Change Research Calls NJ & VA Statewide Races Within 3 Points or Closer

Change Research
Nov 11, 2017 · 3 min read

In the week prior to the election, there were 17 public polls on the Virginia gubernatorial election. Change Research was one of only three polling firms to forecast the election within three points.

  • New Jersey GovernorPhil Murphy wins by 13; Change Research projected a 16-point win.
  • Virginia Governor — Ralph Northam wins by 9; Change Research projected a 6-point win.
  • Virginia Lt. Governor — Justin Fairfax wins by 5; Change Research projected a 5-point win — the most accurate prediction among pollsters.
  • Virginia Attorney General — Mark Herring wins by 7; Change Research projected a 6-point win — coming within 0.5 percent of the final result — the most accurate prediction among pollsters.

Visit our website for more details on these polls.

VA-50 Goes to Carter; PA Sees First Democratic African American Woman Elected Statewide; Challengers for NJ Ward Council Seats Rely on Change Research

Change Research worked to introduce itself to forward-thinking candidates and campaigns in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Here are a few of the ways they used Change Research:

  • In VA-50, the consensus was the incumbent Republican would win. Change Research ran four polls for Democratic challenger Lee Carter that showed him ahead or tied. He used the results to inform messaging, learn which demographics he needed to spend time with and drive donations. He won by 9.
  • Carolyn Nichols, a Pennsylvania Superior Court candidate, used a Change Research poll to test messages and identify voters. In a close race, she came in third among nine candidates. Change Research correctly predicted the order of the top three candidates. Carolyn Nichols is the first Democratic African American woman to win statewide office in Pennsylvania history.
  • Mo (Moriah) Kinberg ran against a popular incumbent for Ward D Councilperson in Jersey City. An uphill battle from the beginning, Mo lost this contest, but used Change Research creatively to survey 400 residents of Ward D to try to close the gap. In a race where just over 4,000 ballots were cast, our poll sample was 10% of the size of the voting population (400+), and we ran it for under $4K. Final prediction: 62–30; actual results: 58–30.

Size Matters in Polling Samples:

  • In Virginia, Change Research ran an online poll of 3,648 voters, 3–4x the size of most other statewide polls. The next largest poll had 1,450 voters.
  • In New Jersey, Change Research polled 2,040 voters, while the next largest public polling sample was 1,049.

Change Research, a public benefit corporation, provides fast, affordable and accurate technology-based polling to forward-thinking campaigns and causes. Contact us today to see how we can help you: info@changeresearch.com

Change Research

Latest poll results, methodology thoughts, and company news from Change Research.

Change Research

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Change Research

Latest poll results, methodology thoughts, and company news from Change Research.

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