China’s Rise and the Global Order: Implications for Middle Powers Like Canada
By: Anjana Balachandran, University of Ottawa
In modern history, few events have reshaped the global landscape as profoundly as China’s meteoric rise. From its economic prowess to its expanding military footprint, China’s ascent has compelled nations to recalibrate their foreign policies and strategies. Middle powers like Canada face challenges and opportunities in this evolving world order. How can Canada adapt to the implications of China’s emergence as a global power and chart a path forward in this new geopolitical reality?
The story of China’s rise is deeply rooted in its post-1978 trajectory. Under Deng Xiaoping’s leadership, China transformed from a predominantly agrarian society to an economic giant. This change occurred against the backdrop of a post-WWII international order established by Western powers. The post-WWII order, also shaped significantly by the Soviet Union, led to a world bifurcated by Cold War rivalries, establishing distinct spheres of influence and norms by both superpowers and their allies. This order, characterized by established norms and institutions, now finds itself at a crossroads with China’s growing influence.
This era introduced critical institutions and frameworks, such as the United Nations Charter’s sovereignty, the Bretton Woods system for monetary stability; and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), a precursor to the World Trade Organization (WTO), all promoting a liberal economic order and the values of human rights and democracy. As China ascends, it challenges both the Western-led hegemony and the bipolar tensions remnants, underscoring the international order’s complexity and the nuanced dynamics of global power shifts. This progression challenges established norms and institutions, testing the resilience of the global framework established in the aftermath of WWII and reflecting the profound implications of China’s rise on both the legacy of Western influence and the remnants of Cold War-era divisions.
Historically, Canada-China relations, rooted in the era of Pierre Trudeau, have seen their fair share of fluctuations, swinging between periods of mutual cooperation and times of palpable tension. This multifaceted relationship has broadened over the years to encompass not just trade but also cultural, academic, and sports exchanges. Despite this expansion, the relationship has encountered its share of challenges. Notably, during the tenure of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, relations experienced a degree of turbulence, characterized by a more cautious and sometimes critical stance towards China on issues ranging from human rights to foreign investment and security concerns. This period saw moments of strain, such as delayed high-level visits and public criticisms that underscored the complexities of bilateral engagement.
Economic interactions between Canada and China have undeniably been pivotal, with China’s rapid growth positioning it as an essential trading partner for Canada. This economic bond was formalized through agreements like the Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (FIPA), aimed at enhancing bilateral investment flows. However, the economic dimension of this relationship has not been without its challenges. For instance, Canada experienced a noticeable decline in its exports to China in 2020, a setback attributed to a combination of the global pandemic’s disruptions and escalating political tensions. These factors contributed to what can be described as ‘economic turbulence’, where the previously steady growth in trade and investment faced sudden and significant headwinds, reflecting the broader uncertainties in the international political economy and the specific bilateral frictions that can impact economic ties.
China’s challenge to the established order is multifaceted. with China’s pivotal role in global supply chains and its initiation of alternative multilateral initiatives. Economically, with China’s pivotal role in global supply chains and its initiation of alternative multilateral initiatives like the Belt and Road have expanded China’s global footprint. Politically, China’s contributions to the United Nations and regional forums signal its aspirations for a multipolar world. Militarily, activities in the South China Sea and beyond highlight its expanding ambitions. Furthermore, China’s cultural and soft power initiatives aim to project its values and narratives, presenting an alternative to Western ideologies.
In the 21st century’s digital universe, where data and information work as powerhouses, cybersecurity has emerged as a critical aspect of international relations. The shift from traditional to cyber warfare has fundamentally changed the definition of ‘attack’. State-sponsored cyber-attacks have escalated, leading to advanced persistent threats to digital infrastructure and commerce systems. Despite this, public awareness of state actors’ cyber operations remains limited.
The 2010 Stuxnet attack on Iran’s nuclear program, for example, exemplifies the shift in power dynamics within the international power structure. Since then, the cyber warfare landscape has rapidly evolved, outpacing regulatory responses. Nations and intelligence alliances like Five Eyes have increasingly incorporated cybersecurity experts into their defence mechanisms. NATO’s acknowledgment of cybersecurity’s pivotal role in international conflicts, notably its declaration in 2014 that severe cyberattacks could trigger Article 5[1], reflects the increasing reliance on digital expertise in state-led cyber operations. However, there remains high uncertainty in how international bodies categorize and address cyber espionage in this rapidly changing landscape.
Security concerns have become prominent in the Canada-China relationship, with the South China Sea dispute epitomizing the geopolitical challenges posed by China’s ascent. As China asserts its territorial claims and expands its military presence, Canada faces a complex diplomatic landscape, advocating for peaceful resolutions while navigating China’s aggressive stance.
For Canada, a nation traditionally aligned with Western powers, these developments present a conundrum. Balancing economic opportunities with security concerns in light of China’s growing influence is a delicate diplomatic task. Canada’s reliance on international alliances, such as NATO, plays a crucial role in maintaining the balance of power and upholding a rules-based global order.
A critical aspect of Canada-China relations is the ethical dilemma posed by human rights concerns, particularly in regions like Hong Kong and Xinjiang. These issues place Canada in a position where it must weigh its economic interests against its commitment to human rights, indicative of the broader challenges nations face when engaging with superpowers like China. The crackdown following the 2019 Hong Kong protests and the severe human rights abuses reported in Xinjiang, including mass detentions of Uighur Muslims, present significant challenges for Canada. These situations reflect the broader difficulty of maintaining strategic relations with China while adhering to fundamental human rights principles, necessitating a nuanced and principled approach in Canada’s foreign policy to navigate these contentious issues effectively.
The era of China’s dominance in the global order is not a fleeting moment but a lasting reality. For nations like Canada, this necessitates a strategic, nuanced approach. By understanding the challenges, seizing opportunities, and staying true to its values, Canada can safeguard its interests and play a constructive role in shaping the global narrative. Looking towards the future, the trajectory of Canada-China relations remains uncertain. Canada must strategically balance its economic interests and security concerns with its commitment to human rights and the challenges posed by China’s global ascent. This involves diversifying economic partnerships, strengthening traditional alliances, and engaging in multilateral diplomacy.
The Canada-China relationship is emblematic of the challenges and opportunities that characterize modern international relations. As the global landscape continues to shift, Canada’s ability to adapt, engage, and maintain a balanced approach with China will be crucial in shaping its international standing. This relationship, with its historical depth and contemporary complexities, will undoubtedly continue to be a key factor in Canada’s foreign policy and global strategy.
