Prediction markets are coming to Cheeze Wizards!

Chain of Insight
Published in
7 min readNov 19, 2019


1189 just got molded!

COI will soon be releasing Cheeze Wizards prediction markets on Augur! These markets will allow you to bet ETH on outcomes of dueling and mold events in the tournament. For example, you’ll be able to bet on whether the power of a specific wizard will increase or if they’ll be molded!

“Okay, but what’s Augur?”

Augur is a decentralized protocol that allows for peer-to-peer powered prediction markets. The Protocol was created by the Forecast Foundation, but they do not actually manage markets, hold funds, or facilitate trades. Instead, users transact themselves, directly and peer to peer over the Ethereum network.

Augur markets are about to enter the Cheeze Wizards fray! (source: Augur)

“Cool! Um, what does that mean?”

Augur allows you trade across prediction markets, letting spectators make bets on the outcomes of future events. Aggregated crowd wisdom is a surprisingly effective way to make estimates, it works by incentivizing participants to contribute knowledge to the collective pool of wisdom by rewarding them for correct predictions.

Recent market stats from a current Augur market (source: Augur)

Enter the Cheeze Markets!

We’re watching the mold carefully, anxiously awaiting the best time to launch our first market ⏰. Because creating a market will lock up funds (while waiting for market resolution), we want to be careful not to launch markets too early.

Breaking it down like mold

Trading across peer-to-peer markets requires liquidity, and mold growth is exponential, so we need to avoid tying up funds in ill liquid markets that benefit nobody. Here’s a few things we believe could lead to the creation of ill liquid, or less exciting markets:

1. Wizard is not at risk of being consumed by mold
2. Owner has other Wizards they can transfer power to
3. Not enough Wizards removed from the tournament

In case #1 there is no requirement for the Wizard to actually duel, which incentivizes shorting the market since it’s hedged in favour of the Wizard doing nothing. Something similar is happening in case #2 as well. There are times when it makes more sense to dodge the mold increase by consolidating some of your power. It’s not guaranteed to happen, but does hedge heavily in favour of shorting the market.

In case #3, it becomes a question of how well our markets will perform in a situation where most people haven’t yet lost their stake in the tournament. We see our prediction markets as a way to win back some money you’ve lost after having been removed from the tournament completely. It’s also a way to remain invested in following the final developments of the Big Cheeze 🧀 prize!

Cheeze Wizards 🧀 duel stats from November 12

Enter the Duelists!

To create a bit of fight hype 🤼 🥊 we reached out to our favourite duelists and asked them, cheeze willing, to shed their insight on strategy and approach to dueling.


1353 always looks like they’ve just received some bad news 😂

Known for:
— Holding some of the highest win rates of anyone
— Tweeting out trash talk


3313 is a strong candidate for top duelist

Known for:
— Crushing Rohamg from Dapper Labs, in a now legendary duel
— Consistently holding top rank in the tournament on not just one, but multiple Wizards


Son chapeau est fou

Known for:
— Owning one of the first Wizards to reach 10k power
— Selling most of their power on then dueling back up to the top ranks quickly

(Note: we spoke with TEN1000🍰🧀 as well)

Q: Are turn randomizers currently on your radar? Are they a determining factor right now, and what about long term?

Haha ya actually! I lost 2k power versus someone who claims they used a randomizer 😠. Randomizers benefit whales who can afford to take multiple losses and keep challenging you. If you whalin’ out just roll dat dice till you gain yer power back. Less and less impact long term, cause you can only afford to roll the dice when you can afford a losing streak :)

Nope and nope

Yes, eventually people are going to figure out a pattern to how you think, if you play them enough, and it’s a long tournament. Its worth lower odds imo.

Hrmm! Very interesting indeed. TEN1000🍰🧀 also hinted to us that maybe the best form of randomness in Cheeze Wizards is manually crafted to suit your given situation

Q: Any opinion on baiting (casting one way for a while then switching to the opposite to catch your opponent off guard)?

Grinding up ELO takes long, but falling or losing everything happens in a heartbeat. So why risk baiting?
The idea is you intentionally lose power over several matches then win it all back (and then some) in a single duel that’s flawlessly executed. Sounds risky right? Except it’s not, cause people can split their wizards across 2 or more accounts to bait duels against their self without actually losing power. Notice how this strat simultaneously creates baits on 2 accounts, both under your control. Like damn.

Also, not much difference between “baiting” and “adjusting your strategy” after you fell into a pattern AMIRITE?

That works well if you have a lot of wizards to spare, or you are dueling with low powered wizards. It won’t work in any other case.

Is there a point to baiting if you are going to risk a lot more losses to just set up the pattern? Then you have one chance to change your pattern, but what if the opponent doesn’t take it?

Q: Are you careful about selecting challenges, or is anyone fair game?

This was an interesting question (or not?) depending on where your head is at regarding the meta. 🧀Entr0py🍰 was a bit coy but, reading between the lines, it seemed all three duelists generally agreed duels should be selected carefully but also you should duel a diverse amount of players to remain sharp!

“Walk like a champion, talk like a champion” — Buju Banton

You messin’ with the champ, of course anyone is fair game! If I declined your challenge consider it the biggest compliment you can receive in Cheeze Wizards. I could duel nevverlander or TheRealDickWang now. I might learn about their strategy, but they’ll learn about my strategy. I rather face them in the late game.

I am more careful and strategic now compared to the initial phases of the tournament. I try to play as many different players as possible

There’s a short list of people who I’ve lost to a few times. I won’t go back to the well unless I have to later in the tournament.

Wrapping it up in wax

Finally, we gave each summoner a unique question designed just for them. For 🧀Entr0py🍰 we asked “Anything else you want to say to all the “fans” who voted for you on Strawpoll?” to which they simply replied “Nah” and promptly left the chat 😂

Q (nevverlander): You like to duel yourself huh? Is that a strategy?

Just my attempts to redistribute power amongst my wizards. Now I know about the COI simulation, you won’t see too many self duels from me.

(Excellent point here from nevverlander! Haven’t played a duel simulation yet?

Here’s an interesting one you can try:

That’s one of 🧀Entr0py🍰’s Neutral Wizards vs. one of TEN1000🍰🧀’s Neutrals.)

Q (TheRealDW): Impressive how you sold most of your power then quickly dueled your way back to the top! What value does buying power provide if someone can remain competitive after losing their power and just grinding?

(RealDW came in hard on this one. Very thoughtful answer that seems to us to have the ring of truth to it)

Power is fickle. It takes a lot of wins to build up but is easy to lose in just one loss. Also important is your time. Many people are dueling for maybe 30 power realistically if they are just fighting 70 Power wizards. That’s like five bucks that you are playing for. In exchange for a few bucks you are spending time grinding while revealing your strategy. Buying power is buying peace of mind, to avoid facing the blue mold for a while, and a strategic advantage. You really get time to study how everyone else reacts before making a move.

Being a high powered wizard was nice because you could bully smaller wizards. They need to win two duels just to gain any power sometimes which helps the odds. Also, you can make much more in each Duel playing for higher stakes.