizations, particularly during an international crisis, will be regarded by European member-states as an overture to further reductions in multilateral commitments. Therefore, the COVID-19 pandemic will quicken the spread of mistrust within NATO. Put simply, the virus is the abrogation of multilateralism.
The Treatment
Although the COVID-19 pandemic may lead to a further deterioration in trust between NATO member-states, the present crisis also presents unique opportunities for strengthening the alliance.
In an interview with The Times in January of 2017, President Trump referred to NATO as “obsolete.” While he later had a characteristic volte-face, stating that NATO was “no longer obsolete,” it is evident that President Trump does not appreciate NATO’s strategic importance in global affairs. However, the COVID-19 pandemic may allow President Trump to understand the alliance’s value. President Trump clearly regards the events surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic as a geopolitical event between the US and China. Indeed, President Trump — who describes himself as a “wartime president” and referred to the pandemic as an “[attack] worse than Pearl Harbor” — is rhetorically evoking a sense of wartime urgency, levelled directly at China. In March, President Trump began calling COVID-19 the “Chinese virus” and more recently, amongst his claims that the virus may have spawned in a Chinese laboratory and was negligently handled by Chinese authorities, he is considering more aggressive economic measures against the country. It is within this geopolitical struggle that NATO can display its value to President Trump. NATO must present itself to President Trump as an essential asset in the US’s strategic posture towards China. If President Trump views NATO in this capacity, he may understand the alliance’s geopolitical merits, greatly assuaging the festering mistrust. Assuaging mistrust through incentivizing renewed engagement is the cure.
Mistrust has led NATO to morbidity. In President Macron’s words, the alliance is on “the edge of a precipice.” Though this malady did not originate because of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has exacerbated mistrust, inching the alliance towards the edge. Yet, the pandemic also presents opportunities to inoculate the alliance against further attenuation. If NATO utilizes these unique opportunities, perhaps the course of the virus of mistrust will begin to reverse.
Andrew is a law student at the University of Cambridge, with a particular interest in international law and commercial law. He graduated from Queen’s University in 2019, where he majored in Political Studies and minored in Classics. Get in contact with Andrew on LinkedIn.
