The Self-Defeating Prophecy (And How It Works)
One less discussed type of unintended consequence is the “self-defeating prophecy,” or “self-negating prediction,” where the existence of a prediction or belief ultimately leads to the opposite of what is expected.
By Paul Orlando
I write these posts to call attention to common phenomena that make the world work differently than we might think. One less discussed type of unintended consequence is the “self-defeating prophecy,” or “self-negating prediction,” where the existence of a prediction or belief ultimately leads to the opposite of what is expected.
I think of this phenomenon as a tortoise and hare situation. Not the “slow and steady” part, but instead that the unexpected nature of who would win a tortoise-hare race is baked into the participants’ behavior. The hare only stops to rest because it is so obvious that it will win, which in turn becomes the reason it loses.
That’s what happens with self-defeating predictions. That is, self-defeating predictions come from the belief that in the future X will happen, which leads to the opposite of X happening. The prediction itself leads to behavior change which in turn changes the outcome. This is a…
