Why Climate Change should be Our Topmost Concern
“Life is a beautiful thing, as long as I hold the string
I’d be a silly so and so, if I should ever let go”— Frank Sinatra
We hold the string still and it will be more than silly to let it go. We can still take charge and lessen the adverse effects of climate change. Even now it is not too late. According to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we have time till 2030 to radically cut down the annual emission of 40 billion tons of CO2 and to limit global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius from the pre-industrial levels. That is seemingly the only way to save ourselves from a climate catastrophe. Even otherwise, earth will survive but mankind will find it very difficult to do so.
In 2006, I was about to return to India after completing my postdoctoral stint at University of Copenhagen. My professor cautiously advised me to be wary of malaria since I was in Denmark, a relatively mosquito free country for few years and my immunity might have been compromised. India being a tropical country can’t escape from mosquitoes. Now I wonder if it were today, would he give me the same advice. I have my reasons to think so. Temperate countries are fast becoming like tropical countries due to the climate change. And mosquitoes are going to spread there too. A recent study estimates that one billion people more would be exposed to mosquito-borne diseases by 2080 due to warming associated with climate change. It says that countries in Europe would be the most affected with diseases like Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya reaching its shores. The study also says that mosquito-borne diseases will decrease in the tropics because further warming to these already hot regions can’t be tolerated by mosquitoes. Unfortunately, this is only one of the damaging effects of climate change. In this article, I have tried to provide a bird’s-eye view of climate change and its overbearing negative impact on our present and future.
Earth is certainly warming on an unprecedented scale. Even if the climate cynics want us to believe otherwise and even if we see more of snow and floods in some parts of the world recently, the sad fact is that earth is still heating up. In fact, abnormal warming of the Arctic is the reason behind the unusually heavy snow and flooding in some parts of the northern hemisphere. Rising sea levels, erratic and extreme weather events, super storms and wildfires are all signs of changing climate. It will imperil the future of humanity bit by bit. There is no denial about it. Both climate advocates as well as climate deniers easily agree upon this fact even if they don’t agree about its cause. But how are we going to get affected by climate change? Decline in food security for the world is one adverse effect for sure. In an unlikeliest of a scenario, we were taught a great lesson in the Arctic wilderness about what can happen when food become scarce. In January and February 2019, groups of Polar Bears came visiting a village on the Novaya Zemlya islands in northern Russia. They came for raiding the garbage bins in search of food. But it spooked the people over there and street patrols were set up. Fortunately, there were no reports of killing any of those poor famished creatures. After all, what was their fault? They could not hunt for their food in their natural habitat because they could not move around due to the melting of sea ice. So they were forced to scavenge through the garbage bins in the village. Most of us who have not experienced hunger can’t comprehend the piercing pain of it. It is one of the most dreadful miseries one can face in one’s life, be it for an animal or for a human. When hungry, polar bears could rummage the garbage. What would a man do in such a situation?
Surge in Hunger and Famine
In our unequal world, hunger reigns in many countries and climate change is intensifying this imbalance. More and more people are getting deprived of food due to increasing incidents of droughts, floods and so on. What will the hungry do to sustain themselves? Should they scavenge the garbage bins like polar bears? Should they go ahead and loot for food? Food riots have been happening in poor and under developed countries over the years. More recently, we have seen people of Paris riot over increase in taxes meant to combat climate change. On the contrary, in India, helpless farmers affected by the continuing drought over the years commit suicide in large numbers when their crops fail. They do not go and riot, they just succumb to the pressure quietly as if it is their destiny. But their sad plight and subsequent suicides are direct assaults on our ethics and morals. I do not know what emboldens the people in developed countries to congregate and revolt against the governments even for a raise in tax rates, while the heavily deprived, suppressed and subdued poorest of the people in the developing and poor countries don’t dare to do so. Perhaps the sense of entitlement of the people in rich countries does the trick. But when push comes to shove, people in poor countries too will resist their submissiveness and rise against the inequality. If and when it happens in more populated countries like India, China and Pakistan, things will go out of control and it can affect the entire world. And possibility of such a situation arising is imminent with the continued melting of the glaciers in the Hindu Kush and Himalaya mountain ranges. Even if the world succeed in restricting global warming within the 1.5C range as stipulated by the Paris Agreement, 36% of the glaciers in the said mountain ranges will disappear by 2100. If the emissions are not restricted, the loss of glaciers will rise even to 75%. Both the situations are scary as these glaciers are the lifelines of the rivers on which depend the lives of nearly 2 billion people who live downstream in China, India, Pakistan and other countries. Any reduction in flow of water in those rivers will jeopardize the livelihoods of those people and the resultant strife and unrest can end up in direct conflicts between countries, some of which are nuclear powers. Certainly we do not want that to happen.
Why to look into the future when we can clearly see what damage food shortages due to climate change can do even to entire countries in the very recent past. An unusual winter drought in 2010 in the wheat growing region of eastern China drastically reduced wheat production. Unfortunately, in 2010, climate played spoilsport in other wheat growing regions too. Drought in Russia and Ukraine, severe cold and rains in Canada and excessive and extreme rains in Australia together created a wheat shortage world over. And China started stockpiling wheat. In 6–7 months, wheat prices doubled. Middle Eastern countries where bread is the staple food started to bear the brunt. It all started with the unfortunate self-immolation of a young fruit vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi in front of a government building in a rural town in Tunisia. The video of the incident spread fast on the social media spurring widespread unrest all over Tunisia. Soon the strife spread to neighboring countries and snowballed into a region wide rebellion which came to be known as the Arab Spring. Because of it, unpopular and oppressive regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen were overturned. The role played by the harmful effects of climate change in the whole episode often remains understated though.
Climate Change: A Catalyst to Terrorism
Rise of terrorism and forced migration are two dangers associated with climate change which the world is facing now. It has become quite commonplace now days for extreme events like hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons and wild fires or extreme droughts or floods to strike and take the livelihoods away from the poor across the world. When governments are also of no help, some of these unfortunate are forced to take up arms and to join the extremists who can provide a livelihood in return. The famine and poverty emanating from the drying up of Lake Chad in North Africa makes the region one of the most fertile breeding grounds for Boko Haram. Syria has become one of the foremost recruiting grounds for Isis because of years of drought and ensuing poverty and misery over there. With climate change, terrorism will surge in distressed regions and it will knock on the doors of the rich countries with increasing frequency.
“Cligration”: Migration intensified by Climate Change
The current U.S. president made the arrival of migrant wagons from the drought stricken Central American countries towards the U.S. a strong cause for building a wall across its southern border. Most of the Central American countries are reeling under extreme climate conditions and it is the root cause of this mass migration. Extreme fluctuations in temperature along with dangerous and unpredictable rains resulting in heavy flooding all make farming a very trying and non-paying occupation in those countries. Often farmers are the immediate casualties of extreme weather incidents. They are often forced to borrow money from the local mafia which leave them heavily indebted. Left with no other livelihood options and with debt to be repaid, these people want to migrate to the U.S. Nearly fifty thousand families from Guatemala were detained at the U.S. border in 2018 along with an increasing number of unaccompanied children. The story of migration from El Salvador and Honduras are no different either. Perhaps you and I should try and find out if we can survive even a single day without food. Maybe it is the only way to understand the plight of immigrants.
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions cause the warming and associated climatic anomalies. Most of the affected countries in Central America and elsewhere are poor countries and they account for only minuscule amount of GHG emissions. The U.S. has been historically the most prolific GHG emitter and still ranks second. If the GHG emissions due to the imported goods too are considered, probably the U.S. will still be the largest GHG emitter. Climate change doesn’t discriminate between the largest emitters and smallest emitters; it strikes everywhere but unfortunately, the poor countries who also are low emitters are hit disproportionately. Their pain is compounded by the lack of a support system by their governments. When immigrants from such countries arrive at our borders, it’s easy to condemn them, but it would take lot of courage and conviction to help them. We should not run away from our responsibilities as fellow human beings. It is high time to realize that over-consumption of nature’s resources by the rich minority is the root cause of climate change. It is an undeclared assault on the rights to safe livelihoods for the poor and deprived majority. It will have unintended yet risky consequences which can endanger the lives of millions of people all over the world. A more democratic outlook by the people in rich countries towards consumption and conservation can make the earth a better place for all. According to the UN, there are about 64 million forced migrants in our world today and this number will rise to about 200 million by the year 2050 if we don’t stop the climate change calamity. Even if the cause for forced displacement of people can be anything from war, persecution or natural disasters, the underlying role played by climate change in it cannot be downplayed. If we do that, it will be at our own peril. Mass migrations can lead to class wars and it can unsettle civilizations.
Land Grab by Sea: Water world on the anvil
Rise in sea levels is an unavoidable consequence of global warming. Global sea levels which used to be at a constant for thousands of years started to rise in the past century. It is due to the thermal expansion caused by warming and due to the melting glaciers at the poles and in Greenland. The ocean level has risen by 4–8 inches in the past century. It is now rising faster at double the rate annually compared to the last century and is expected to rise faster with increase in global warming. A few inches of rise in sea levels might not seem to be that important. But combined with warming waters, it has increased the frequency of super storms with stronger storm surges which can reach farther inland with disastrous costs. It is estimated that in the last 50 years or so, the frequency of high tide flooding or “nuisance” flooding has increased up to 900% on the coastal areas in the U.S. causing large scale disruption and losses to the communities living there. Considering the fact that eight of the largest cities in the world are coastal cities, global sea rise is going to cost massive disturbances in the days to come.
If ocean warming is not contained, by the end of the century, 17.5 million people in Shanghai will be displaced by rising sea levels. So will be 8.4 million people in Hong Kong, 5.2 million people in Osaka, Japan, 3.0 million people in Alexandria, Egypt, 2.5 million people in The Hague, Netherlands, 2.7 million people in Miami, USA and 1.8 million people in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In terms of total people affected, China will come first with nearly 50.5 million of its population affected. With 47% of its population affected, Netherlands will be the most affected in terms of percentage of population affected. We are going to need a sea change in our attitude towards climate change and need to act fast in order to save ourselves from the rage of the seas.
Water, water everywhere!
Kerala is often called ‘God’s Own Country’ and very rightly so. Lying along the western coast towards the southern tip of peninsular India, Kerala is known for its picturesque back waters, gorgeous and gently rolling hills filled with verdant evergreen forests and stunningly beautiful beaches full of sun and sand which allures travelers from all over world in millions every year. Monsoons which reach Kerala coast in the first week of June every year without fail drapes the land in lush greenery and makes it even more enchanting. You should visit Kerala at least once and if possible in the month of June. Monsoons typically last till August every year and it is usually a time to revel and marvel in the splendor of the scenic beauty. But monsoon of 2018 was clearly a different one when the beauty of the monsoon took a turn for the worse and mutated itself into a beast. The state received about 75% more than the usual rainfall during the period and on August 8th; state received an unprecedented 310 mm of rain. Rains continued unabated in the subsequent days too and 35 of the 54 dams in the state were forced to open their shutters which resulted in a deluge which submerged almost all of the state. Nearly 500 people died and the losses due to the floods were to the tune of $5 billion. Over one million people were evacuated to safer places. The state has not witnessed such an amount of rainfall in more than one hundred years.
What happened in Kerala during monsoon of 2018 cannot be brushed aside as an oddity anymore. Extreme floods and rainfall events like what happened in Kerala have increased by more than 50% in this decade alone. If we consider such events from 1980s, their frequency has increased to four times from then to now. Earth’s atmosphere is warming and warmer air can carry lot more water vapor. With each degree of warming, the atmosphere can hold 7 percent more water vapor. This increases the deadliness of the super storms many fold since they can carry much more water than what they used to do. One look at the severity of some of the storms and floods in the past decade, will tell the story. Cyclone Idai, caused severe flooding which killed more than one thousand people and affected more than three million people across Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. The 2019 Iran floods which turn out to be the worst in the country’s history left more than 70 people dead and destroyed more than 750 bridges and nearly 14000 kilometers of roads. Total loss is expected to be in the range of $2.5 billion. A decade or so back, who would have imagined such a massive flood could occur in the Middle East? With changing climate, anything is possible.
When disasters strike it will render everyone helpless even in helping affected people. The 2005 Hurricane Katrina is a prime example for the governments being rendered toothless in front of a climate catastrophe. That we don’t stand a chance against nature is made evident when the levees and flood walls constructed at a cost of $14 billion to protect New Orleans started sinking which will render it ineffective in the next 4–5 years. Land equivalent to a football field is being lost in New Orleans coast every hour and a half and the infrastructure team is scratching their heads wondering how to save the coast. Even the mightiest of the governments and their technologies will remain meek in front of the might and fury of Mother Nature.
When it comes to floods, superlatives are not enough to describe them as their severity is getting increased many times with each passing year. In March and April 2019, within a month’s time, the U.S. Midwest was literally bombed by a ‘bomb cyclone’ and another monstrous winter storm, leading to ‘Biblical scale flooding’, causing one of the worst agricultural disasters in modern U.S. history. It will take years for the farmers of the region to recover. Europe was not spared either in 2018, with parts of Italy, Spain, France, Portugal and UK all getting flooded with many lives being lost along with massive agricultural losses. The 2019 Townsville flood in Australia stands out with the death of 660000 cattle and $2 billion in damages. The 2018 Japan floods, 2018 East Africa floods and 2018 Vietnam and North Korean floods were all out of ordinary and set records in the respective countries for their intensities and for the damage caused. And they came in quick succession in far and wide regions across the world, pointing to the role played by warming oceans and climate change.
When more than 15 inches of rain falls within a day in a busy city, it will wreak havoc to the system and inundate and immobilize the whole city. It is what happened in Rio de Janeiro on 8th and 9th April this year causing a number of fatalities along with it. This kind of extreme weather incidents is another footprint of climate change which is occurring with increasing frequency across the world, be it in Kerala, India or Queensland, Australia. People are caught unaware and get trapped within no time. Another of the tell-tale signs of the destructive effects of climate change is the increasing incidence and strength of the super storms. Hurricane Maria, a Category 5 hurricane that devastated Puerto Rico in September 2017 killed nearly 3000 people and caused losses to the extent of $90 billion. Hurricane Harvey a category 4 hurricane hit Houston in 2017 was low on casualties, but the infrastructure and other losses were to the tune of $125 billion. In 2017, just three hurricanes, Harvey, Maria and Irma inflicted losses of $265 billion. Imagine what this kind of repeating losses can do to the economy. Climate change projections suggest that the number of intense hurricanes will rise and the reach and range of those super storms will extend even to unconventional areas like what hurricane Sandy did in 2012. Hurricane Sandy took a deviation from the normal path by taking a westward turn and ended up pounding New Jersey and New York coasts causing losses to the tune of US$ 71 billion. Ireland was hit in a rare case by hurricane Ophelia in 2017 and scientists say that this kind of outliers may become more common in the future. Large inland lakes like the Great Lakes can also generate hurricanes in the future like the 1996 Lake Huron cyclone and can affect inland cities and farm lands. We will probably need a new category to classify the super storms because in the future, they will possibly exceed the speed of Category 5 storms which are currently the swiftest. Those monstrous super storms will bring unimaginable storm surges and initiate super floods which will inundate lands far interior than we can ever imagine. Life, if it can survive, be it anywhere on the planet, will be very unsafe and hazardous. There will be no place on earth to hide if changing climate decides to play against us.
Drought brings everything to a naught
Years of drought and famine come and years of flood and famine come, and the climate is not changed with dance, libation or prayer.
— John Wesley Powell
During its heydays, the British Empire was hailed as the one where the sun never sets. If drought is to be considered as a kingdom, it has far exceeded the reach ever accomplished by the British Empire. It is now ruling far and wide across all the continents barring Antarctica. Last year it has even ravaged the Arctic Tundra forests with wildfires. Arctic is about snow and ice and see what climate change is doing to its image. Droughts have been occurring all throughout the recorded human history. But the kind the world experienced in 2018 in vast swathes of lands across many countries was unlike any. Cape Town in South Africa hogged the limelight albeit in a wicked way, as severe drought threatened the city of reaching “Day Zero” — when the city’s taps were due to run dry. Luckily, the weather gods showed benevolence and the city was spared of that infamy. But across almost all the continents, conditions were turning out to be equally grim. At one point, drought affected about 90% of German territory in 2018. Most of Australia was reeling under drought for many years and 2018 made it even worse. Wildfires across Australia are a fait accompli its citizens have to live with. So is the case for California where wildfires were the deadliest ever in recorded history in 2018. About 8,527 fires were recorded which together burned of 1,893,913 acres of forests. As of March, 2019, about 42 percent of India’s land area was facing drought affecting more than 500 million people. The unusually severe drought of 2018 in Europe left farms from Scandinavia and England in the north to France, Netherlands, and Germany to the south high and dry and losses in crop production were unprecedented. The accompanying heat wave was five times more deadly, likely due to climate change leading to hundreds of death. Water levels in Rhine River receded so much that shipping became impossible. BASF, the world’s biggest chemical company alone lost around $281 million since it had to stop production because transport through the Rhine was not possible. Across the Atlantic, California’s largest power company Pacific Gas & Electric Corp has declared bankruptcy due to accumulation of billions of dollars in liabilities caused by the catastrophic wildfires of 2018. Further across the Pacific, a record-breaking heatwave covering Japan, Korea and China resulted in more than 100 deaths and hospitalization of tens of thousands of people. The list goes on and on, but it is sufficient to say that world is becoming a far dangerous place to live due to intensified droughts and wildfires caused by the changing climate patterns.
Extinction is the new Existential Threat
Bramble Cay is a small nondescript island few acres in size located in the Great Barrier Reef. Due to sea level rise, the area above the high tide line has shrunk from 9.8 acres to 6.2 acres and Bramble Cay melomys (Melomys rubicola), a small rodent which was present only on the island have lost about 97 percent of its habitat. The rodent was officially declared as extinct in February, 2019, with the dubious distinction of being the first mammal to go extinct due to climate change. This might seems like a small aberration for some of us but it is the harbinger to the biodiversity devastation awaiting us. Climate change is clearly causing massive destruction to global biodiversity. A recent analysis of more than 115,000 species showed that if warming is limited to 2°C, 18% of insects, 16% of plants, and 8% of vertebrates will suffer from habitat losses of >50%. If we fail to restrict the warming and if the temperature rises to ~3.2°C, the numbers of species projected to lose >50% of their range rises to ~49% of insects, 44% of plants, and 26% of vertebrates. It is the most likely scenario given the current status of climate change mitigating efforts globally. Pollinators affect 35 percent of global agricultural land, supporting the production of 87 of the leading food crops worldwide. We can only hope that such a grand scale of insect loss as pointed out in the study will not happen. If that happens, hunger will reign again and man-made climate change will be one of the prime reasons behind it.
Negative Impact on Economy
Climate change is a clear and present danger which can ruin us ruthlessly. It can affect us indirectly in many ways. For example, insurance for the houses and buildings in the coastal areas which are prone to hurricanes and flooding has increased to non-affordable levels. From Shanghai to Mumbai to Miami, cost of insuring homes is skyrocketing. $2.5 trillion worth real estate assets in California alone are at risk of harm from climate change which is 135% of the current GDP of the state. As climate change intensifies, the losses accrued to GDP will increase disproportionately. A recent World Bank report says that by 2050, rising temperatures and weakened monsoons due to climate change could cost India up to 2.8% of GDP and reduce the living standards of nearly half the country’s population. Bank of England estimates that Climate change could wipe out $20 trillion of assets from the global financial system. Another study published in the Journal ‘Science’, estimates that if the warming continues unabated till 2100 it is possible that earth will be warmer by nearly 8.3°C (15°F) from the pre-industrial levels. This can inflict damages to the U.S. economy to the tune of 10% of the GDP. In 2018, the Real GDP of the U.S. was $18.765 trillion. We don’t know what the figure will be in 2100, but we know that the loss in GDP will be in trillions of USD if climate change continues unrestricted. There is a caveat here that the study also cautions us that the effective warming could be milder in the 1.1°C to 3.9°C range (2°F to 7°F range) and that the negative impact to GDP will be in the 1% to 4% range. We know that the global average temperature is already 1°C higher than pre-industrial levels. So you decide which scenario is more probable.
In a recent study the authors have estimated the market and non-market sectors will have a combined loss of 1.2% of GDP per 1°C increase in global mean temperature. Another study says that if global warming is not contained, average reduction in global incomes will be roughly 23% by 2100 and global income inequality will be widened further. Countries in the middle latitudes, closer to the equator, will be affected disproportionately and close to 800 million more people of South Asia will be dragged towards poverty. Negative effects on the GDP will be widespread across all the countries leading to economic ruin everywhere. Jobs will be lost, hunger will follow it and violence can erupt even in the developed countries. By the way, violent crime rates can rise with increase in temperatures and can aggravate the problem further.
Lessons from the Past
When what future holds for us is not very clear, perhaps a peek into the past can bring some clarity about it. The global average atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2017 was 405 ppm (parts per million), way above 280 ppm during the pre-industrial time. Due to fossil fuel burning by humans, we are now at 1℃ above pre-industrial temperature. When CO2 levels were this high about 3 million years ago, during the Pliocene era, the temperature was around 3°C (5.4°F) above the pre-industrial era temperatures. The Arctic temperature was 10°C above the current temperature levels and the global mean sea level was about 20 meters higher than today. Summer temperatures were around 5°C near the South Pole, compared to -20°C today. At this rate of global warming, we will reach those Pliocene levels of temperature and sea levels soon. It’s not a matter of if, but when and how soon. Do you want to hazard a guess as to which all coastal cities will be submerged by then? I am afraid that no guess will be a wild guess anymore. Do we have to go all that way and jeopardize the lives of our future generations? Isn’t it time that we all should change our priorities and plan for the safety of our children and their children?
Time for Action
A few chance mutations accumulated during the course of evolution resulted in the development of intelligence and allowed humanity to prosper unlike any other species in earth’s history. Ability to communicate followed and they started to live in groups, started farming and were able to plan for future. All these allowed humanity to dominate all other species for so long. Finally it looks like humanity has lost the Midas touch and its ability to plan for the future is receding. What else could explain the lack of understanding of what climate change can do to curtail and jeopardize our future? Majority of us are still wise enough to draw lessons from the tangible and devastating deviations we encounter in terms of climate extremes and we feel the want to change. But there is a large minority among us who pretend that climate change debate is a fictitious conspiracy contrived to destabilize the growth and progress of nations. Regrettably, the climate skeptics do not understand that there is no room for growth when the very survival our own species is threatened. Unfortunately those people hold some of the most important and powerful positions and are in a position to sway the collectively debated and deliberated decisions by concerned public, technocrats and scientists to mitigate climate change to their favor.
To save ourselves from the calamity of climate change, we have to change. But it is important that we convince the climate cynics too to change in our direction. We should elect only climate friendly politicians as our representatives in government. Otherwise dangerous decisions which have far reaching and dangerous consequences for humanity like withdrawing from the landmark 2015 Paris climate agreement will be taken at will without respecting the collective will of the people. For a secure future of humanity, we all have to act in unison to alleviate the already accrued anthropogenic damages inflicted upon our planet by our overt and unwarranted over-consumption. Over-consumption is the single biggest crime we commit towards nature. It changes the climate and it is the single most important existential threat to us and to our future generations. The only solution is to consume less (More on that later in another article). In Washington Gov. Jay Inslee’s words, “We’re the first generation to feel the sting of climate change. And we’re the last who can do something about it.” It is our responsibility to restrict global warming to less than 1.5°C from the pre-industrial levels. We all know it is not an easy task. But we have to act fast and act now. Else, climate change will turn out to be the anti-climax to the very exciting, and eventful story of human evolution. The story will end soon too.
“Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder.”
— Arnold J. Toynbee
