What Europe’s 2024 Elections Mean for Tech Policy
Opportunity for agreement on European competitiveness and a stronger single market
The 2024 European Parliament elections that closed on Sunday represent an important bellwether for the shape of EU politics, informing what is to come for the next five years.
These elections determine the members (MEPs) from 27 countries who, although they do not initiate legislation, play a crucial role in crafting it. They have limited oversight over European Commission enforcement, but in recent years MEPs have been aggressive in expanding that role through political pressure and non-binding reports.
Over the past five years, the EU has passed significant tech regulation in the form of the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the Digital Markets Act (DMA). These regulations aim to ensure fair competition and online safety. However, there’s growing concern across from industry and political leaders about the increased regulatory burdens on businesses and the sluggish pace of economic growth. Many argue that the EU’s ambitious digital agenda, while well-intentioned, is stifling innovation and imposing unnecessary costs on companies, encouraging them to focus their investment elsewhere.
So how do the election results inform the cost of doing business in Europe and the European digital policy agenda?
Election Results and Political Shifts
The 2024 European Parliament election provisional results brought notable changes in the political landscape. The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) secured 186 seats, up from 176 in the previous parliament, solidifying its position as the leading party. The centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) obtained 135 seats, a slight decrease from 139 seats, maintaining its status as the second-largest group. Slightly more centrist Renew dropped significantly from 102 to 79 seats.
Meanwhile, far-right parties like the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) also increased their presence. The ECR gained four seats, reaching 73, while ID’s share increased to 58 seats from 49. There are additional around 100 seats that are not yet aligned with a party, roughly half of which will likely align with a particular party (for example 14 seats from Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland are likely to join ID). Despite these gains, the relative strength in the wider parliament (720 seats) remains limited, and the far-right, while largely anti-EU, remains divided over different priorities.
Once a rising force in European politics, the Greens suffered notable losses, particularly in France and Germany. In France, the Greens lost much of their previous support, failing to resonate with voters amidst a significant shift towards far-right parties. Similarly, in Germany, the Greens saw a substantial decline in vote share.
The Greens have encountered difficulties in maintaining their political momentum and addressing voters’ shifting priorities amidst rising costs, inflationary concerns, and the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These setbacks underscore the reaction of voters once actual green policies have been implemented (one of the hallmarks of the outgoing Commission has been the “Green Deal”, which is seen as hostile to Europe’s manufacturing base), and the incorporation of their most popular policies in mainstream parties. In the future we can probably expect a bit more “deal” in that equation.
The success of the centrist coalition highlights the stability and resilience of traditional centrist parties. The EPP and S&D, despite slight fluctuations in seat numbers, continued to dominate, despite facing significant headwinds. Ultimately, the far-right only made significant gains in a few countries, though worrying those include France and Germany. Thankfully, this means that, for now, the centre coalition can still pursue its agenda without relying on extreme factions for support.
The implications of these results for Ursula von der Leyen’s re-election as European Commission President are significant. The EPP’s strong performance enhances her chances of securing a second term. There were rumblings of her reappointment facing potential hurdles, including opposition from French president Emmanuel Macron. A coalition with the Greens could have bolstered her support, but she seemed more inclined to negotiate with the far-right, causing backlash from traditional allies (and forcing a retreat).
Despite these challenges, the election results mean a coalition extending beyond the traditional centre won’t be necessary. Ursula von der Leyen is the candidate of the largest vote-getting party, and her strongest critic, Emmanuel Macron has decided to dissolve the French parliament, in response to a poor electoral showing from his party in France. Her path to re-election now appears smoother than anticipated. This political context suggests that the overall direction of European policy is likely to remain steady.
Technology and Digital Policy
The 2024 EU election results will inevitably influence the direction of tech policy within the Union. The strengthened EPP, with its pro-business stance, is expected to continue advocating for policies that support economic growth and innovation. However, the EPP’s approach to the tech sector is complex.
While they talk about promoting a business-friendly environment, they have also been strong advocates for stringent regulations like the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and other measures targeting major US tech companies that European SMEs use to access the single market. This somewhat hypocritical approach shows that while they support business interests broadly, they are primarily focused on protectionism for the largest European players and industries, and less concerned with the interests of SMEs and the wider tech ecosystem.
Far-right parties have expressed clear dissatisfaction with the Digital Services Act (DSA), advocating for its renegotiation. They argue that the DSA needs to be revised to better protect fundamental rights and provide clearer definitions of terms like hate speech, which they consider too vague and open to misuse. Far-right representatives, including Belgian MEP Tom Vandendriessche and French National Rally MEP Mathilde Androuët, have been vocal about these concerns, particularly on their key issue of immigration. Though given their limited political power, it’s unlikely that they’ll make much progress.
The Pirate Party, known for its strong stance against digital advertising and proprietary ecosystems, suffered significant losses, dropping from three seats to one in the Czech Republic (where it has historically been one of the more popular parties). Prominent lawmaker Marcel Kolaja, who was even considered as the next Czech commissioner, did not win his seat. Similarly, the German Pirates’ representative, Anja Hirschel, also failed to get elected.
The Pirates were instrumental in pushing for interoperability provisions in the DMA, but their electoral losses may indicate that voters are prioritizing immediate economic issues over niche concerns around the design of technological infrastructure. This, along with losses by other MEPs that had a strong focus on digital issues, suggest a broader trend towards more pressing economic and political issues.
Potential Wariness of New Tech Regulation
The strengthened position of the pro-business EPP, combined with the loss of seats for tech-focused MEPs, and the rise of the anti-regulation far-right, suggests politicians may be wary of dramatically increasing intervention in the digital economy. The existing laws, like GDPR, DSA and DMA are on the books and will be enforced, and the EU Parliament’s oversight role over implementation is limited, so it’s unlikely that we will see a significant shift in course. But an impact will likely be felt at the margins, and there will be more room to have a substantive debate about the future of European tech policy.
A balanced approach that fosters innovation and investment while protecting citizens is essential. The centrist coalition will likely find agreement on mechanisms to improve single-market integration, and overcome far-right objections. Attracting top talent and venture capital remains an industry priority, and may be well-suited to EPP’s positioning, but will have a difficult path forward.
That said, the election of a new European Parliament is just the first step. The political parties and national political leaders will now engage in a series of negotiations to determine the top jobs and committee seats in parliament. EU leaders are scheduled to meet informally mid-June to discuss leadership roles, with some decisions expected to be finalised during the 27–28 June European Council meetings (though the pending French elections may cause delay). The final decision on the president of the European Commission, and the distribution of commissioner positions among Member States, will be a significant influence on the EU’s future policy directions; many key decisions are still on the horizon.
One unifying idea however, appears to be the concern around European competitiveness, with major reports from Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi (both former Italian prime ministers), stimulating a much wider discussion across the political spectrum. While green and digital agendas were priorities in the last Commission (both of which arguably hampered growth in industrial efficiency in Europe), there seems to be a growing acknowledgement that a different path is necessary.
Hopefully the next Commission embraces the fact that supporting a robust and competitive tech sector in Europe, and making sure Europeans have access to the best digital tools in the world, is the best way to become more competitive, and ultimately, electoral success.
Chamber of Progress (progresschamber.org) is a center-left tech industry association promoting technology’s progressive future. We work to ensure that all people benefit from technological leaps, and that the tech industry operates responsibly and fairly.
Our work is supported by our corporate partners, but our partners do not sit on our board of directors and do not have a vote on or veto over our positions. We do not speak for individual partner companies and remain true to our stated principles even when our partners disagree.
