What will US Education look like in 2023?

Positive trends are on the horizon for students and teachers.

The National Center for Education Statistics recently reported projections of various education statistics to 2023. The data shows trends in government spending and the composition of the classroom, considering national demographic and economic projections.

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Growing student enrollment in the public sector

Total K-12 school enrollment is projected to increase by about 4% between 2016 and 2023, slightly below the 2014 projected population growth of about 5.6% for the same time period. Interestingly, private school enrollment is expected to increase by approximately 1%.

Note: Private school numbers include private nursery and prekindergarten enrollment in schools that offer kindergarten or higher grades

More Teachers in the Public System

In anticipation of the growing student enrollment in the public education system, more teachers will be needed to meet demand. Note that this data does not factor in the number of teachers due to the effects of government policies.

Data for teachers are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTE)

Pupil/teacher ratio is dropping

The increase in 2008–2009 of pupil to teacher ratio is likely due to the 2008 economic crisis and layoffs. It is interesting that the data shows a static ratio leading up to the future projections.

Data for teachers are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTE)

No change in high school graduates overall

Averaging projected high school graduation rates across the country reveals no change in overall graduation rates. On a regional basis however, there is variance of 5% or more in some areas.

Includes graduates of regular day school programs. Excludes graduates of other programs, when separately reported, and recipients of high school equivalency certificates. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers.

Steady growth in public school expenditure

With the exception of the 2008–2012 school years, expenditure in public education appears to follow a steady increase year over year.

Numbers were placed in constant dollars using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics: Projections of Education Statistics to 2023. U.S. Department of Education.

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