Bitcoin will make you filthy rich, cure cancer and prevent earthquakes!!!

Forget the ongoing bitcoin crash. Forget that you lost 80 percent of your crypto wealth since Christmas last year. If you HODL, Crypto Santa will make you filthy rich by Christmas next year.

But it’s not only about money. The awesome blockchain technology of bitcoin will revolutionize politics, culture, and science.

The superior forms of economic and social interaction provided by blockchain technology will solve society and politics in no time. Corruption, toxic culture wars, oppression, nationalism, war and hunger will soon become things of the past thanks to a blockchain near you.

It has been luminously demonstrated that blockchain technology streamlines record keeping and IoT sensor networks. Since blockchain-based record keeping boosts the efficiency of healthcare data management in hospitals and biomedical research centers, and IoT sensor networks are used for seismic monitoring, it follows that blockchain technology will soon cure cancer and prevent earthquakes.

If you aren’t persuaded by this watertight argument, then you don’t understand the power of blockchain technology.

Don’t forget Artificial Intelligence (AI). Experts are persuaded that we’ll have blockchain-based, smarter-than-human strong AI in only a few years, and the AIs will create heaven on earth and beyond. Blockchain technology will cure death and colonize the stars.

Back to bitcoin, just hodl. HODL, for fuck’s sake. The crash is temporary and insignificant. I predict that the price of one bitcoin will rise back to $20,000 by Christmas. Then $50,000. Then $100,000. By Christmas next year, I am confident that one bitcoin will be worth $1 million. Just hodl. HODL. HODL!!!

Same for ethereum and other cryptos of course.

Now the unpleasant truth

You’ve understood (I really hope so) that what I’ve said so far is total bullshit.

I’m making fun of some ridiculous headlines and “arguments” that plague the crypto space.

Who am I to mock some fellow crypto enthusiasts? Well, chances are that I’ve been in the crypto space longer than them. I read Satoshi’s white paper a few days after it came out, and started to mine bitcoin when you could mine hundreds of bitcoins/day on an old PC.

I mined thousands of coins in 2009. Then I gave most of my coins to friends to get them on board, and used the rest to pay for the first generation of services payable in bitcoin. Once I paid 100 bitcoins for a subscription to a VPN that I almost never used.

My first reaction to Satoshi’s white paper was like, here’s a possibly viable implementation of an internet currency independent of nation states, which can be used for online payments with strong privacy. My current description of bitcoin is exactly the same.

It’s really unfortunate that bitcoin has been and still is considered only as a speculative investment by almost everyone.

Serious investors differentiate between technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis tries to evaluate the real, intrinsic value of a stock. The idea is that, if a company is solid and offers useful products and services that the world needs and uses, sooner or later its stock will go up.

Fundamental analysis focuses on real value and utility, as opposed to self-referential bubbles, overhyped temporary trends, and outright scams.

Fundamental analysis says that Bitcoin is worthless because it’s not used for payments as Satoshi intended. The vast majority of holders consider bitcoin as a speculative investment, never spend a single satoshi when the price is going up, and panic-sell when the price goes down.

Therefore, bitcoin is a self-referential bubble, and we know what happens to self-referential bubbles. If nobody wants to use bitcoin for payments, merchants are not motivated to accept bitcoin, and we have a negative feedback loop.

I’m persuaded that, at the end of the day, the market value of bitcoin is determined by its usability and utility as fast, private and secure digital cash. If bitcoin doesn’t take off as digital cash, I don’t think it will thrive (or even survive).

The way ahead

So my advice is: DON’T HODL, for fuck’s sake (and learn spelling). USE your coins to pay merchants or, even better, to pay individuals. SUPPORT the bitcoin economy by participating in it. This will make the world a better place and, sooner or later, also increase the value of your coins. But none of that will happen if you continue to hodl.

To increase the value of your coins, spend them!

Back to blockchain technology, it’s true that it has many useful applications beyond payments. But in most real-world application cases, blockchain technology is still very much of a solution in search of a problem.

It can be argued that those who try to sell overhyped blockchain technology where it’s not a perfect fit are threatening its credibility and making it more difficult to promote it as a viable solution where it really works.

No, blockchain technology will not cure cancer and prevent earthquakes. Blockchain technology will be part of good solutions to important problems, but this will take time. In the meantime, you can promote potentially useful blockchains by using (not hodling) the associated cryptocurrencies.

Picture from Pixabay.