New Poll: Howard Schultz’ Impact on 2020 and Pence vs. Trump
A Howard Schultz run would hurt the chances of 2020 Democratic contenders, and Mike Pence performs about as well as Trump (and sometimes better) in general election matchups. These new insights and more emerged from Change Research’s national poll of 4,049 registered voters conducted March 8–10.
Click here for full poll toplines.
Howard Schultz: An Existential Threat to Democrats in 2020
Consistent with our previous polling on Howard Schultz, the potential independent candidate hurts the prospects of all potential Democratic contenders in a race against Donald Trump. Most dramatically, a long-shot Schultz run would likely allow Trump to win the popular vote against Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke, or Elizabeth Warren:
Schultz received only 4 to 7 percent of the vote in each hypothetical general election matchup, and the majority (between 50–63 percent) of those votes come from supporters who would otherwise vote for the Democratic candidate. Against any Democratic candidate other than Joe Biden, only a quarter of Schultz’ supporters are voters who would otherwise choose Trump. The Schultz spoiler effect is most pronounced in a match-up with a generic Democratic nominee or Beto O’Rourke; in both cases, over 60 percent of Schultz’ votes would come from those who would otherwise vote from the Democratic candidate in a two-way race:
Vice President Pence: Preferable Personal Attributes, Less Trustworthy with Executive Power
Overall, Pence scores better than Trump on personal attributes:
- 29 percent of all voters believe that Pence is a “very good” role model for children, while only 18 percent say the same for Trump. 51 percent of voters believe that Trump is a “very bad” role model for children, compared to 35 percent for Pence.
- 31 percent of voters rate Pence’s “personal morals or ethics” as “Excellent,” compared to 17 percent for Trump. Amongst Republicans, 67 percent feel that Pence’s morals are “Excellent,” compared to 37 percent for Trump:
However, voters prefer Trump to Pence when it comes to specific executive skills:
- In “Negotiating with foreign leaders,” 41 percent of all voters indicate that they trust Trump most, with only 5 percent selecting Pence. The difference is even more pronounced amongst Republican voters, 89 percent of whom trust Trump more compared to only 9 percent for Pence.
- Trump and Pence draw more similar levels of trust for “Working with Congress to pass laws,” though all voters still prefer Trump (26 percent) to Pence (16 percent). 57 percent of Republicans prefer Trump, while 32 percent trust Pence more.
- In “Acting as Commander in Chief,” 40 percent of all voters trust Trump most, with only 6 percent selecting Pence. Republican voters select Trump over Pence at a margin of 84 to 9 percent.
Among all registered voters, Pence fares comparably to Trump when matched up to a slate of Democratic presidential candidates in 2020. In fact, Pence does better than Trump when matched against a generic Democratic nominee, Bernie Sanders, Beto O’Rourke, and Elizabeth Warren:
Intensity of Opinion about National Figures
Voters have intense feelings, skewed negative, about national political figures. The following chart depicts the difference of strong favorable opinions amongst members of the figure’s own party and strong unfavorable opinions amongst voters of the opposite party. Unsurprisingly, Trump is the most polarizing figure in American politics, followed by Pence and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Senator Mitch McConnell shows the largest range of opinion: Democrats are strongly unfavorable toward him, and he has little strong support amongst Republicans.
Change Research surveyed 4,049 likely 2020 voters from March 8–10. The survey was conducted online, using Change Research’s Bias Correct Engine. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, and 2016 presidential vote. The margin of error, as traditionally calculated, is ± 2.5%.
This is one of over 100 polls Change Research will be conducting this year on the 2020 election. Most will be available to subscribers only. Please contact us for more information.
